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Machine Learning and the Implementable Efficient Frontier

Review of Financial Studies 2026 open access
We propose that investment strategies should be evaluated based on their net-of-trading-cost return for each level of risk, which we term the “implementable efficient frontier.” While numerous studies use machine learning return forecasts to generate portfolios, their agnosticism toward trading costs leads to excessive reliance on fleeting small-scale characteristics, resulting in poor net returns. We develop a framework that produces a superior frontier by integrating trading-cost-aware portfolio optimization with machine learning. The superior net-of-cost performance is achieved by learning directly about portfolio weights using an economic objective. Further, our model gives rise to a new measure of “economic feature importance.”

Demand-Based Option Pricing

Review of Financial Studies 2009 22(10), 4259-4299 open access
We model the demand-pressure effect on prices when options cannot be perfectly hedged. The model shows that demand pressure in one option contract increases its price by an amount proportional to the variance of the unhedgeable part of the option. Similarly, the demand pressure increases the price of any other option by an amount proportional to the covariance of their unhedgeable parts.

Is Capital Structure Irrelevant with ESG Investors?

Review of Financial Studies 2025 38(8), 2362-2385 open access
This paper examines whether capital structure is irrelevant for enterprise value and investment when investors care about environmental, social, and governance issues, which we refer to as “ESG-Modigliani-Miller” (ESG-MM). Theoretically, we show that ESG-MM holds with linear pricing and additive ESG. ESG-MM means that issuing low-yielding green bonds does not lower the overall cost of capital because it makes the issuer’s other securities browner. Hence, a firm’s incentive to make a green investment does not depend on its financing choice. We provide suggestive evidence of failure of ESG-MM, implying that firms and governments can exploit inconsistent ESG attribution or segmented markets.

Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(7), 2729-2773 open access
Based on high-frequency data for more than fifty commodities, currencies, equity indices, and fixed-income instruments spanning more than two decades, we document strong similarities in realized volatility patterns within and across asset classes. Exploiting these similarities through panel-based estimation of new realized volatility models results in superior out-of-sample risk forecasts, compared to forecasts from existing models and conventional procedures that do not incorporate the similarities in volatilities. We develop a utility-based framework for evaluating risk models that shows significant economic gains from our new risk model. Lastly, we evaluate the effects of transaction costs and trading speed in implementing different risk models.Received March 7, 2016; editorial decision February 3, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2007 20(6), 1865-1900 open access
We provide the impact on asset prices of search-and-bargaining frictions in over-the-counter markets. Under certain conditions, illiquidity discounts are higher when counterparties are harder to find, when sellers have less bargaining power, when the fraction of qualified owners is smaller, or when risk aversion, volatility, or hedging demand is larger. Supply shocks cause prices to jump, and then “recover” over time, with a time signature that is exaggerated by search frictions: The price jump is larger and the recovery is slower in less liquid markets. We discuss a variety of empirical implications.