Knowledge that Transforms

Cross-country bank lending appears to be subject to market imperfections leading to persistent interest rate differentials. In a model where banks need to cope with liquidity shocks by borrowing or by liquidating assets, we study the scope for international interbank market integration with unsecured lending when cross-country information is noisy. We find that an equilibrium with integrated markets need not always exist, and that it may coexist with one characterized by segmentation. A repo market reduces interest rate spreads and improves upon the segmentation equilibrium. However, it may destroy the unsecured integrated equilibrium.

We develop a dynamic model of an order-driven market populated by discretionary liquidity traders. These traders must trade, yet can choose the type of order and are fully strategic in their decision. Traders differ by their impatience: less patient traders demand liquidity, more patient traders provide it. Three equilibrium patterns are obtained- the pattern is determined by three parameters: the degree of impatience of the patient traders, which we model as the cost of execution delay in providing liquidity; their proportion in the population, which determines the degree of competition among the liquidity providers; and the tick size, which is the cost of the minimal price improvement. Despite its simplicity, the model generates a rich set of empirical predictions on the relation between market parameters, time to execution, and spreads. We argue that the economic intuition of this model is so basic, its Limit and market orders constitute the core of any order-driven continuous trading

This paper explores liquidity movements in stock and Treasury bond markets over a period of more than 1800 trading days. Cross-market dynamics in liquidity are documented by estimating a vector autoregressive model for liquidity (that is, bid-ask spreads and depth), returns, volatility, and order flow in the stock and bond markets. We find that a shock to quoted spreads in one market affects the spreads in both markets, and that return volatility is an important driver of liquidity. Innovations to stock and bond market liquidity and volatility prove to be significantly correlated, suggesting that common factors drive liquidity and volatility in both markets. Monetary expansion increases equity market liquidity during periods of financial crises, and unexpected increases (decreases) in the federal funds rate lead to decreases (increases) in liquidity and increases (decreases) in stock and bond volatility. Finally, we find that flows to the stock and government bond sectors play an important role in forecasting stock and bond liquidity. The results establish a link between 'macro' liquidity, or money flows, and 'micro' or transactions liquidity.

Prices of interest rate derivative securities depend crucially on the mean reversion parameters of the underlying diffusions. These parameters are subject to estimation bias when standard methods are used. The estimation bias can be substantial even in very large samples and much more serious than the discretization bias, and it translates into a bias in pricing bond options and other derivative securities that is important in practical work. This article proposes a very general and computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on Quenouille's (1956; Biometrika, 43, 353–360) jackknife. We show how the method can be applied directly to the options price itself as well as the coefficients in the models. We investigate its performance in a Monte Carlo study. Empirical applications to U.S. dollar swap rates highlight the differences between bond and option prices implied by the jackknife procedure and those implied by the standard approach. These differences are large and suggest that bias reduction in pricing options is important in practical applications.

The proposed model, by incorporating both (1) banker screening of new issues and (2) costly evaluation by investors, is the first to admit endogenous double-sided information production. It demonstrates a nontrivial link between these two sides: the banker wishes to structure a sale conducive to investor research because selling to an uninformed pool would result in his own shirking. One application of this paradigm indicates that, contrary to the findings of most IPO models, larger investor pools are not always better. This result resolves the "participation restriction puzzle" of why bankers do not open sales to all bidders even when doing so would maximize competition and reduce underpricing. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

This article studies information acquisition through investment in improved risk assessment technology in competitive credit markets. A technology has two attributes: its ability to screen in productive borrowers, and its ability to screen out unproductive borrowers. The two attributes have fundamentally different effects on acquisition incentives and the structure of equilibrium informational externalities between lenders. The article also studies how uncertainty associated with the quality of superior technology affects information acquisition incentives. Uncertainty influences information acquisition even with risk-neutral banks. Increased uncertainty may raise or dampen incentives, depending on whether uncertainty is, respectively, about screening out or screening in quality. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Conference at the University of Michigan, and the AFA meetings for helpful comments and suggestions. We would especially like to acknowledge the insights and contributions that Ken Wiles (AppForge, Inc.) has provided to the paper. Anna Danielova and Andras Marosi provided excellent research assistance. Corporate Governance, Incentives, and Industry Consolidations Several changes, such as the advances in information technology and the advent of outsourcing, led to increases in optimal firm size in many fragmented industries over the last decade. This paper studies the determinants of the success of these industry consolidations using a unique sample of firms that were created at the time of their initial public offering: rollup-up IPOs. In these transactions, many small firms merge into a shell company, which goes public at the same time. This sample allows us to follow firms from the day they were established. We find that these firms deliver poor absolute and relative stock returns, on average. Their operating performance mimics that of other firms of the industry, but does not justify to their high initial valuations. However, the average performance hides substantial cross-sectional differences. If

This article develops an integrated model of asset pricing and moral hazard. It is demonstrated that the expected dollar return of a stock is independent of managerial incentives and idiosyncratic risk, but the equilibrium price of the stock depends on them. Thus, the expected rate of return is affected by managerial incentives and idiosyncratic risk. It is shown, however, that managerial incentives and idiosyncratic risk affect the expected rate of return through their influence on systematic risk rather than serve as independent risk factors. It is also shown that the risk aversion of the principal in the model leads to less emphasis on relative performance evaluation than in a model with a risk-neutral principal. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Because a money manager learns more about her skill from her management experience than outsiders can learn from her realized returns, she expects inefficiency in future contracts that condition exclusively on realized returns. A fund family that learns what the manager learns can reduce this inefficiency cost if the family is large enough. The family's incentive is to retain any given manager regardless of her skill but, when the family has enough managers, it adds value by boosting the credibility of its retentions through the firing of others. As the number of managers grows, the efficiency loss goes to zero. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.