Knowledge that Transforms

We find evidence of selective exposure to confirmatory information among 400,000 users on the investor social network StockTwits. Self-described bulls are five times more likely to follow a user with a bullish view of the same stock than are self-described bears. Consequently, bulls see 62 more bullish messages and 24 fewer bearish messages than bears do over the same 50-day period. These “echo chambers” exist even among professional investors and are strongest for investors who trade on their beliefs. Finally, beliefs formed in echo chambers are associated with lower ex post returns, more siloing of information, and more trading volume.

Big data technologies change the way in which data and labor combine to create knowledge. Is this a modest innovation or a data revolution? Using hiring and wage data, we estimate firms’ data stocks and their knowledge production functions. Quantifying changes in production functions informs us about the likely long-run changes in output, in factor shares, and in the distribution of income, due to big data technologies. For the investment management industry, our structural estimates predict a 5% decline in the labor share of income; that change is comparable to similar estimates for the industrial revolution. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online

Through a survey and analyses of observational data, we provide systematic evidence that institutional investors value and demand climate risk disclosures. The survey reveals the investors have a strong demand for climate risk disclosures, and many actively engage their portfolio firms for improvements. Empirical analyses of holdings data corroborate this evidence by showing a significantly positive association between climate-conscious institutional ownership and better firm-level climate risk disclosure. We establish further evidence of institutional investors’ influence on firms’ climate risk disclosures by examining a shock to the climate risk disclosure demand of French institutional investors (French Article 173). Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

We compare the investment of standalone firms across regions after a positive shock to the investment opportunities generated by a large-scale highway development project. We show that the standalones’ investment sensitivity is lower in regions with a higher density of business groups in the local area. We investigate mechanisms driving our results and find support for a financing mechanism whereby banks allocate capital preferentially to group-affiliated firms in responding to the increase in credit demand. Overall, our study documents that business groups have spillover effects on standalone firms. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online

We document that the aggregate hiring rate of publicly traded firms in the U.S. economy negatively predicts stock market returns and long-term cash flows, and positively predicts short-term cash flows. In addition, through a variance decomposition, we show that the time-series variation in the aggregate hiring rate is mainly driven by changes in discount rates and short-term expected cash flows, with no contribution from variation in long-term expected cash flows. We estimate a neoclassical dynamic model with labor market frictions and show that labor adjustment costs and time-varying risk are essential for the model to replicate the empirical patterns. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

We study the design of stress tests that provide information about aggregate and idiosyncratic risk in banks’ portfolios and impose contingent capital requirements. In the optimal static test, an adverse scenario fails all weak and some strong banks, limiting the stigma of failure. Sequential tests outperform static tests. Under natural conditions, the optimal sequential test consists of a precautionary recapitalization, followed by a scenario that fails only weak banks, similar to TARP in 2008, followed by SCAP in 2009. Our results also shed light on the Federal Reserve’s decision to test the banks twice in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

We examine innovation following the Great Depression using data on a century’s worth of U.S. patents and a difference-in-differences design that exploits regional variation in the crisis severity. Harder-hit areas experienced large and persistent declines in independent patenting, mostly reflecting the disruption in access to finance during the crisis. This decline was larger for young and inexperienced inventors and lower-quality patents. In contrast, innovation by large firms increased, especially among young and inexperienced inventors. Overall, the Great Depression contributed to the decline in technological entrepreneurship and accelerated the shift of innovation into larger firms.

We investigate the link between exchange-traded funds and real investment. Cross-sectionally, higher ETF ownership is associated with an increased sensitivity of real investment to Tobin’s q and a heightened ability of stock returns to forecast future earnings. Inclusion of stocks in industry ETFs enhances investment-q sensitivity and implies greater incorporation of earnings information into prices prior to public releases. Greater nonmarket ETF ownership leads to increased (reduced) reliance of real investment on own (peers’) stock prices. Overall, the evidence is consistent with ETFs positively affecting real investment efficiency via greater flows of information. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online

We study the optimality of macroprudential policies in an environment where banks provide liquidity to firms. Informational frictions between banks can cause interbank market freezes, prompting firms to accumulate their own liquid assets. Liquidity hoarding by firms in turn reduces the demand for bank loans and bank profitability, makes interbank market freezes even more likely, and may ultimately trigger a self-fulfilling bad equilibrium. Such “liquidity panics” provide an additional rationale for liquidity requirements on banks, which alleviate frictions in the banking sector and, paradoxically, can increase aggregate investment. Instead, policies encouraging bank lending can have the opposite effect.

We propose that stock market liquidity affects corporate investment and production. Illiquidity, which raises firms’ cost of capital, lowers investment in capital assets, R&D, and inventory. This effect holds after we control for endogeneity using exogenous liquidity events, the 2001 decimalization, and the 1997 Nasdaq reform and after employing instrumental variable estimation. Illiquidity affects investment regardless of firms’ financial constraints. Consequently, illiquidity induces firms to adopt less capital-intensive production processes. Illiquid firms have higher marginal productivity of capital, greater labor input increases for given increases in assets, and lower operating leverage, which means lower reliance on fixed costs.