Knowledge that Transforms

We present new facts on how convenience yields fluctuate with macroeconomic variables and fiscal policy: the convenience yield of long-term Treasuries is negatively correlated with inflation expectations, and inflation expectations predict future debt-to-GDP growth. To rationalize these findings, we incorporate the convenience yield into a macro-finance model with endogenous fiscal policy. The government finances deficit shocks partially through higher inflation and partially through more future borrowing, which reduces the convenience yield today. The feedback loop between the convenience yield and future debt supply amplifies the effect of fiscal shocks. We further verify this channel using empirically constructed exogenous deficit shocks.

We study an intervention by a brokerage firm providing advisory services to high-net-worth investors. In 2018, the firm changed the information displayed on its internal platform, so that financial advisors could no longer observe which clients’ holdings were in paper gain or loss. Using data on portfolio stock transactions between 2016 and 2021, we show that, while all investors exhibit a significant disposition effect before 2018, that is, a greater propensity to realize gains than losses, highly advised investors see their bias significantly reduced afterward. Our paper shows financial firms can successfully reduce clients’ biases by appropriately manipulating advisors’ information.

Stocks expected to be sold by distressed mega hedge funds (MHFs) face anticipatory institutional selling and increased short interest. However, no evidence of anticipatory trading is found in stocks held by nondistressed MHFs, distressed non-MHFs, or stocks confidentially held by distressed MHFs, suggesting that public portfolio disclosure by large and closely followed distressed investors, and not common investment signals, drives anticipatory trading. Distressed MHFs with greater exposure to such anticipatory trading suffer 2.21% lower style-adjusted returns. Stocks subject to anticipatory trading experience negative abnormal returns followed by reversals, indicating the price destabilizing effect of anticipatory trading.

Debt matters for oil supply elasticities. We document the resiliency of oil production to the COVID-19-related collapse in demand due to indebtedness. We use exogenous variation in the timing of debt-related payments to identify financially constrained operators. We show that more financially constrained firms cut production by less than less-constrained firms and were less likely to complete new wells. To explore the mechanisms, we use borrowing-limit cuts and credit-line drawdowns to measure access to credit, and we exploit failed hedging practices. The propagation of oil demand shocks crucially depends on the indebtedness of the oil sector.

We find that high productivity-based macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with greater accumulation of physical capital despite a reduction in investment and valuations. To reconcile this puzzling evidence, we show that uncertainty predicts lower aggregate depreciation of existing capital, which dominates the investment slowdown. We explain these findings by developing a quantitative production-based model in which firms implement precautionary savings through reducing utilization rather than raising investment. Through this novel intensive-margin mechanism, uncertainty shocks command a quarter of the equity premium in general equilibrium. Flexibility in utilization adjustments also helps explain uncertainty risk exposures in the cross-section of industry returns.

We educate investors about the benefits of dividend reinvestment and costs of misperceiving dividends as free income. The intervention increases planned dividend reinvestment in survey responses. Using trading records, we observe a causal increase in dividend reinvestment in the field of roughly 50 cents for every euro received. This holds relative to investors’ prior behavior and various control samples. Investors who learned the most from the intervention update their trading the most. The results suggest the free dividends fallacy is a significant source of dividend demand. Our study demonstrates that simple, targeted, and focused educational interventions can affect investment behavior.

The impact of tax benefits of debt on firms remains an open question. The 2017 U.S. tax reform limited the tax advantage of debt for all firms except for small businesses with average sales below $25 million. A regression discontinuity design based on the exception threshold shows that, as tax benefits of debt shrink, corporate debt declines significantly, while equity does not increase sufficiently to offset the reduction. Treated firms also decrease their investments due to the higher cost of capital. Overall, we document a first-order role for tax incentives that affect the cost of capital in shaping corporate policies.

Our paper examines analyst reports and online stock opinion articles which recommend buying stocks that, based on the literature, trade at high prices and earn low future returns (“short-leg securities”). Using a textual analysis, we test whether the justifications primarily (1) emphasize safe-haven qualities, (2) indicate exuberance, or (3) highlight lottery-like features. Our results strongly point to (3). We subsequently validate our text-based inferences through a survey of institutional and retail investors with long positions in short-leg securities. Overall, perceived upside potential appears to play a material role in driving investor demand for stocks in the short legs of anomalies.

How do resolution frameworks affect the private restructuring of distressed banks? We model a bank’s shareholders and creditors negotiating a restructuring, under two frictions: asymmetric information about asset quality and externalities on the government. High-quality banks signal themselves by delaying the negotiation, which is socially inefficient. Public policies can improve welfare if they reduce the signaling motive or increase the negotiation surplus. Stricter bail-in rules make debt more information sensitive and increase delays. The bank chooses a capital structure with too little renegotiable debt, giving a new rationale, for example, for Total Loss Absorbing Capacity requirements.

How does the design of debt repayment schedules affect household borrowing? To answer this question, we exploit a Swedish policy reform that eliminated interest-only mortgages for loan-to-value ratios above 50%. We document substantial bunching at the threshold, leading to 5% lower borrowing. Wealthy borrowers drive the results, challenging credit constraints as the primary explanation. We develop a model to evaluate the mechanisms driving household behavior and find that much of the effect comes from households experiencing ongoing flow disutility to amortization payments. Our results indicate that mortgage contracts with low initial payments substantially increase household borrowing and lifetime interest costs.