Knowledge that Transforms

Our paper examines analyst reports and online stock opinion articles which recommend buying stocks that, based on the literature, trade at high prices and earn low future returns (“short-leg securities”). Using a textual analysis, we test whether the justifications primarily (1) emphasize safe-haven qualities, (2) indicate exuberance, or (3) highlight lottery-like features. Our results strongly point to (3). We subsequently validate our text-based inferences through a survey of institutional and retail investors with long positions in short-leg securities. Overall, perceived upside potential appears to play a material role in driving investor demand for stocks in the short legs of anomalies.

How do resolution frameworks affect the private restructuring of distressed banks? We model a bank’s shareholders and creditors negotiating a restructuring, under two frictions: asymmetric information about asset quality and externalities on the government. High-quality banks signal themselves by delaying the negotiation, which is socially inefficient. Public policies can improve welfare if they reduce the signaling motive or increase the negotiation surplus. Stricter bail-in rules make debt more information sensitive and increase delays. The bank chooses a capital structure with too little renegotiable debt, giving a new rationale, for example, for Total Loss Absorbing Capacity requirements.

How does the design of debt repayment schedules affect household borrowing? To answer this question, we exploit a Swedish policy reform that eliminated interest-only mortgages for loan-to-value ratios above 50%. We document substantial bunching at the threshold, leading to 5% lower borrowing. Wealthy borrowers drive the results, challenging credit constraints as the primary explanation. We develop a model to evaluate the mechanisms driving household behavior and find that much of the effect comes from households experiencing ongoing flow disutility to amortization payments. Our results indicate that mortgage contracts with low initial payments substantially increase household borrowing and lifetime interest costs.

The difference between corporate bond yields at issuance and in secondary markets, the “issuance premium,” spikes in bad times, raising firms’ capital costs. Using new bond-level data and high-frequency variation in bond supply and demand, I estimate a model of primary markets with imperfectly elastic investors, endogenous bond supply, and underwriter frictions that quantifies drivers of issuance premiums. I find underwriters’ favoritism toward investors increases issuance premiums’ levels and cyclical variation. On the other hand, relatively elastic investors allow primary markets to absorb large bond issuances. My findings inform policies targeted at bond issuance markets.

We develop an asymptotic framework for conducting inference on continuous-time asset pricing models using high-frequency returns over an increasing time horizon. Our study focuses on the identification and estimation of risk premiums associated with the continuous component and jumps of various size brackets. We extend the classical Fama-MacBeth regression from the discrete-time setting to a continuous-time factor model, incorporating general dynamics for factors, idiosyncratic components, and factor loadings. Our empirical analysis of U.S. equities, foreign exchange, and commodities underscores the distinct significance of continuous and jump risk premiums for the specific factors constructed within each asset class in determining expected returns.

We examine how relative performance evaluation (RPE) affects industry competition—a question relevant for corporate boards interested in incentivizing executives. Using U.S. airline data, we estimate a dynamic game of competition between heterogeneous firms in an oligopolistic market, with managers incentivized by RPE contracts. While RPE can induce a firm to compete more intensely by smoothing compensation, it also amplifies a firm’s cost efficiency relative to its peers and can weaken competition from inefficient firms. The first effect dominates in small markets and the second in median-sized markets. RPE has little effect in large, highly profitable markets.

I find that foreign multinational firms engage in tax-motivated income shifting out of the United States. The analysis uses novel data on foreign-owned U.S. subsidiaries as well as variation in foreign countries’ tax rates and controlled foreign corporation rules. Foreign multinational firms primarily rely on tax-motivated transfer pricing to shift income out of the United States, and the aggregate amount of shifted income is modest. When foreign tax policy changes inhibit income shifting, foreign-owned U.S. subsidiaries’ investment and employment fall. The results indicate that the U.S. economy has limited exposure to tax policies set abroad through foreign direct investment in the United States.

We propose a new asset pricing model that generalizes the mean-variance framework by including probability weighting, specifically the overweighting of rare, high-impact events. Our model—the $ Π $-CAPM—generates several new predictions: (i) skewness has a positive price effect, amplified by volatility; (ii) the price effect of volatility is negative for left-skewed assets but positive for right-skewed assets; and (iii) option-implied variance premiums for stocks have a U-shaped relation to skewness, amplified by volatility. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Finally, we show that the $ Π $-CAPM predicts an exaggerated co-movement of assets and can explain the correlation premium.

This paper provides evidence that the U.S. dollar affects trade through a financial channel of the exchange rate. Using global data over three decades, we show that dollar appreciation increases import prices and decreases import quantities for non-U.S. dollar countries. In line with a financial channel, these effects are stronger when the exporting country borrows more in U.S. dollars abroad. The financial channel was active before the global financial crisis, has strengthened since, and operates independently of the dominant currency invoicing channel. Instrumenting the dollar is key to uncovering the full effect of the financial channel.

Previous research has revealed that return spreads between stocks with high and low characteristics-based factor beta remain insignificant. This study investigates the time variation in the pricing of various characteristics-based factors, uncovering a notable two-regime pattern: high-beta portfolios yield higher returns than low-beta portfolios after high-sentiment periods, while the opposite occurs after low-sentiment periods. Remarkably, this two-regime pattern is completely reversed for macro factors. Mutual fund and hedge fund returns corroborate these findings. Our results suggest that exposure to characteristics-based factors likely represents mispricing levels, particularly during high-sentiment periods, whereas exposure to macro factors likely represents risk, particularly during low-sentiment periods.