Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We educate investors about the benefits of dividend reinvestment and costs of misperceiving dividends as free income. The intervention increases planned dividend reinvestment in survey responses. Using trading records, we observe a causal increase in dividend reinvestment in the field of roughly 50 cents for every euro received. This holds relative to investors’ prior behavior and various control samples. Investors who learned the most from the intervention update their trading the most. The results suggest the free dividends fallacy is a significant source of dividend demand. Our study demonstrates that simple, targeted, and focused educational interventions can affect investment behavior.

Abstract The impact of tax benefits of debt on firms remains an open question. The 2017 U.S. tax reform limited the tax advantage of debt for all firms except for small businesses with average sales below $25 million. A regression discontinuity design based on the exception threshold shows that, as tax benefits of debt shrink, corporate debt declines significantly, while equity does not increase sufficiently to offset the reduction. Treated firms also decrease their investments due to the higher cost of capital. Overall, we document a first-order role for tax incentives that affect the cost of capital in shaping corporate policies. (JEL G31, G32, G38, H25, K34)

Abstract Our paper examines analyst reports and online stock opinion articles which recommend buying stocks that, based on the literature, trade at high prices and earn low future returns (“short-leg securities”). Using a textual analysis, we test whether the justifications primarily (1) emphasize safe-haven qualities, (2) indicate exuberance, or (3) highlight lottery-like features. Our results strongly point to (3). We subsequently validate our text-based inferences through a survey of institutional and retail investors with long positions in short-leg securities. Overall, perceived upside potential appears to play a material role in driving investor demand for stocks in the short legs of anomalies.

Abstract How do resolution frameworks affect the private restructuring of distressed banks? We model a bank’s shareholders and creditors negotiating a restructuring, under two frictions: asymmetric information about asset quality and externalities on the government. High-quality banks signal themselves by delaying the negotiation, which is socially inefficient. Public policies can improve welfare if they reduce the signaling motive or increase the negotiation surplus. Stricter bail-in rules make debt more information sensitive and increase delays. The bank chooses a capital structure with too little renegotiable debt, giving a new rationale, for example, for Total Loss Absorbing Capacity requirements.

Abstract How does the design of debt repayment schedules affect household borrowing? To answer this question, we exploit a Swedish policy reform that eliminated interest-only mortgages for loan-to-value ratios above 50%. We document substantial bunching at the threshold, leading to 5% lower borrowing. Wealthy borrowers drive the results, challenging credit constraints as the primary explanation. We develop a model to evaluate the mechanisms driving household behavior and find that much of the effect comes from households experiencing ongoing flow disutility to amortization payments. Our results indicate that mortgage contracts with low initial payments substantially increase household borrowing and lifetime interest costs.

Abstract The difference between corporate bond yields at issuance and in secondary markets, the “issuance premium,” spikes in bad times, raising firms’ capital costs. Using new bond-level data and high-frequency variation in bond supply and demand, I estimate a model of primary markets with imperfectly elastic investors, endogenous bond supply, and underwriter frictions that quantifies drivers of issuance premiums. I find underwriters’ favoritism toward investors increases issuance premiums’ levels and cyclical variation. On the other hand, relatively elastic investors allow primary markets to absorb large bond issuances. My findings inform policies targeted at bond issuance markets.

Abstract We develop an asymptotic framework for conducting inference on continuous-time asset pricing models using high-frequency returns over an increasing time horizon. Our study focuses on the identification and estimation of risk premiums associated with the continuous component and jumps of various size brackets. We extend the classical Fama-MacBeth regression from the discrete-time setting to a continuous-time factor model, incorporating general dynamics for factors, idiosyncratic components, and factor loadings. Our empirical analysis of U.S. equities, foreign exchange, and commodities underscores the distinct significance of continuous and jump risk premiums for the specific factors constructed within each asset class in determining expected returns.

Abstract We examine how relative performance evaluation (RPE) affects industry competition—a question relevant for corporate boards interested in incentivizing executives. Using U.S. airline data, we estimate a dynamic game of competition between heterogeneous firms in an oligopolistic market, with managers incentivized by RPE contracts. While RPE can induce a firm to compete more intensely by smoothing compensation, it also amplifies a firm’s cost efficiency relative to its peers and can weaken competition from inefficient firms. The first effect dominates in small markets and the second in median-sized markets. RPE has little effect in large, highly profitable markets.

Abstract I find that foreign multinational firms engage in tax-motivated income shifting out of the United States. The analysis uses novel data on foreign-owned U.S. subsidiaries as well as variation in foreign countries’ tax rates and controlled foreign corporation rules. Foreign multinational firms primarily rely on tax-motivated transfer pricing to shift income out of the United States, and the aggregate amount of shifted income is modest. When foreign tax policy changes inhibit income shifting, foreign-owned U.S. subsidiaries’ investment and employment fall. The results indicate that the U.S. economy has limited exposure to tax policies set abroad through foreign direct investment in the United States.

Abstract We propose a new asset pricing model that generalizes the mean-variance framework by including probability weighting, specifically the overweighting of rare, high-impact events. Our model—the $ Π $-CAPM—generates several new predictions: (i) skewness has a positive price effect, amplified by volatility; (ii) the price effect of volatility is negative for left-skewed assets but positive for right-skewed assets; and (iii) option-implied variance premiums for stocks have a U-shaped relation to skewness, amplified by volatility. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Finally, we show that the $ Π $-CAPM predicts an exaggerated co-movement of assets and can explain the correlation premium.