Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract This paper provides evidence that the U.S. dollar affects trade through a financial channel of the exchange rate. Using global data over three decades, we show that dollar appreciation increases import prices and decreases import quantities for non-U.S. dollar countries. In line with a financial channel, these effects are stronger when the exporting country borrows more in U.S. dollars abroad. The financial channel was active before the global financial crisis, has strengthened since, and operates independently of the dominant currency invoicing channel. Instrumenting the dollar is key to uncovering the full effect of the financial channel.

Abstract Previous research has revealed that return spreads between stocks with high and low characteristics-based factor beta remain insignificant. This study investigates the time variation in the pricing of various characteristics-based factors, uncovering a notable two-regime pattern: high-beta portfolios yield higher returns than low-beta portfolios after high-sentiment periods, while the opposite occurs after low-sentiment periods. Remarkably, this two-regime pattern is completely reversed for macro factors. Mutual fund and hedge fund returns corroborate these findings. Our results suggest that exposure to characteristics-based factors likely represents mispricing levels, particularly during high-sentiment periods, whereas exposure to macro factors likely represents risk, particularly during low-sentiment periods.

Abstract This paper proposes a new measure of technological obsolescence using detailed patent data. The measure contains incremental information about firm innovation relative to measures focusing on new innovation. Using this measure, we present two sets of results. First, firms’ technological obsolescence foreshadows substantially lower growth, productivity, and reallocation of capital. This finding mainly applies to obsolescence of core innovation and embodied innovation, and it is stronger in competitive product markets. Second, in stock markets, high-obsolescence firms underperform low-obsolescence firms by 7% annually. Using analyst forecast data, we show this is due to a systematic overestimation of future profits of obsolescent firms.

Abstract We analyze a panel of over 28,400 S&P 500 return forecasts by CFOs to examine whether the extent of CFOs’ miscalibration—providing forecast confidence intervals that are too narrow—decreases over time. We find no improvement with task repetition nor evidence of learning, that is, no improvement in response to past performance. Across CFOs, miscalibration appears to be a persistent personal trait. We find some evidence that the degree of miscalibration is related to birth cohort and stock market familiarity.

Abstract Binsbergen, Han, and Lopez-Lira (2023) predict analysts’ forecast errors using a random forest model. A strategy that trades against this model’s predictions earns a monthly alpha of 1.54% ($ t $-value = 5.84). This estimate represents a large improvement over studies using classical statistical methods. We attribute the difference to a look-ahead bias. Removing the bias erases the alpha. Linear models yield as accurate forecasts and superior trading profits. Neither alternative machine learning models nor combinations thereof resurrect the predictability. We discuss the state of research into the term structure of analysts’ forecasts and its causal relationship with returns.

Abstract We study how passive investing affects asset prices. Flows into passive funds disproportionately raise the stock prices of the economy’s largest firms, especially those large firms in high demand by noise traders. Because of this effect, the aggregate market can rise even when flows are entirely due to investors switching from active to passive funds. Intuitively, passive flows increase the idiosyncratic risk of large firms in high demand, which discourages investors from correcting the flows’ effects on prices. Consistent with our theory, prices and idiosyncratic volatilities of the largest S&P500 firms rise the most following flows into that index.

Abstract Stock returns exhibit reversals at short horizons but slowly transition to momentum over longer horizons. To help understand this pattern, we develop a multiperiod model with short- and long-horizon noise traders, and active investors who underreact to information they do not themselves produce. The model accords with the transition from reversals to momentum and yields the following novel predictions: (a) attenuated reversals after earnings announcements, (b) a negative relation between monthly reversal and longer-term momentum profits across economies and time, and (c) larger reversals when there is more noise trading. Empirical analysis using U.S. and international data supports these predictions.

Abstract According to existing theories, short-term creditors promote corporate governance by responding quickly to new information. I show that this very feature of short-term debt can also undermine corporate governance. Though moderate levels of short-term debt improve the efficacy of blockholder exit and increase blockholders’ incentives to engage with the firm, high levels of short-term debt impair governance. In particular, high levels of short-term debt render the threat of exit noncredible, make public engagements too risky, and undermine blockholders’ incentives to engage behind the scenes. I identify a challenge in the governance of firms that rely on short-term funding such as banks.

Abstract We introduce a novel nonparametric bootstrap for the yield curve that is agnostic to the true factor structure of interest rates. We deconstruct the yield curve into primitive objects, with weak cross-sectional and time-series dependence, that serve as building blocks for resampling the data. We analyze the properties of the bootstrap for mimicking salient features of the data and conducting valid inference. We demonstrate the benefits of our general method by revisiting the predictability of bond returns based on slow-moving fundamentals. We find that trend inflation, but not the equilibrium real rate, has predictive power for future bond returns.

Abstract We study the corporate-loan pricing decisions of a major, systemic bank during the Greek financial crisis. A unique aspect of our data set is that we observe both the actual interest rate and the “break-even rate” (BE rate) of each loan, as computed by the bank’s own loan-pricing department (in effect, the loan’s marginal cost). We document that low-BE-rate (safer) borrowers are charged significant markups, whereas high-BE-rate (riskier) borrowers are charged smaller and even negative markups. We rationalize this de facto cross-subsidization through the lens of a dynamic model featuring depressed collateral values, impaired capital-market access, and limit pricing.