Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We examine how macroeconomic expectations affect consumer decisions, using an experiment with 2,872 credit card customers at a large commercial bank. In the experiment, participants are randomized into receiving expert forecasts of inflation and the nominal exchange rate. We find that forecasts shift inflation and exchange rate expectations, but do not change spending or self-reported consumption plans as predicted by standard models of intertemporal choice. Results from a supplementary survey experiment suggest that consumers are sophisticated enough to anticipate nominal rigidities and reduce spending on durables for precautionary reasons, counteracting the effects predicted by standard models of intertemporal optimization.

Abstract Option wholesalers specialize in purchasing and executing against retail option order flow. Orders are internalized via auctions (which provide price improvement) and the limit order book. Designated market makers (DMMs) have a key advantage in internalizing limit order book trades: they obtain the first five contracts of any order they bring to an exchange where they are a DMM. We exploit variation in DMM assignments and allocation rules to highlight how these rules create a barrier to entry in option wholesaling that does not exist for equity wholesaling, protecting wholesaler profits and high option PFOF.

Abstract We study the effects of underquoting, the practice of setting listing prices below sellers’ reservation values, on housing auctions. Laws introduced in Australia to deter underquoting lead to higher listing prices, but also to declines in sales prices and sales probabilities. We develop a quantitative model to formalize predictions under different assumptions about bidders’ information and rationality. The effects of the laws are matched by a version of the model in which participating bidders overbid. While both behavioral biases arising during the auction and switching costs can explain overbidding, empirical and survey evidence points to behavioral biases as the main mechanism.

Abstract I study the yield curve dynamics in a general equilibrium model with financial intermediaries facing financing constraints. When constraints bind, intermediaries reallocate their portfolios, causing deadweight losses in aggregate consumption, thus affecting savers’ marginal utility. Because the yield curve is a forecast of marginal utility, intermediaries’ constraints show up, via general equilibrium forces, in long-term yields. I show that the mechanism connecting intermediaries’ constraints and long-term yields produces highly nonlinear interest rate dynamics and a positive real term premium in equilibrium. I extend the analysis to the nominal yield curve using a simple Taylor rule.

Abstract We study “Algorithmic Market Makers” (AMs) that use Q-learning algorithms to set prices for a risky asset. We find that while AMs successfully adapt to adverse selection, they struggle to learn competitive pricing strategies. This failure is driven by limited experimentation and noisy feedback regarding the profitability of undercutting a competitor. Consequently, an increase in AMs’ profit volatility tends to result in less competitive market outcomes. These features leave identifiable patterns: for example, AMs earn higher rents in the absence of adverse selection, and their bid-ask spreads respond asymmetrically to symmetric shocks to their costs.

Abstract We introduce a present-value identity relating a firm’s market value to expected future markups, output growth, discount rates, and investments. Distinguishing current from expected markups reveals five empirical facts: (1) Expected markups account for half the rise in U.S. firm values since 1980. (2) The rise in aggregate expected markups reflects market-share reallocation toward high-expected-markup firms and within-firm increases. (3) Expected markups are linked to intangible investments. (4) They relate negatively to discount rates over time but (5) positively to abnormal returns across firms. Finally, variation in long-term expected markups is primarily associated with asset prices rather than current markups.

Abstract Fraud indicators within the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a major COVID relief program, are highly geographically concentrated. ZIP codes and counties with high rates of suspicious PPP loans are strongly socially connected, with evidence that fraud spreads spatially over time through social networks. Individuals in suspicious social media groups have higher rates of PPP fraud, and socially connected ZIP codes frequently use the same specific FinTech lenders, consistent with social networks influencing detailed loan decisions. Our findings suggest that more proactive data analysis is needed for fraud prevention, detection, and prosecution to prevent the social spread of fraudulent schemes.

Abstract We quantify the impact of perceived cancer risk on housing values using widely advertised national reclassifications of chemical carcinogenicity in the United States. Combining these information events with an empirical design that compares changes in house values closer to affected toxic plants against those farther away isolates the effect of cancer risk news from other local factors. Focusing on plants previously emitting reclassified carcinogenic chemicals, we estimate a 1–2% decline in housing values within a 3-mile radius compared to those located farther away. The effects are stronger in areas with higher media presence underscoring the role of salience as a mechanism.

Abstract We study the efficacy of remote arrangements between CEOs and firms. Such arrangements attract executive talent and overcome labor market segmentation but introduce frictions. Remote arrangements are associated with lower operating performance, firm valuation, and insider reviews. Using the private costs from uprooting the CEO’s spouse as an instrument for the CEO’s decision to seek remote work, we find similar negative effects. The performance decline increases for CEOs who live further away and who cross multiple time zones. The mechanisms include the CEO’s loss of information, short-termism, and consumption of leisure, such as recreational boats and beach homes.

Abstract Between 2009 and 2011, the Spanish banking system underwent a restructuring process based on savings banks’ consolidation. The program’s design allows us to study how banks’ consolidation affects credit supply and performance. We propose a quasi-experimental analysis showing that bank mergers restrict credit supply and set higher interest rates but also reject fewer applicants and report fewer nonperforming loans. We then estimate a structural model of credit in which banks set interest rates and lending standards. We find that, despite the relaxation in their lending standards, merged banks’ credit performance improved thanks to a significant drop in their screening costs.