Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract The recent literature provides conflicting empirical evidence about the pricing of idiosyncratic risk. This paper sheds new light on the matter by exploiting the richness of option data. First, we find that idiosyncratic risk explains 28% of the variation in the risk premium on a stock. Second, we show that the contribution of idiosyncratic risk to the equity premium arises exclusively from jump risk. Third, we document that the commonality in idiosyncratic tail risk is much stronger than that in total idiosyncratic risk documented in the literature. Tail risk thus plays a central role in the pricing of idiosyncratic risk. Received May 15, 2017; editorial decision September 12, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished code and an Internet Appendix, which are available on the Oxford University PressWeb site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract We develop an asset pricing model with heterogeneous exposure to a persistent world growth factor to identify global growth and financial shocks in a multicountry panel VAR in volatility and output growth. The econometric estimates yield three sets of empirical results about (1) the importance of global growth for the interpretation of the correlation between volatility and growth over the business cycle and the possible presence of omitted variable bias in single-country VAR studies, (2) the extent to which output shocks drive volatility, and (3) the transmission of volatility shocks to output growth. Authors have furnished data, code, and an Internet Appendix, which are available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract We construct and analyze the equilibrium of a model of delegated portfolio management in which money managers signal their investment skills via fund transparency. To lower the costs of transparency, high-skill managers rely on their performance to separate from low-skill managers over time. In contrast, medium-skill managers rely on transparency to separate, especially when it is difficult for investors to tell them apart through performance alone. Low-skill managers mimic high-skill managers in opaque funds, hoping to replicate their performance and compensation. The model yields several novel empirical predictions that contrast transparent and opaque funds. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract We examine whether relative income differences among peers can generate financial distress. Using lottery winnings as plausibly exogenous variations in the relative income of peers, we find that the dollar magnitude of a lottery win of one neighbor increases subsequent borrowing and bankruptcies among other neighbors. We also examine which factors may mitigate lenders’ bankruptcy risk in these neighborhoods. We show that bankruptcy filers obtain more secured, but not unsecured, debt, and lenders provide additional credit to low-risk, but not high-risk, debtors. In addition, we find evidence consistent with local lenders taking advantage of soft information to mitigate credit risk. Received October 12, 2016; editorial decision January 15, 2019 by Editor Philip Strahan. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract A long-standing asset pricing puzzle is that the funding rates in derivatives contracts often differ from those in cash markets. We propose that the cost of renting intermediary balance sheet space may help resolve this puzzle. We study a persistent basis in what is arguably the largest derivatives market, namely, the interest rate futures market. This basis is strongly related to exogenous measures of intermediary balance sheet usage and proxies for the balance sheet costs imposed by debt overhang problems and capital regulation. These results extend to the cash derivatives bases documented in many of the other largest financial markets.

Abstract A common practice in the finance literature is to create characteristic portfolios by sorting on characteristics associated with average returns. We show that the resultant portfolios are likely to capture not only the priced risk associated with the characteristic but also unpriced risk. We develop a procedure to remove this unpriced risk using covariance information estimated from past returns. We apply our methodology to the five Fama-French characteristic portfolios. The squared Sharpe ratio of the optimal combination of the resultant characteristic-efficient portfolios is 2.13, compared with 1.17 for the original characteristic portfolios.

Abstract Equity markets fail to account for the value-relevant nonpublic information enjoyed by syndicated loan participants and reflected in publicly posted loan prices. A long-short strategy that buys (sells) the equities of firms with recently appreciated (depreciated) loans earns large risk-adjusted returns, suggesting a surprising and economically important level of segmentation across the same firm’s capital structure. The information lag captured by trading strategy returns is not affected by drivers of firm-specific attention, including the publication of loan returns in the Wall Street Journal. Instead, returns to the strategy are eliminated among equities held by mutual funds also trading in syndicated loans. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Using U.S. Census firm-worker data, I document that firms' financial distress has an economically important effect on employee departures to entrepreneurship. The impact is amplified in the high-tech and service sectors, where employees are key assets. In states with enforceable noncompete contracts, the effect is mitigated. Compared to typical entrepreneurs, distress-driven entrepreneurs are high-wage workers who found better firms, as measured by jobs, pay, and survival. Startup jobs compensate for 33% of job losses at the constrained incumbents. Overall, the financial inability of incumbent firms to pursue productive opportunities increases the reallocation of economic activity into new firms. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract We study investments in exclusive projects with different cost structures. Our analysis incorporates the possibility of producing a stochastic revenue stream from two alternative technologies with a stochastic variable cost and a fixed cost, respectively, and accounts for project managers’ endogenous operating decisions. The optimal investment decision is characterized by two possibly nonmonotone boundaries. We examine the effect of operating leverage on managerial policies, investment decisions, and values and carry out an application to power generation projects. We assess the impact of knowledge acquisition, that is, investments in growth options. (JEL G13, Q40, Q42, L94)

Abstract We present broad-based evidence that the monthly payment cycle induces systematic patterns in liquid markets around the globe. First, we document temporary increases in the costs of debt and equity capital that coincide with key dates associated with month-end cash needs. Second, we present direct and indirect evidence on the role of institutions in the genesis of these patterns and derive estimates of the associated costs borne by market participants. Third, and finally, we investigate the limits to arbitrage that prevent markets from functioning efficiently. Our results indicate that many investors and their agents, including mutual funds, suffer from liquidity-related trading. Received January 16, 2018; editorial decision January 2, 2019 by Editor Robin Greenwood. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.