This article uses a new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates-a deterioration in the risk composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers' willingness to default due to declines in default costs. Even after controlling for risk composition and economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. Standard default models missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with a decline in default costs.

This article uses a new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates—a deterioration in the risk composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers’ willingness to default due to declines in default costs. Even after controlling for risk composition and economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. Standard default models missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with a decline in default costs.

This is an exploration of how bidding behavior of firms in various auctions is affected by their capital structure. The theoretical model considers a first-price sealed bid and an English auction. We find that as debt levels increase, firms tend to reduce their bids. The lower bids give the competition incentives to reduce their bids as well. These results are investigated empirically using data from the 1994-1995 FCC spectrum auctions. Consistent with the theoretical model, higher debt levels of the bidding firm and of the competition tend to lead to lower bids. Additional determinants of bidding behavior in these auctions are also analyzed.

This article presents a simple yet powerful new approach for approximating the value of American options by simulation. The key to this approach is the use of least squares to estimate the conditional expected payoff to the optionholder from continuation. This makes this approach readily applicable in path-dependent and multifactor situations where traditional finite difference techniques cannot be used. We illustrate this technique with several realistic examples including valuing an option when the underlying asset follows a jump-diffusion process and valuing an American swaption in a 20-factor string model of the term structure.

This article develops a model for evaluating alternative hedging strategies for financially constrained firms. A key advantage of the model is the ability to capture the intertemporal effects of hedging on the firm's financial situation. We characterize the optimal hedge. A wide range of alternative hedging strategies can be specified and the model allows us to determine in each case if the hedging strategy raises or lowers firms value and by how much. We show that hedging firm value, hedging cash flow from operations and hedging sales revenue are not optimal. The article highlights the fact that every hedging strategy comes packaged with a borrowing strategy which requires careful consideration.

This article develops a model for evaluating alternative hedging strategies for financially constrained firms. A key advantage of the model is the ability to capture the intertemporal effects of hedging on the firm's financial situation. We characterize the optimal hedge. A wide range of alternative hedging strategies can be specified and the model allows us to determine in each case if the hedging strategy raises or lowers firm value and by how much. We show that hedging firm value, hedging cash flow from operations and hedging sales revenue are not optimal. The article highlights the fact that every hedging strategy comes packaged with a borrowing strategy which requires careful consideration.

[This article explores the optimal trading and pricing of taxable securities with asymmetric capital gains taxes and transaction costs. In the long-term region, investors realize all gains below some critical cutoff level, which we derive analytically. In the short-term region, investors defer all gains and, depending upon the time remaining in the short-term region, may also defer small losses. Contrary to common intuition, deferral of short-term losses can be optimal even without transaction costs. The value of tax timing is considerably higher under the optimal trading strategy than under alternative strategies previously analyzed. The impact of offset rules is also explored.]

This article explores the optimal trading and pricing of taxable securities with asymmetric capital gains taxes and transaction costs. In the long-term region, investors realize all gains below some critical cutoff level, which we derive analytically. In the short-term region, investors defer all gains and, depending upon the time remaining in the short-term region, may also defer small losses. Contrary to common intuition, deferral of short-term losses can be optimal even without transaction costs. The value of tax timing is considerably higher under the optimal trading strategy than under alternative strategies previously analyzed. The impact of offset rules is also explored.

[Prior analyses of prices of the NYSE and other exchanges find that transitory price volatility is greater at the open of trading than at the close. We extend this line of research by using 40 years of hourly Dow Jones 65 Composite price index data to estimate transitory volatility throughout the trading day. Our results indicate that transitory volatility steadily declines during the trading day. We find a similar intraday decline in transitory volatility for a 21/2-year sample of the individual firms in the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that trading aids price formation and do not support the argument that particular trading mechanisms are the source of greater volatility at the open of trading.]

Prior analyses of prices of the NYSE and other exchanges find that transitory price volatility is greater at the open of trading than at the close. We extend this line of research by using 40 years of hourly Dow Jones 65 composite price index data to estimate transitory volatility throughout the trading day. Our results indicate that transitory volatility steadily declines during the trading day. We find a similar intraday decline in transitory volatility for a 2½-year sample of the individual firms in the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that trading aids price formation and do not support the argument that particular trading mechanisms are the source of greater volatility at the open of trading.