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(Debt) Overhang: Evidence from Resource Extraction

Review of Financial Studies 2021 34(4), 1699-1746
I study the empirical importance of debt overhang using a unique data set on resource extraction firms that provides ex ante measures of investment opportunities and important variation in terms of a firm’s obligations. In particular, unsecured reclamation liabilities create overhang that is costly to resolve and induces firms to forgo and postpone positive NPV investments. Traditional debt, in contrast, imposes few overhang-related investment distortions. These results show that (a) the overhang problem is potentially large and more broadly applies to firms’ nondebt liabilities and (b) overhang problems associated with traditional debt can be avoided through contracting and debt composition.

The Unintended Consequences of Corporate Bond ETFs: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum

Review of Financial Studies 2021 35(1), 51-90
This paper examines whether ETFs are a unique source of corporate bond fragility. Relative to mutual funds, ETFs cater to high-liquidity-demand investors, facilitate positive feedback strategies, and transmit outflows to corporate bonds via near-proportional trading. Comparing yield spread changes of bonds from the same issuer, we show that ETFs create flow-induced pressure during the Taper Tantrum, a period of market turmoil. Redemptions used to maintain the relative price efficiency of the largest and most liquid ETFs lead to significantly higher yield spreads for 4 months before reverting. The pattern indicates ETFs amplify the effects of negative fundamental shocks.

Regressive Mortgage Credit Redistribution in the Post-Crisis Era

Review of Financial Studies 2021 35(1), 482-525
We document four secular trends about U.S. mortgage origination by traditional and FinTech lenders after the 2008-2009 financial crisis. First, since 2011, the overall number, size, and approval rate of small and medium-sized loans have been decreasing over time, relative to large loans. Second, the largest lenders redistribute their lending the most. Third, this loan-size redistribution of credit increases in the size of the lender. Fourth, the effects are stronger for mortgages further away from the conforming loan limit(s) in both directions. We argue that the supply of credit drives these secular trends, and we assess several potential economic mechanisms.

The Chinese Warrants Bubble: Evidence from Brokerage Account Records

Review of Financial Studies 2021 34(1), 264-312 open access
We use brokerage account records to study trading during the Chinese put warrants bubble and find evidence consistent with extrapolative theories of speculative asset price bubbles. We identify the event that started the bubble and show that investors engaged in a form of feedback trading based on their own past returns. The interaction of feedback trading with the precipitating event caused additional buying and price increases in a feedback loop, and estimates of the trading volume due to this mechanism explain prices and returns during the bubble.

Does Option Trading Have a Pervasive Impact on Underlying Stock Prices?

Review of Financial Studies 2021 34(4), 1952-1986
The question of whether and to what extent option trading affects underlying stock prices has been of interest to researchers since exchange-based options trading began in 1973. Recent research presents evidence of an informational channel through which option trading affects stock prices by showing that option market makers’ stock trades to hedge new options positions cause the information reflected in option trading to be impounded into underlying equity prices. This paper provides evidence of a noninformational channel through which option market maker hedge rebalancing affects stock return volatility and the probability of large stock price moves.