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Understanding Mortgage Spreads

Review of Financial Studies 2019 32(10), 3799-3850
[Because most mortgages in the United States are securitized in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), yield spreads on MBS are a key determinant of homeowners’ funding costs. We study variation in MBS spreads in the time series and across securities and document that MBS spreads show a pronounced cross-sectional smile with respect to the securities’ coupon rates. We present a new pricing model that uses “stripped” MBS prices to identify the contribution of non-interest-rate prepayment risk to spreads and find that this risk explains the smile, whereas the time-series spread variation is mostly accounted for by nonprepayment risk factors.]

Understanding Mortgage Spreads

Review of Financial Studies 2019 32(10), 3799-3850 open access
Because most mortgages in the United States are securitized in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), yield spreads on MBS are a key determinant of homeowners’ funding costs. We study variation in MBS spreads in the time series and across securities and document that MBS spreads show a pronounced cross-sectional smile with respect to the securities’ coupon rates. We present a new pricing model that uses “stripped” MBS prices to identify the contribution of non-interest-rate prepayment risk to spreads and find that this risk explains the smile, whereas the time-series spread variation is mostly accounted for by nonprepayment risk factors. Received March 30, 2015; editorial decision November 21, 2018 by Editor Leonid Kogan.

Credit Supply and the Rise in College Tuition: Evidence from the Expansion in Federal Student Aid Programs

Review of Financial Studies 2018 32(2), 423-466 open access
When students fund their education through loans, changes in student borrowing and tuition are interlinked. Higher tuition costs raise loan demand, but loan supply also affects equilibrium tuition costs - for example, by relaxing students' funding constraints. To resolve this simultaneity problem, we exploit detailed student-level financial data and changes in federal student aid programs to identify the impact of increased student loan funding on tuition. We find that institutions more exposed to changes in the subsidized federal loan program increased their tuition disproportionately around these policy changes, with a sizable pass-through effect on tuition of about 65 percent. We also find that Pell Grant aid and the unsubsidized federal loan program have pass-through effects on tuition, although these are economically and statistically not as strong. The subsidized loan effect on tuition is most pronounced for expensive, private institutions that are somewhat, but not among the most, selective.