[We study blockholder presence in a large panel and document substantial heterogeneity in holding periods, position sizes, and positions taken across blockholder types. Nonfinancial blocks are more likely to be observed in smaller, riskier, younger, and less-liquid firms. These patterns are either not evident or reversed for financial blocks. For all but small financial blocks, we detect significant negative interdependence in blockholder investment decisions, with the presence of one blockholder crowding out others, a behavior that appears causal. Small financial blocks often coexist in the same firm, an outcome that appears to reflect correlated investment styles.]

We study blockholder presence in a large panel and document substantial heterogeneity in holding periods, position sizes, and positions taken across blockholder types. Nonfinancial blocks are more likely to be observed in smaller, riskier, younger, and less-liquid firms. These patterns are either not evident or reversed for financial blocks. For all but small financial blocks, we detect significant negative interdependence in blockholder investment decisions, with the presence of one blockholder crowding out others, a behavior that appears causal. Small financial blocks often coexist in the same firm, an outcome that appears to reflect correlated investment styles. Received April 30, 2018; editorial decision November 23, 2018 by Editor David Denis.

Dramatic microstructure changes in equity markets have made standard liquidity measures less accurate proxies for trading costs. We develop trade-time liquidity measures that reflect per-dollar price impacts of fixed-dollar volumes. Our measures better capture institutional trading costs and better explain the cross-section of returns than do standard measures, especially in recent years. Despite improvements in measures of market quality, expected trading costs have explanatory power for the cross-section of expected returns: we obtain monthly liquidity premium estimates of 5.3 bp for expected returns and 2.4 bp for risk-adjusted returns. Estimated premiums rise after the financial crisis and remain high thereafter.

This paper uses option prices to learn about the equity price uncertainty surrounding information released on earnings announcement dates. To do this, we introduce reduced-form models and estimators to separate price uncertainty about earnings announcements from normal day-to-day volatility. Empirically, we find strong support for the importance of earnings announcements. We find that the anticipated price uncertainty is quantitatively large, varies across time, and is informative about the future return volatility. Finally, we quantify the impact of earnings announcements on formal option pricing models. Received April 13, 2017; editorial decision February 5, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.

Failing to refinance a mortgage can cost a borrower thousands of dollars. Based on administrative data from a large financial institution, we show that around 50% of borrowers leave thousands of dollars on the table by not refinancing. Survey data indicate that, among all the behavioral factors examined, only suspicion of banks’ motives is consistently related to the probability of accepting a refinancing offer. Finally, we report the results of three field experiments showing that enticing offers made by banks fail to increase participation and may even deepen suspicion. Our findings highlight the important role of trust in financial decisions. Received July 12, 2017; editorial decision April 3, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

We propose that fitted values from market-wide regressions of firm returns on lagged firm characteristics provide useful benchmarks for assessing whether average returns to certain stocks are abnormal. To illustrate, we study eight documented events with abnormal returns, including credit rating and analyst recommendation downgrades, initial and seasoned public equity offerings, mergers and acquisitions, dividend initiations, share repurchases, and stock splits. We show that the apparently abnormal returns in the months after these events are substantially reduced or eliminated when compared to characteristic-based benchmarks. Characteristic-based benchmarks perform better in explaining post-event returns than do recent four- and five-factor models. Received September 19, 2016; editorial decision February 16, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Cryptocurrencies are among the largest unregulated markets in the world. We find that approximately one-quarter of bitcoin users are involved in illegal activity. We estimate that around $76 billion of illegal activity per year involve bitcoin (46% of bitcoin transactions), which is close to the scale of the U.S. and European markets for illegal drugs. The illegal share of bitcoin activity declines with mainstream interest in bitcoin and with the emergence of more opaque cryptocurrencies. The techniques developed in this paper have applications in cryptocurrency surveillance. Our findings suggest that cryptocurrencies are transforming the black markets by enabling “black e-commerce.” Received June 1, 2017; editorial decision December 8, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.