We analyze a financially distressed owner-managed project. The main results of the model are: (1) borrower default is an endogenous response to the anticipated restructuring–foreclosure outcome; (2) the lender’s restructuring–foreclosure decision depends critically on the interaction between project value and industry liquidity; and (3) the lender waits for the industry to recapitalize before selling assets obtained through foreclosure. Empirical analysis of a large sample of defaulted commercial real estate loans supports many of the model predictions, including restructuring–foreclosure outcomes that are consistent with endogenous borrower default and firesale discounts that vary depending on industry market conditions at the time of foreclosure.

We analyze a financially distressed owner-managed project. The main results of the model are: (1) borrower default is an endogenous response to the anticipated restructuring-foreclosure outcome; (2) the lender's restructuring-foreclosure decision depends critically on the interaction between project value and industry liquidity; and (3) the lender waits for the industry to recapitalize before selling assets obtained through foreclosure. Empirical analysis of a large sample of defaulted commercial real estate loans supports many of the model predictions, including restructuring-foreclosure outcomes that are consistent with endogenous borrower default and firesale discounts that vary depending on industry market conditions at the time of foreclosure.

In this article, we provide a novel rationale for credit ratings. The rationale that we propose is that credit ratings serve as a coordinating mechanism in situations where multiple equilibria can obtain. We show that credit ratings provide a "focal point" for firms and their investors, and explore the vital, but previously overlooked implicit contractual relationship between a credit rating agency (CRA) and a firm through its credit watch procedures. Credit ratings can help fix the desired equilibrium and as such play an economically meaningful role. Our model provides several empirical predictions and insights regarding the expected price impact of rating changes.

In this article, we provide a novel rationale for credit ratings. The rationale that we propose is that credit ratings serve as a coordinating mechanism in situations where multiple equilibria can obtain. We show that credit ratings provide a “focal point” for firms and their investors, and explore the vital, but previously overlooked implicit contractual relationship between a credit rating agency (CRA) and a firm through its credit watch procedures. Credit ratings can help fix the desired equilibrium and as such play an economically meaningful role. Our model provides several empirical predictions and insights regarding the expected price impact of rating changes.