Knowledge that Transforms

The Securities and Exchange Commission now requires auditors to review interim earnings reports on a timely basis. Previously, auditors could perform this review retrospectively, as part of the year-end audit. We investigate whether timely reviews are likely to increase the relevance and reliability of reported earnings, as reflected by the extent to which the earnings-return relation is contemporaneous. We find that when the auditor reviews interim earnings on a timely basis, the association between quarterly returns and earnings (and between quarterly returns and unexpected earnings) is predominantly contemporaneous. When the auditor reviews interim earnings retrospectively, however, the association between quarterly returns and earnings is not entirely contemporaneous; with retrospective reviews, returns lead interim earnings. We conclude from these findings that timely reviews increase the likelihood that accounting earnings reflect economic events contemporaneously with returns.

We assess the usefulness of deferred tax expense in detecting earnings management. Assuming greater discretion under GAAP than under tax rules, and assuming managers exploit such discretion to manage income upward primarily in ways that do not affect current taxable income, then such earnings management will generate book-tax differences that increase deferred tax expense. Our results provide evidence consistent with deferred tax expense generally being incrementally useful beyond total accruals and abnormal accruals derived from two Jones-type models in detecting earnings management to avoid an earnings decline and to avoid a loss. Only total accruals is incrementally useful in detecting earnings management to meet analysts' earnings forecasts. Deferred tax expense is more accurate than the accrual measures in classifying firm-years as successfully avoiding a loss, whereas no one measure is more accurate in classifying firm-years as avoiding an earnings decline or meeting analysts' forecasts.

In this study I investigate the relation between information complexity and financial analysts' use of that information. I rank by complexity six tax-law changes enacted by the Tax Reform Act of 1986, and then examine analysts' explicit forecasts of effective tax rates around those changes. I show that analysts' revisions of their forecasts of effective tax rates appear to impound the effects of the less complex tax-law changes but not the more complex changes. Furthermore, as expected, if analysts assimilate less complex (but not more complex) information, the magnitude of the errors in their forecasts of effective tax rates increases with the effects of the more complex tax-law changes, but is unrelated to the less complex changes. Taken together, these results indicate that analysts assimilate less complex information to a greater extent than they assimilate more complex information. Either analysts' abilities to incorporate specific information into their forecasts is a decreasing function of the complexity of that information, or analysts choose not to assimilate complex information because the cost would exceed the benefit. In either case, complexity reduces analysts' use of information. These results demonstrate the importance of considering information attributes, such as complexity, when investigating why analysts' forecasts fail to incorporate all public information.

The economic theory of auditor independence (DeAngelo 1981b) suggests that auditors' incentives to compromise their independence are related to client importance. Using ratios of client fees and of nonaudit fees divided by the audit firm's U.S. revenues or a surrogate for the audit-practice-office revenues as measures of client importance, we investigate their association with Jones-model abnormal accruals. In a sample of 1,871 clients of Big 5 audit firms we do not find a statistically significant association between abnormal accruals and any of the client importance measures. Our theory development also suggests that auditor incentives to compromise independence should increase with the extent of client opportunities and incentives to manage earnings, and decrease with the strength of corporate governance and auditor expertise. We also do not find a statistically significant association between abnormal accruals and client importance in subsets of the samples partitioned by proxies for these factors.

Frankel and Lee (1998) show that the value-to-price ratio (Vf/P) predicts future abnormal returns for up to three years, where Vf is an estimate of fundamental value based on a residual income valuation framework operationalized using analyst earnings forecasts. In this study, we examine whether the Vf/P effect is due to market mispricing or omitted risk factors. We find that the Vf/P effect is partially concentrated around the future earnings announcements, consistent with the mispricing explanation. On using an extensive set of risk proxies, suggested by Gebhardt et al. (2001) and Gode and Mohanram (2001), we also find that Vf/P is significantly related to some risk proxies. However, after controlling for these risk factors, Vf/P continues to exhibit a significant positive association with future returns suggesting that these risk factors are not responsible for the Vf/P effect. Overall, the results seem consistent with the mispricing explanation for the Vf/P effect.

This paper studies the capital budgeting process in a setting where a manager is privately informed about the profitability of an investment project and enjoys nonpecuniary benefits of control (“empire benefits”). I characterize the optimal required rate of return and show that a delegation scheme with residual income-based compensation can replicate the benchmark performance achieved under centralization. The main result of the paper is that the optimal capital charge rate for computing residual income always exceeds the required rate of return as a result of empire benefits. This highlights the necessity for future empirical studies on capital budgeting to distinguish between alternative forms of hurdle rates. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I further show that if compensation contracts are derived endogenously, then the shareholders will ultimately benefit from the manager's empire benefits even under asymmetric information.

We empirically examine standard agency predictions about how performance measures are optimally weighted to provide CEO incentives. Consistent with prior empirical research, we document that the relative weight on price and non-price performance measures in CEO cash pay is a decreasing function of the relative variances. Agency theory speaks to the weights in total compensation (annual total pay and changes in the CEO's equity portfolio value), however, and we document that very little of CEOs' total incentives come from cash pay. We also document that variation in the relative weight on price and non-price performance measures in CEO total compensation is an increasing function of the relative variances. The conflicting results using total compensation indicate that existing findings on cash pay cannot be interpreted as evidence supporting standard agency predictions. Based on our results, we suggest approaches for future research on performance measure use in CEO total compensation.

The accuracy of sell-side analysts' forecast revisions is related to a number of factors, including characteristics of the analyst and the age of the forecast. In this study we examine whether there are differences in how sophisticated and unsophisticated investors use these factors to predict the relative accuracy of forecast revisions. We adapt the lens model methodological approach from the judgment and decision-making literature to investigate these differences in an archival setting. Our results suggest that sophisticated investors have greater knowledge overall about the relation of the factors to forecast accuracy. Further, our evidence is consistent with sophisticated investors relying more on the specific factors that provide the most benefits (relative to their costs) for predicting relative forecast accuracy.

We document several factors that help explain cross-sectional variations in the post-revision price drift associated with analyst forecast revisions. First, the market does not make a sufficient distinction between revisions that provide new information (“high-innovation” revisions) and revisions that merely move toward the consensus (“low-innovation” revisions). Second, the price adjustment process is faster and more complete for “celebrity” analysts (Institutional Investor All-Stars) than for more obscure yet highly accurate analysts (Wall Street Journal Earnings-Estimators). Third, controlling for other factors, the price adjustment process is faster and more complete for firms with greater analyst coverage. Finally, a substantial portion of the delayed price adjustment occurs around subsequent earnings-announcement and forecast-revision dates. Collectively, these findings show that more subtle aspects of an earnings revision signal can hinder the efficacy of market price discovery, particularly in firms with relatively low analyst coverage, and that subsequent earnings-related news events serve as catalysts in the price discovery process.

We analyze financial statements from 34 countries for the period 1984–1998 to construct a panel data set measuring three dimensions of reported accounting earnings for each country: earnings aggressiveness, loss avoidance, and earnings smoothing. We hypothesize that these three dimensions are associated with uninformative or opaque earnings, and so we combine these three measures to obtain an overall earnings opacity time-series measure per country. We then explore whether our three measures of earnings opacity affect two characteristics of an equity market in a country: the return the shareholders demand and how much they trade. While not all results are consistent for our three individual earnings opacity measures, our panel data tests document that, after controlling for other influences, an increase in overall earnings opacity in a country is linked to an economically significant increase in the cost of equity and an economically significant decrease in trading in the stock market of that country.