Archival studies report that analysts' annual earnings forecasts are optimistic, particularly for firms reporting recent losses. This study addresses whether forecast optimism is an unintentional consequence of analysts' reactions to the structure of information about managers' future plans. I investigate whether analysts who are forecasting earnings use processes consistent with scenario thinking: envisioning a sequence of events in which proposed actions lead to future outcomes. I study professional sell-side analysts in a 2×2 between-subjects experiment with the structure of information (scenario vs. list) and the sign of prior earnings (loss vs. profit) as independent variables. I find that analysts make more optimistic two-year-ahead earnings forecasts when provided information about a manager's future plans framed as scenarios than when provided the same information framed as lists. I also find that scenario-induced optimism is greater for a firm with prior losses than for a firm with prior profits. The results are consistent with scenario thinking causing analysts to issue optimistic forecasts.

This study provides evidence on how auditors' use of decision aids affects jurors' evaluation of auditor legal liability, based on an experiment in which actual jurors responded to a hypothetical audit lawsuit. The results suggest that decision aids can have positive, negative, or neutral effects on auditors' legal liability, depending on how auditors use the decision aid and the reliability of the decision aid. For high-reliability aids, jurors attributed more responsibility for an audit failure to the auditor when the auditor overrode the recommendation of a decision aid than when the auditor did not use the decision aid. However, jurors attributed lower responsibility to an auditor who relied on the recommendation of a highly reliable decision aid, even though the aid turned out to be incorrect. In contrast to the high-reliability conditions, auditors' use of the decision aid had virtually no impact on jurors' liability judgments when the reliability of the decision aid was low.

We investigate the association between corporate international diversification and the accuracy and bias of consensus analysts' earnings forecasts. We find that greater corporate international diversification is associated with less accurate and more optimistic forecasts. Our results suggest that international diversification reflects unique dimensions of forecasting difficulty that are not captured in previously identified determinants. This evidence suggests that as firms become more geographically diversified, forecasting their earnings becomes more complex.

Prior research addressing questions such as whether investors respond to a hypothesized information event used tests of unusual return and/or trading activity as alternative measures of investor response. We investigate which of these two metrics maximizes the likelihood that a researcher correctly detects the presence or absence of a response. Building on the repeated-sample framework established in Brown and Warner (1980, 1985) and Dyckman et al. (1984), we provide evidence that (1) volume-based metrics, especially measures based on numbers of transactions, provide more powerful tests of investor response to public disclosures than do return-based metrics; and (2) supplementing return-based measures with trading-based measures increases the power of tests designed to detect investor response. Our conclusions are particularly relevant when power is critical (i.e., when sample sizes are small or anticipated investor response is small). Our evidence also suggests that before concluding that investors do not respond to a public disclosure, based on a returns analysis, researchers should confirm the nonresponse inference with trading-based measures.

This paper suggests a new measure of one aspect of the quality of working capital accruals and earnings. One role of accruals is to shift or adjust the recognition of cash flows over time so that the adjusted numbers (earnings) better measure firm performance. However, accruals require assumptions and estimates of future cash flows. We argue that the quality of accruals and earnings is decreasing in the magnitude of estimation error in accruals. We derive an empirical measure of accrual quality as the residuals from firm-specific regressions of changes in working capital on past, present, and future operating cash flows. We document that observable firm characteristics can be used as instruments for accrual quality (e.g., volatility of accruals and volatility of earnings). Finally, we show that our measure of accrual quality is positively related to earnings persistence.

This paper examines whether auditor fees are associated with earnings management and the market reaction to the disclosure of auditor fees. Using data collected from proxy statements, we present evidence that nonaudit fees are positively associated with small earnings surprises and the magnitude of discretionary accruals, while audit fees are negatively associated with these earnings management indicators. We also find evidence of a negative association between nonaudit fees and share values on the date the fees were disclosed, although the effect is small in economic terms.

Citing fear of legal liability as a partial explanation, prior research documents (1) managers' reluctance to voluntarily disclose management earnings forecasts, and (2) greater forecast disclosure frequencies in periods of bad news. We provide evidence on how management earnings forecast disclosure differs between the United States (U.S.) and Canada, two otherwise similar business environments with different legal regimes. Canadian securities laws and judicial interpretations create a far less litigious environment than exists in the U.S. We find a greater frequency of management earnings forecast disclosure in Canada relative to the U.S. Further, although U.S. managers are relatively more likely to issue forecasts during interim periods in which earnings decrease, Canadian managers do not exhibit that tendency. Instead, Canadian managers issue more forecasts when earnings are increasing, and their forecasts are of annual rather than interim earnings. Also consistent with a less litigious environment, Canadian managers issue more precise and longer-term forecasts. These findings hold after controlling for other determinants of management earnings forecast disclosure that might differ between the two countries—firm size, earnings volatility, information asymmetry, growth, capitalization rates, and membership in high-technology and regulated industries.

In 1998, the SEC expressed concern that conference calls encourage selective disclosure by revealing new information to financial analysts privy to the call. This study investigates whether the regular use of earnings-related conference calls increases the amount of information available to financial analysts by examining the effect of conference calls on analysts' forecast error and dispersion. Results indicate that conference calls increase analysts' ability to forecast earnings accurately, suggesting that these calls increase the total information available about a firm. We also find some evidence that conference calls decrease dispersion among analysts. Given conference calls were generally restricted during our sample period, our evidence suggests that conference calls may have contributed to an information gap between analysts privy to the call and the remainder of the investment community. We also investigate whether conference calls differentially affect analysts' forecast errors depending on analysts' prior forecasting ability or brokerage-house affiliation. We find evidence suggesting that analysts with relatively weak prior forecasting performance benefit more from conference calls, suggesting that conference calls help “level the playing field” across analysts.

Using both a market-based and an accrual-based measure of conservatism, we find that firms facing more severe conflicts over dividend policy tend to use more conservative accounting. Furthermore, we document that accounting conservatism is associated with a lower cost of debt after controlling for other determinants of firms' debt costs. Our collective evidence is consistent with the notion that accounting conservatism plays an important role in mitigating bondholder-shareholder conflicts over dividend policy, and in reducing firms' debt costs.