Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract Firms with more positive employee expectations tend to earn higher future returns, delivering annualized abnormal returns ranging from 8% to 11%. Employees’ forward-looking expectations are a stronger return predictor than employee satisfaction, which is backward-looking. Employee expectations can predict returns because they reflect information about firms’ fundamentals that has not yet been reflected in traditional data sources, such as earnings reports. Hedge funds actively trade on this information, consistent with a decay in forecasting power over longer holding horizons. Overall, this paper highlights the importance of labor in asset pricing, specifically from the perspective of employee expectations. (JEL G12, G14)

Abstract We propose a portfolio-balance model of the yield curve in which inflation is determined through an interest rate rule that satisfies the Taylor principle. Because arbitrageurs care about their real wealth, they only absorb an increase in the supply of nominal bonds if they are compensated with an increase in their real rates of return. Since the Taylor principle implies that the real return on nominal bonds positively depends on inflation, inflation increases in equilibrium when there is an increase in the supply of nominal bonds to compensate arbitrageurs for the additional supply they have to hold. (JEL E43, E52, G12, H63)

Abstract An extensive literature studies interactions of stock market anomalies using double-sorted portfolios. But given hundreds of known candidate anomalies, examining selected interactions is subject to a data mining critique. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of all possible double-sorted portfolios constructed from 102 underlying anomalies. We find hundreds of statistically significant anomaly interactions, even after accounting for multiple hypothesis testing. An out-of-sample trading strategy that invests in the top backward-looking double-sort strategy generates equal-weighted (value-weighted) monthly average returns of 4% (2.7%) at an annualized Sharpe ratio of 2 (1.38), on par with state-of-the-art anomaly-based machine learning strategies.

Abstract Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) were established to mitigate default losses resulting from counterparty risk in derivatives markets. In a parsimonious model, we show that clearing benefits are unevenly distributed across market participants. Loss sharing rules determine who wins or loses from clearing. Current rules disproportionately benefit market participants with flat portfolios. Instead, those with directional portfolios are relatively worse off, consistent with their reluctance to voluntarily use central clearing. Alternative loss sharing rules can address cross-sectional disparities in clearing benefits. However, we show that CCPs may favor current rules to maximize fee income, with externalities on clearing participation. (JEL G18, G23, G28, G12)

Abstract This paper proposes a novel approach to estimating the probability weighting function (PWF) of investors in the option market. We match observed option prices to the option pricing bounds under stochastic dominance rules. Using 1-month S&P 500 index option data, we find that investors could subjectively employ an inverse S-shaped probability weighting function, which increases the weights on extreme returns and asymmetrically assigns greater weights to extremely low returns than to extremely high returns. Our findings suggest that the inverse S-shaped nature of the PWFs is robust across various estimation specifications, such as adopting an alternative methodology to construct the return distribution, and employing option data with different times to maturity. (JEL G12)

Abstract This paper reappraises the usefulness of combining individual forecasts for predicting the U.S. equity premium. For comparison, we also consider penalized regression and dimension reduction approaches. We fail to find evidence of predictive ability in recent decades, regardless of the forecasting method used. Further analysis shows that an increase in the correlation of individual forecast errors is an important factor in the declining performance of combination forecasts.

Abstract We find a negative relation between firm-level political risk and future delta-hedged equity option returns. A quasi-natural experiment based on Brexit corroborates this finding since after the referendum there is a decrease in the option returns of the positive-Brexit exposure firms. The predictability is driven by the jump risk component of political uncertainty, is more pronounced in periods of high intermediary constraints, and is stronger among high-demand pressure options but weaker among politically active firms. Finally, consistent with a risk-based explanation, investors of options on politically risky firms are compensated with high returns when major unexpected political shocks happen. (JEL G13, G18)

Abstract We show how the Joslin, Singleton, and Zhu (2011) factor extraction approach to estimating the Gaussian term structure model can be modified to handle the interest rate lower bound without the approximations used in other approaches. This drastically reduces the computation time and produces more robust estimates of the lower bound parameter and the shadow rate. It makes feasible the extensive specification search necessary to allow for unspanned factors as in Joslin, Priebsch, and Singleton (2014), allowing the term structure model to be used to better assess the effects of policy on the term premium and market expectations. (JEL G12, C13, E43)

Abstract Traditional value measures performed poorly over the past three decades. We reevaluate the value strategy using a new measure—the ratio of cash-based operating profitability to price (COP/P)—and find a zero-investment portfolio that buys the highest-COP/P stocks and shorts the lowest-COP/P stocks earns monthly returns of 0.78% on a value-weighted basis and 1.04% on an equal-weighted basis. The COP/P effect holds even for large-capitalization stocks and exists even in the post-1990 period, when book-to-market does not predict returns. The COP/P measure subsumes many widely used value measures and the conservative-minus-aggressive investment factor. (JEL G02, G12)

Abstract Using contingent-claims valuation, we introduce novel hedge ratios for credit exposures using put options. Option hedge ratios are generally in line with the empirical sensitivities of credit spread changes to put option returns and, relative to stock hedge ratios, produce further reductions in volatility for a portfolio of North American firms. We show that option hedge ratios capture option-specific credit exposure related to the VIX index and the default spread, which is unaccounted for by Merton’s (1974) equity hedge ratios alone. Combining stocks and put options for credit risk hedging can be done effectively using the volatility smirk. (JEL E43, E44, G10)