Knowledge that Transforms

Experimental data have consistently shown diversity in beliefs as well as in actions among experimental subjects. This paper presents and compares alternative behavioral econometric models for the characterization of player heterogeneity, both between and within subpopulations of players. In particular, two econometric models of diversity within sub-populations of players are investigated, one using a model of computational errors and the other allowing for diversity in prior beliefs around a modal prior for the subpopulation.

The empirical literature on intertemporal labor supply behavior documents that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor supply is very low, with a plausible range of zero to 0.2. Drawing upon the literature on the distribution of instrumental variables (IV) estimators, this paper demonstrates that this conventional wisdom is erroneous because it does not take into account the severe finite sample bias in these estimates that arise from weak instruments. This paper adopts several approaches to adjust for the problems induced by these weak instruments. The empirical results show that, when uncorrected for finite sample bias, the two-stage least-squares (2SLS) estimate of the elasticity is essentially zero, as in most of the previous studies, with its valid confidence interval being open-ended, [−∞, +∞]. However, when corrected for finite sample bias, the estimate becomes approximately 0.5 with a much tighter confidence interval.

We estimate a multistage sequential logit model reflecting the structure of the disability determination process of the Social Security Administration (SSA). The model is estimated using household survey information exact-matched to SSA records on disability adjudications from 1989 to 1993. Under program provisions, different criteria dictate outcomes at different steps of the determination process. We find that, without the multistaged structural approach, effects of many important health, disability, and vocational factors are not readily discernible. As a result, split-sample predictions of overall allowance rates from the sequential model perform considerably better than do those for the conventional allowed/denied logit regression.

An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup is undertaken for the G7 economies and Australia. We find that the levels of prices and costs are best described as I(2) processes and that, except for Japan, a linear combination of the log levels of prices and costs cointegrate to the markup that is integrated of order 1. It is also shown that the markup in each case co-integrates with inflation and that higher inflation is associated with a lower markup in the long run.

Super-experienced bidders have learned to overcome the winner's curse but still earn less than 50% of Nash equilibrium profits. Subjects deviate from the complicated Nash strategy, employing piecewise-linear bid functions that are capable, in principle, of generating an equilibrium with average profits at or above the Nash benchmark. Thus, limited computational abilities alone cannot account for the reduced earnings. Further, subjects are far from best responding within this family of piecewise-linear bid functions. Alternative factors contributing to these reduced earnings are explored.

Assessing the impact of new technologies on health care costs is an important research area. This paper evaluates two technologies used to treat coronary artery disease. We estimate two separate stochastic frontier models—one for balloon angioplasty patients and one for cardiac bypass surgery patient—using data taken from detailed chart and cost files of a large urban hospital. Cost estimates for the two technologies are purged of inefficiency so that forecasts of the cost consequences of technology shift can be based on ‘best-practice’ production techniques. Learning behavior, physician effects, and patient clinical characteristics are also taken into account. We find that there are potential cost savings associated with making angioplasty a more perfect substitute for bypass surgery, as well as current inefficiency in production.

Why do governments tax exports at rates that are ultimately self-defeating? An answer may lie in the time-inconsistent nature of a low-tax policy. Using a dynamic model of export taxation, I show that the sustainability of a low-tax policy depends on three variables: the ratio of sunk costs to total costs, how heavily future export revenue is discounted, and expected future export earnings. Using data on taxation, leadership duration, and profitability, I test this theory for 32 countries and six crops from Sub-Saharan Africa. These three variables are statistically and economically relevant predictors of tax regime.

Using firm-level data, we estimate the effects of the major wave of 1991 breakups of Czechoslovak state-owned enterprises on the subsequent performance of the ‘master enterprises’ and spun-off divisions. We estimate the performance effects of spinoffs by comparing the performance of enterprises that remained intact throughout the 1990–1992 period to the performance of the master enterprises that experienced spinoffs and the newly spun-off subsidiaries. Our estimates suggest that the breakups had a significant immediate effect on the productive efficiency and on the profitability of industrial firms in 1991, and that the effect became much less significant in 1992. The effect is a negative function of the size of the spinoff, being positive for small to slightly above average-sized spinoffs and negative for very large ones. We cannot reject the hypothesis that the estimated effect was identical for the spun-off subsidiaries and the master enterprises that experienced the spinoffs. Our 1991 estimates suggest that the large firms created under the centrally planned system suffered from inefficiencies that were alleviated by the breakups. The 1992 estimates are consistent with increased competition and the appropriation of profits by managers.

Insurance fraud is now recognized as a significant resource-allocation problem in many markets. The object of this study is to verify how straight deductible contracts may affect the equilibrium level of falsification in automobile insurance. This type of contract is observed in many markets, even if it is not optimal under costly state falsification. A higher deductible may create incentives to fraud or cheat, particularly when the insured anticipates that the claim has a small probability of being audited. To verify this proposition, we estimate a loss equation for which one of the determinants is the amount of the deductible, using a data set of claims filed for damages following an automobile accident with twenty insurance companies in Quebec in 1992. Because we have access only to reported losses, a higher deductible also implies a lower probability of reporting small losses. To isolate the fraud effect related to the presence of a deductible in the contract, we jointly estimate a loss equation and a threshold equation. The threshold is the amount over which an insured decides to report a given loss. It can be interpreted as a personal deductible, and it is not observable. Our results indicate, among other things, that with an appropriate correction for selectivity the amount of the deductible is a significant determinant of the reported loss, at least when no other vehicle is involved in the accident; in other words, when the presence of witnesses is less likely.

Using confidential firm-level panel data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, we examine how the bilateral trade flows of U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) and their Canadian affiliates responded to U.S.-Canadian tariff reductions from 1983 to 1992. We find that Canadian affiliate sales to the United States are negatively correlated with Canadian tariffs, but U.S. parent sales to Canadian affiliates have little association with Canadian tariffs. These results contradict the notion that Canadian tariff reductions would lead to a ‘hollowing out’ of Canadian manufacturing. We also find substantial heterogeneity in MNC responses to tariff changes within narrowly defined manufacturing industries. Overall, bilateral trade liberalization is trade-creating, as U.S. MNCs integrated their North American production such that Canadian affiliates increased sales to the United States and reduced domestic sales.