Knowledge that Transforms

Several recent empirical studies have been forced to reject exact 1:1 cointegration between spot and forward exchange rates. Theoretically, this is shown to provide a possible explanation for the puzzling negative estimates reported from spot-return-forward-premium regressions. In particular, the coefficient in this regression has a unit root component in its limit distribution that imparts a bias and skewness to the estimator. Simulations are used to demonstrate how even very small deviations from 1:1 cointegration can result in substantial bias. The empirical evidence suggests that the implied Dickey-Fuller-type terms do exhibit a downward bias, yet are of insufficient magnitude to fully account for the puzzling regression coefficients mentioned above.

This paper examines the relationship between the relative price of nontraded goods and sectoral total factor productivities (TFPs) in the context of the Balassa-Samuelson model. With perfect capital mobility internationally and perfect factor mobility domestically, the relative price of nontraded goods is predicted to be independent of preferences over traded and nontraded goods, and completely determined by TFPs in the traded- and nontraded-goods sectors. Panel cointegration and unit root tests, applied to a panel of fourteen OECD economies, indicate that the relative price of nontraded goods and the labor-share-adjusted TFP differential are cointegrated with the unit cointegration vector.

Estimates of the NAIRU are usually derived either from a Phillips curve or from a wage curve. This paper investigates the correspondence between the operational NAIRU concepts and the steady state of a dynamic wage-price model. We derive the parameter restrictions that secure that correspondence. The full set of restrictions can be tested by econometric analysis of the wage-price system, and this method is demonstrated for Norwegian data. A set of necessary conditions can be tested from estimated wage curves alone. Existing international evidence from empirical wage equations are reinterpreted in light of these conditions.

A political jurisdiction may decide to cooperate in public schooling provision with its neighbors or remain independent. The determinants of the consolidation decision are compared for the richer and the poorer and for the whiter and the less white jurisdiction in each potential consolidation pair. Property values and scale economies matter most. However, poorer jurisdictions prefer merging with richer ones that are less white than themselves. Whiter jurisdictions prefer to consolidate with less white ones of similar income. Less white jurisdictions are more open to consolidation with whiter ones if their incomes differ in either direction. Traditional club-theory predictions are not supported.

We report econometric results concerning the diffusion of detachable chairlifts in the United States that provide the first empirical evidence that the adoption of a technological innovation by a firm decreases the likelihood that a local competitor will also adopt it. We model the effect that an innovation in service speed has on a f's incentive to differentiate the quality of its service from that of its competitors. In our model, the incentive to adopt is negatively related to the number of competitors who have already adopted. Our empirical results support this hypothesis.

We analyze the effects of trade barriers using highly disaggregated data. The level of disaggregation allows us to separate the effects of tariffs and nontariff barriers (NTBs) into reduction, diversion, and compression effects. We find that multilateral tariffs significantly reduce trade flows and that trade preferences have a significant diverting effect. We also find that higher multilateral tariffs tend to shift trade towards larger exporters, suggesting that the desire to minimize fixed costs associated with trading dominates any preference for variety. In the case of NTBs, we find that, as often as not, the imposition of an NTB leads to an increase in the value of trade; in industries with low import demand elasticities, the influence of rising prices outweighs the decline in quantity.

In the 1990s, many states passed workers' compensation laws to control cost growth. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we determine the impact of these laws on the frequency of reported workplace injuries. In response to restrictions that make it more difficult to file claims, reported days-away-from-work injuries decline, accounting for between 7.0% and 9.4% of the dramatic fall in their frequency in 1991–1997. At the same time, these filing disincentives appear to account for 6.8% of the increase in cases with only restricted work activity, although the evidence is weaker for these injuries. Restricting workers' choice of medical care provider did not appear to reduce the frequency of cases in any nonfatal injury category.

This paper investigates depository institutions' decisions whether or not to impose surcharges (direct usage fees) on nondepositors who use their ATMs. In addition to documenting patterns of surcharging, we examine motives for surcharging, including both direct generation of fee revenue and the potential to attract deposit customers who wish to avoid incurring surcharges at an institution's ATMs. Consistent with expectations, we find that the probability of surcharging increases with both the institution's share of market ATMs and the time since surcharging was first allowed in the state, and decreases with increasing local ATM density. Further, we find evidence consistent with the use of surcharges to attract deposit customers who are new to the local banking market, but we find no evidence that larger banks use surcharges as a means to attract existing customers away from smaller local competitors.

Because of common data limitations, the existing testing framework for the generalized composite commodity theorem (Lewbel, 1996) is incomplete. This note clarifies and strengthens the testing procedure by implementing modified Bonferroni procedures. The conditions are established for consistency between the existing and modified Bonferroni tests. In an empirical application, the Bonferroni tests provide more powerful support for the generalized composite commodity theorem than is obtained from the existing test.

The United States became a net exporter of manufactured goods around 1910 after a dramatic surge in iron and steel exports began in the mid-1890s. This paper argues that natural-resource abundance fueled the expansion of iron and steel exports in part by enabling a sharp reduction in the price of U.S. exports relative to other competitors. The commercial exploitation of the Mesabi iron ore range, for example, reduced domestic ore prices by 50% in the mid-1890s and was equivalent to over a decade's worth of industry productivity improvement in its effect on iron and steel export prices. The nontradability of American ore resulted in its distinctive impact on the pattern of U.S. trade. The results are consistent with Wright's (1990) finding that U.S. manufactured exports were natural-resource-intensive at this time.