B Y the spring of I958 the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, as a part of its work in aiding underdeveloped countries, had sent major economic missions to fifteen countries: British Guiana, Ceylon, Colombia, Cuba, Guatemala, Iraq, Jamaica, Jordan, Malaya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Surinam, Syria, and Turkey.' published reports of these missions comprise the largest single collection of information extant on the problems and characteristics of underdeveloped economies. A careful reader of these reports is impressed with the wealth of detail and the obviously painstaking care with which the material has been assembled. Since more than seven years have now elapsed since the first report, it is appropriate to review this material and to ask how much has been learned about the process of development and also how successful the mission reports have been in diagnosing the key issues and in establishing development programs. What elements might we look for or expect to find in reports of this kind? First, since programs are dependent on good statistics, both to provide a basis on which to make decisions and to evaluate the effects of decisions once taken, some careful attention to the establishment of an effective social accounting system is to be expected. Second, the major outlines of a development program are required: the targets, the operational policies to achieve the objectives, the calculations of probable outcomes, etc. Flexibility is a virtue, but the outline should be internally consistent and unambiguous in showing the connection between the objectives and the means to those objectives. Third, in order for the programs to be implemented, a priority system for projects must be carefully delineated, and it must be shown that the priorities are consistent with fulfilling the development objectives. Fourth, in terms of the paths to development the real alternatives open to the country should be carefully surveyed, including estimation of the pay-offs and costs from alternative courses of action. Fifth, the price effects of development programs, probable inflationary pressures, and the effects on the balance of payments and the capacity to import require analysis. These are major elements which one might expect to find in a good economic development analysis; the list could be extended. In the remainder of this paper it is argued that the mission reports have covered these points inadequately, not at all, or ambiguously, with the result that the reports are unsatisfactory as economic analyses and unsuitable as guides to development programs. Before proceeding to the substantive argument, however, one qualification must be noted. These reports were prepared at different times, by different groups of people, for different countries. They do not all share the same faults or the same virtues. ensuing discussion should make it amply clear that the above criticisms do not apply in toto to all the reports, nor to any one report in particular. * This is a condensation of a report titled The Failures of the World Bank Missions, RAND Corporation, P-I4II, June 24, I958. I am indebted to my research assistant Mrs. Marjorie Hald for her help in surveying the reports. Dr. H. J. Barnett and Dr. Charles Wolf read the original manuscript and made many helpful comments. 'In chronological order the reports on these countries are: Basis of a Development Program for Colombia (I950); Economic Development of Guatemala (I95I); Economy of Turkey (I95I); Report on Cuba (I95I); Surinam: Recommendations for a Ten Year Development Program (I952); Economic Development of Jamaica (I952); Economic Development of Iraq (I952); Economic Development of Ceylon (I953); Economic Development of British Guiana (I953); Economic Development of Nicaragua (I953) ; Economic Development of Mexico (I953); Economic Development of Malaya (I955); Economic Development of Syria (I955); Economic Development of Nigeria (I955); Economic Development of Jordan (I957). Reports on British Honduras, Uruguay, and Somaliland have been issued in mimeograph form, but they are specialized and are not considered here. In June I957, a mission was sent to Thailand; although somewhat different in intent from previous missions, it will issue a report at some time. A summary of some of these reports appears in J. Spengler, IBRD Mission Economic Growth Theory, American Economic Review, XLIV (May I954), 583-99. Hereafter in this paper the reports will be cited by the country name.

William J. Moore, John Raisian, Union-Nonunion Wage Differentials in the Public Administration, Educational, and Private Sectors: 1970-1983, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 69, No. 4 (Nov., 1987), pp. 608-616

sumer reliance upon advertising since these mechanisms substitute as sources of product/vendor information. One can predict, therefore, that when relative prices favor consumer reliance upon advertising as information, producers will respond accordingly. This prediction also received empirical verification-advertising intensity by sellers in the mobile Washington, D.C. area greatly exceeded advertising intensity in the relatively stable Baltimore, Maryland area.

During the last two decades the issue of equality according to sex and race has become one of increasing importance to economists. An extant literature on the economics of discrimination began with the pioneering work of Becker (1957). This paper is an attempt to shed further light on the extent of employer discrimination by sex and race by comparing the earnings of self-employed workers to their wage and salary counterparts. In short, if employer discrimination is a principal source of discrimination against blacks and women, then we would expect the black/white and female/male earnings ratios to be higher for the self-employed compared to their wage and salary counterparts. No discrimination of this type is applicable to self-employed workers. In addition, blacks and women should be relatively overrepresented among the self-employed compared to wage and salary workers in the economy. Section II of this paper further elaborates on this indirect method to estimate the extent of employer discrimination in the labor market for blacks and women. In section III, the results of this method are presented using the 1978 Current Population Survey as the data source. Results indicate the black/white and female/ male earnings ratios are no larger for the self-employed compared to their wage and salary counterparts, even after making various attempts to adjust for differences in other variables that affect earnings, and to limit the influence of consumer discrimination on the results.

THEORISTS of the American labor movement long have argued over the causes of fluctuations in union membership and the prospects for future union growth. For a number of years, the hypothesis of Commons (1932) and Perlman (1966), which related union expansion to the business cycle, was the most widely accepted explanation of the fluctuations in union membership. the years, a number of critics such as Dunlop (1948), Shister (1953), and Bernstein (1954) challenged the business cycle hypothesis on the grounds that American unionism is too complex and diffuse a social phenomenon to be understood in such simple terms. They contended that a multicausal system (including the cycle) is necessary to account for the rise of trade unionism. Although union theorists have frequently provided statistical data that are consistent with their inferences concerning the major factors influencing union growth, prior to the study by Ashenfelter and Pencavel (1969) their hypotheses had not been tested on an empirical plane which could disprove the suggested causal relationship between such factors and union growth. Ashenfelter and Pencavel (A-P) used multiple regression analysis to estimate a single behavioral relationship, including social and political as well as economic variables, capable of explaining the growth of American trade unions membership in the period 1900-1960. Although the model of A-P apparently has identified the determinants of union growth, there is some question as to whether the model has equally identified the determinants of future union growth. In econometric time-series analysis, it is assumed that differential periods of time are homogeneous, except for differences in the explicit variables of the system that are measured, and for differences in random effects. Over long sweeps of time, this assumption may become very tenuous.' This issue lies at the heart of the recent debate among the so-called saturationists and the school concerning the future prospects of the rate of growth of the American labor movement.2 The saturationists argue that significant changes have occurred within the structure and composition of the American labor force which have caused the past determinants of union growth to be inoperable in the future.3 Proponents of the historical approach challenge the general validity of the influence of structural factors on the comparative propensity of workers to join unions. Taft (1963) contends that the saturationists argument assumes propensities and psychological attitudes which have not been proven. In fact, actual experience has shown these assumptions to be baseless, and not a scintilla of evidence has been presented to justify these conclusions. They maintain the labor movement increases its size in two ways at a modest pace over long spans of time and in sharp spurts at infrequent intervals, ... . and that the slow growth of unionism in the post World War II period easily can be fit into the theory.4 The debate between the saturationists and the school has not yet been resolved. The level of actual union membership has increased by 4,300,000 or 25.4% for the period 1953-1970, but the level of real union membership, as measured by the per cent of nonagricultural employment organized, has declined from 34.1 to 30.1. The recent success of the labor movement in organizing some difficult structural groups such as government employ-

R EGIONAL analysis has received an increasing amount of attention recently, a reflection in part of the growing volume of national macro-economic studies that point up the significance of regional compositions and regional patterns of behavior. This paper attempts to demonstrate the usefulness and flexibility of interindustry (or input-output) models for regional analysis. Specifically, the paper has three objectives: (i) to present an interindustry model for the state of Utah with a discussion of the problems both conceptual and empirical that arise in a model of this type; (2) to develop some measures for estimating the importance of individual industries in the regional economy via the calculation of income and employment multipliers; (3) to present some methods by which dynamic elements can be introduced into the static system. This is a necessary element if the model is to be used for the analysis of regional business cycles, industrial growth and technological change, or for the computation of period (that is, truncated) multipliers. The static model is useful in a number of ways, as we attempt to show, not the least of which is its usefulness as a social accounting device for the region; but, for more careful analyses of the problems mentioned above, a partially dynamic formulation is desirable.

Abstract In 2001 a large and sustained supply shock halted a heroin epidemic in Australia. We use drug offenses to identify individual opioid users and examine how the shock affected their mortality risks and criminal activity over the next eight years. Initially, gains from fewer overdoses are offset by drug substitution and more crime, including homicides. Most adverse effects dissipate over time, whereas persistent mortality reductions save the lives of around one in 48 individuals in our sample. Our results demonstrate that reducing the supply of illicit opioids can lead to meaningful longer-term improvements, even when the short-term effects are ambiguous.