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Spillovers in Wage Determination in U.S. Manufacturing Industries
HE main objective of this paper is to suggest an econometric technique for identifying and testing the existence and structure of the spillover effects in the wage determination process. The main notion underlying the socalled spillovers hypothesis is that the wage settlements achieved by the ill' industry's bargaining units reflect not only the traditional labor and product market forces affecting the it' industry but also the wage settlements achieved by the jth industry's bargaining units. The terminology used to describe this process has varied considerably-pattern wage-adjustment, key-bargains, spillovers, imitation and dynamic market-interdependence.1 The research strategy underlying this paper is to decompose the wage changes into two components -a deterministic component that can be explained in terms of exogenous labor and product market forces, industry specific or economy-wide, and a residual component. Does this residual wage component stand for purely random effects or does it represent some spillover effects? One can study the covariance structure of the residual wage vector to make inferences about the dynamic interdependence in wage movements between different industries. The plan of the paper is as follows: In section I a brief review of the literature is presented. In section II the underlying theoretical model is explained and the estimates of the empirical model are presented. In section III some simulation experiments of the spillover structure are presented. In section IV the conclusions and policy implications are discussed. 1. Literature Review
The Economics of Youth Job Search Behavior
A main goal of this empirical analysis of job search behavior is to test several hypotheses of the theoretical and empirical job search literature using observations on unemployed young men. Better understanding of job search differences between white and black youth is a secondary goal. Four main areas are examined which comprise the endogenous variables in a simultaneous-equation model of youth job search behavior: the direct cost of job search, the duration of unemployment, the relative reservation wage, and the anticipated time on the new job.