This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators. The analysis focuses on out-of-sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead. Results show that stock prices are useful with one- to three-quarter horizons, as are some well-known macroeconomic indicators. Beyond one quarter, however, the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables.

Economists' productivity over their careers and as measured by publication in leading journals declines very sharply with age. There is no difference by age in the probability that an article submitted to a leading journal will be accepted. Rates of declining productivity are no greater among the very top publishers than among others, and the probability of acceptance is increasingly related to the author's quality rather than the author's age.

This paper provides empirical evidence on the leading factors affecting the prices of new pharmaceuticals, both at introduction and after 4, 6, and 8 years. Most important is the extent of therapeutic advance embodied in a new product. For drugs which represent important therapeutic gains, launch prices can be two or three times those of existing drugs used for the same purposes, while drugs that largely duplicate the actions of currently available products are typically priced at comparable levels. In addition, the number of branded substitutes has a substantial negative effect on launch prices, which reflects the importance of competitive pressures. Duplicate products thereby play an important economic role in pharmaceutical markets.

We show that bank branching tends to mitigate localized market power by broadening the geographic scope of competition among banks, even though branch banking allows banks to differentiate themselves through their choices of branch locations. Banking services at peripheral locations will be priced more competitively when those locales are served by branch networks. We develop a theoretical model in support of this view and offer empirical evidence.

Previous tests for liquidity constraints using consumption Euler equations have frequently split the sample on the basis of wealth, arguing that low-wealth consumers are more likely to be constrained. We propose alternative tests using different and more direct information on borrowing constraints obtained from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances. In a first stage we estimate probabilities of being constrained, which are then utilized in a second sample, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, to estimate switching regression models of the Euler equation. Our estimates indicate stronger excess sensitivity associated with the possibility of liquidity constraints than the sample splitting approach.