Knowledge that Transforms

In this review article, I read a book that revolves around two papers published in 1954, one by Lionel McKenzie, and the other by Kenneth Arrow and Gérard Debreu—Till Düppe and E. Roy Weintraub’s Finding Equilibrium: Arrow, Debreu, McKenzie and the Problem of Scientific Credit (2014). Under a tripartite categorization of people, context, and credit, this book advances the claim that “by being applied, interpreted, shaped, and reshaped, [these] proofs came to symbolize a new intellectual culture in American economics and help reconstruct the body of economic knowledge” (Düppe and Weintraub 2014, p. 204). My reading leads me to contest this claim, and also to contest whether a history of economic analysis, much less a history of economic thought, can be written by taking refuge in the vernacular of ancillary discourses orthogonal to the subject matter whose history is being written, and without the disciplinary criteria that these discourses operate under. An unintended consequence of my reading is the identification of lacunae in the reception of these proofs, an underscoring of Paul A. Samuelson’s panoramic vision, and a reemphasis of the sterling contributions of David Gale, Thomas Kuhn, Hukukane Nikaido, and Hirofumi Uzawa.

This article reviews Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson’s book The Narrow Corridor. They depict a constant tussle between “society,” which wants liberty but cannot sustain order, and “state,” which maintains order but grows oppressive. I argue that the book has a huge theme and an impressive historical sweep of supportive examples, but leaves many open questions. The two conceptual categories should be unpacked to examine complex interactions within and across them, and other examples that counter the authors’ thesis should be reckoned with. However, the authors deserve congratulations for a brilliantly written and thought-provoking book that will inspire much future research.

The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World, by Paul Morland, argues for the importance of demography in both historical events and our current situation. Intended for a general audience, the book traces demographic developments from the late eighteenth century, arguing that the timing and pace of demographic change helps to explain why some countries became powerful and others did not. The author continues the story into the twentieth century, discussing the changes in age structure and internal ethno-religious balances that are consequences of demographic patterns. Many readers will find the questions and themes in The Human Tide interesting. Unfortunately, the book misrepresents some research findings and is confused about important demographic concepts. The Human Tide deals with fundamental changes in human society over the past two centuries, but for a clear account of those changes, readers will have to go elsewhere.

In Discrimination and Disparities, Thomas Sowell describes how economists think about the causes of disparities in socioeconomic outcomes. He cautions against government intervention to reduce disparities, noting that such interventions often have unintended consequences. In this review, I discuss the role of economic theory and empirical evidence in helping move society toward more equitable outcomes. I find far more reason to be hopeful about the role of government than Sowell does, but also argue for more experimentation and rigorous evaluation to be sure that our well-intentioned policies have their intended impacts.

This article provides guidance on how to evaluate and improve the forecasting ability of models in the presence of instabilities, which are widespread in economic time series. Empirically relevant examples include predicting the financial crisis of 2007–08, as well as, more broadly, fluctuations in asset prices, exchange rates, output growth, and inflation. In the context of unstable environments, I discuss how to assess models’ forecasting ability; how to robustify models’ estimation; and how to correctly report measures of forecast uncertainty. Importantly, and perhaps surprisingly, breaks in models’ parameters are neither necessary nor sufficient to generate time variation in models’ forecasting performance: thus, one should not test for breaks in models’ parameters, but rather evaluate their forecasting ability in a robust way. In addition, local measures of models’ forecasting performance are more appropriate than traditional, average measures.

This article synthesizes the large literature regarding the role of various players in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) securitization at the center of the 2008–09 US housing and financial crisis. Underwriting banks facilitated wide-scale mortgage fraud by knowingly misreporting key loan characteristics underlying mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Under the cover of complexity, credit rating agencies catered to investment banks by issuing increasingly inflated ratings on both RMBS and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Originators who engaged in mortgage fraud gained market share, as did CDO managers who catered to underwriters by accepting the lowest-quality MBS collateral. Appraisal targeting and inflated appraisals were the norm. RMBS and CDO prices indicate that the marginal AAA investor was unaware of pervasive mortgage fraud and ratings inflation, but these factors were strongly related to future deal performance. The supply of fraudulent credit was not uniform, but clustered in certain geographic regions and zip codes. As these dubious originators extended credit to those who could not afford the loans, the credit expansion led to house price booms and subsequent crashes in these zip codes. Overall, a consistent narrative based on substantial research indicates that conflicts of interest, misreporting, and fraud were focal features of the financial crisis.

This paper synthesizes recent advances in the theoretical and empirical literature on capital controls. We start by observing that international capital flows have both benefits and costs, but some of these are not internalized by individual actors and thus constitute externalities. The theoretical literature has identified pecuniary externalities and aggregate demand externalities that respectively contribute to financial instability and recessions. These externalities provide a natural rationale for countercyclical capital controls that lean against boom and bust cycles in international capital flows. The empirical literature has developed several measures of capital controls to capture different aspects of capital account openness. We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different measures and provide an overview of the empirical findings on the effectiveness of capital controls in addressing the externalities identified by the theory literature, that is, in reducing financial fragility and enhancing macroeconomic stability. We also discuss strategies to deal with the endogeneity of capital controls in such statistical exercises. We conclude by providing an overview of the historical and current debates on the role of capital controls in macroeconomic management and their relationship to the academic literature.

After China’s recent great success in eliminating absolute poverty, addressing relative income inequality becomes a more important issue. This survey finds that income inequality rapidly increased in the first three decades since 1978 but stabilized and slightly declined in the past decade, consistent with the well-known Kuznets hypothesis. In addition to documenting the trend and patterns over time and across groups and regions, seven sources of income inequality are systematically discussed with an effort to reconcile and extend the existing literature. Furthermore, a negative correlation is documented between income inequality and intergenerational mobility, consistent with the Great Gatsby curve observed in developed countries.

Recent literature has reconstructed estimates of wealth and income inequality for a range of preindustrial, mostly European, societies covering medieval and early modern times, occasionally reaching back to antiquity and even prehistory. These estimates have radically improved our knowledge of distributive dynamics in the past. It now seems clear that in the period circa 1300–1800, inequality of both income and wealth grew almost monotonically almost everywhere in Europe, with the exception of the century-long phase of inequality decline triggered by the Black Death of 1347–52. Regarding the causes of inequality growth, recent literature ruled out economic growth as the main one. Other possible factors include population growth (also as mediated by inheritance systems) and especially regressive fiscal institutions (also as connected to the unequal distribution of political power). The recently proposed theoretical framework of the inequality possibility frontier (IPF) lends a better understanding of the implications of the reconstructed trends. This article concludes by showing how connecting preindustrial trends to modern ones changes our perception of long-term inequality altogether.

The role of real estate during the global financial and economic crisis has prompted efforts to better incorporate housing and financial channels into macro models, improve housing models, develop macroprudential tools, and reform the financial system. This article provides an overview of major, recent contributions to the literature in relation to earlier research on what drives housing prices and how they affect economic activity. Particularly emphasized are studies, both theoretical and more strongly evidence-based, that connect housing markets with credit markets, house price expectations, financial stability, and the wider economy. The literature reveals much diversity in the international and regional behavior of house prices and the need to improve data tracking key housing supply and demand influences. Also reviewed are studies examining how monetary, macroprudential, and other policies affect house prices and access to housing. This survey is designed to help readers navigate the plethora of recent studies and understand the unsettled issues and avenues for further research. The findings should be of interest to policy makers concerned with financial stability as well as those dealing with the role of housing in the wider economy