Knowledge that Transforms

Following a recession, the aggregate labor market is slack–employment remains below normal and recruiting efforts of employers, as measured by help-wanted advertising and vacancies, are low. A model of matching friction explains the qualitative responses of the labor market to adverse shocks, but requires implausibly large shocks to account for the magnitude of observed fluctuations. The incorporation of wage stickiness vastly increases the sensitivity of the model to driving forces. I develop a new model of the way that wage stickiness affects unemployment. The stickiness arises in an economic equilibrium and satisfies the condition that no worker-employer pair has an unexploited opportunity for mutual improvement. Sticky wages neither interfere with the efficient formation of employment matches nor cause inefficient job loss. Thus the model provides an answer to the fundamental criticism previously directed at sticky-wage models of fluctuations.

This note corrects an error in an example in Meetings with Costly Participation (AER 90(4), 927-943). It characterizes the set of equilibria for the example under the assumptions in the paper, shows that in all the equilibria an interval of moderate po- sitions is devoid of participants, and provides assumptions under which the result as originally stated is correct.

We provide a unified theory of the transition in income, life expectancy, education, and population size from a nondeveloped environment to sustained growth. Individuals optimally trade off the time cost of education with its lifetime returns. Initially, low longevity implies a prohibitive cost for human capital formation for most individuals. A positive feedback loop between human capital and increasing longevity, triggered by endogenous skill-biased technological progress, eventually provides sufficient returns for widespread education. The transition is not based on scale effects and induces population growth despite unchanged fertility. A simulation illustrates that the dynamics fit historical data patterns.

Researchers perpetually complain about long decision lags. Glenn Ellison (2002a,b) confirms that delays are being longer. He suggests an evolving social norm as a possible explanation, with more demands made on authors for their work to be published. Time delays have the additional effect, however, of limiting the flow of submissions. In the absence of time delays and other significant submission costs, the best strategy is to start at the most prestigious journal and work down until the article is accepted. Better journals are unlikely to welcome this. The major submission cost is the long and unpredictable length of time spent waiting for a decision. Ellison notes that time lags are longer for the top five economics journals, at around six to eleven months longer than the rest. Despite the increasing prestige of top journals, the number of submissions remains fairly static.

Heterogeneous time preference has a profound impact on the wealth distribution and therefore on equilibrium asset prices. I identify two distinct effects on interest rates: an averaging effect due to Jensen’s inequality and a general equilibrium consumption timing effect. The averaging effect decreases and the timing effect increases real interest rates, and both effects induce an inverse term structure. More fundamentally, the model shows that asset prices need to be interpreted with caution. Evidence apparently pointing to non-standard preferences may simply be the result of heterogeneity.

This paper uses an estimated demand system that accounts for heterogeneity to calculate and compare the lost consumer surplus from a higher tax on gasoline, a tax on distance, or a subsidy for buying a newer car. We introduce a view of cost-effectiveness that compares policies instead of technologies. Each tax might induce some consumers to drive less, some to switch from two vehicles to one, and some to buy a car instead of an SUV. Our model captures these behaviors. For each rate of tax, we simulate the changes in all such choices and how the new choices affect emissions. We also calculate the equivalent variation and subtract tax revenue to get deadweight loss. Finally, we take the added deadweight loss over the additional abatement as the social marginal cost of abatement, and we plot this curve for several different tax policies.

Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources by Richard K. Green, Stephen Malpezzi and Stephen K. Mayo. Published in volume 95, issue 2, pages 334-339 of American Economic Review, May 2005

Theoretical work on experience goods sets out three empirical questions. How accurate is information at initial purchase? How rapidly do consumers learn from product experiences? And how much impact does learning have on purchase decisions? I answer these questions for the case of automobile insurance, using a panel of 18,595 consumers from one firm. My principal findings are: patterns of consumer departures following claims point to learning; consumers enter the firm overly optimistic about its quality and are generally disappointed by experience; and the impact of learning is mitigated by the slow arrival of claims and the development of lock-in.

The rapid growth in the number of foreign students enrolled in American universities has transformed the higher education system, particularly at the graduate level. Many of these newly minted doctorates remain in the United States after receiving their doctoral degrees, so that the foreign student influx can have a significant impact in the labor market for high-skill workers. Using data drawn from the Survey of Earned Doctorates and the Survey of Doctoral Recipients, the study shows that a foreign student influx into a particular doctoral field at a particular time had a significant and adverse effect on the earnings of doctorates in that field who graduated at roughly the same time. A 10 percent immigration-induced increase in the supply of doctorates lowers the wage of competing workers by about 3 percent.

We study time variation in expected excess bond returns. We run regressions of one-year excess returns on initial forward rates. We find that a single factor, a single tent-shaped linear combination of forward rates, predicts excess returns on one-to five-year maturity bonds with R 2 up to 0.44. The return-forecasting factor is countercyclical and forecasts stock returns. An important component of the return-forecasting factor is unrelated to the level, slope, and curvature movements described by most term structure models. We document that measurement errors do not affect our central results.