Knowledge that Transforms

Economists have devoted substantial attention to firms' supply of variety, but little to consumers' demand for variety. Employing the framework of home production, we trace differences in demand to differences in the opportunity costs of activities, associated with investments in human capital. Schooling alters time costs and changes the variety of activities household members choose. Time budgets from Australia, Israel, and West Germany show that higher own and spouses' incomes raise variety (suggesting positive income effects). Education increases variety independent of income and earnings; part of its impact goes beyond a correlation of educational attainment with preferences for variety.

This paper establishes the existence of a previously overlooked relationship between agglomeration and hours worked. Among nonprofessionals, hours worked decrease with the density of workers in the same occupation. Among professionals, the relationship is positive. This relationship is stronger for the young than for the middle-aged. Moreover, young professional hours worked are especially sensitive to the presence of rivals. The paper shows that these patterns are consistent with the selection of hard workers into cities and with the high productivity of agglomerated labor. The behavior of young professionals is also consistent with the presence of keen rivalry in larger markets, a kind of urban rat race.

A long-standing assumption among economists is that nursing home quality is common across Medicaid and private-pay patients within a shared facility. However, there has been only limited empirical work addressing this issue. Using a unique individual level panel of residents of nursing homes from seven states, we exploit both within-facility and within-person variation in payer source and quality to examine this issue. We also test the robustness of these results across states with different Medicaid and private-pay rate differentials. Across various identification strategies, our results are consistent with the assumption of common quality across Medicaid and private-paying patients within facilities.

This note revisits the proof of the steady-state growth theorem, first given by Uzawa in 1961.We provide a clear statement of the theorem, discuss intuition for why it holds, and present a new, elegant proof due to Schlicht (2006).

Identification of potential wage distributions by education is important to the study of the causal links between education, inequality, and uncertainty. Potential wage inequality within an educational group (that is, the variance in wages if all workers had the same education) exceeds the observed statistics because self-selected education truncates wage distributions. Decomposing potential wage inequality into heterogeneity (known to the agent making the educational choice) and uncertainty (unknown to the agent) suggests that wage uncertainty does not necessarily rise with education. It is unobserved heterogeneity, not uncertainty, that explains the observed relationship between college graduation and higher wage inequality.

Methods are described for the appropriate use of data obtained and analysed in real time to represent the output gap. The methods employ cointegrating VAR techniques to model real-time measures and realizations of output series jointly. The model is used to mitigate the impact of data revisions; to generate appropriate forecasts that can deliver economically meaningful output trends and that can take into account the end-of-sample problems encountered in measuring these trends; and to calculate probability forecasts that convey in a clear way the uncertainties associated with the gap measures. The methods are applied to data for the United States 1965q4–2004q4, and the improvements over standard methods are illustrated.

Standard estimates of the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment are subject to considerable uncertainty. We show in this paper that using multiple indicators to extract an estimated NAIRU cuts in half uncertainty as measured by variance and gives a 33% reduction in the confidence band. The inclusion of an Okun's Law relation is particularly valuable. The essential notion is the existence of a common cyclical force driving the macroeconomic variables. Model comparisons based on the use of Bayes factors favor the idea of a common cyclical component.

The secular rise in female labor force participation, highlighted in the recent macroe-conomics literature on growth and structural change, has been associated with the de-clining price and wider availability of home appliances. This paper uses a new and unique country dataset on the price of home appliances to test its impact on female labor supply. We assess the role of the price of appliances in raising participation by comparing it to the impact of fertility and other macroeconomic factors. A decrease in the relative price of appliances- the ratio of the price of appliances to the consumer price index- leads to a substantial and statistically significant increase in female labor force participation. The impact of the price of appliances is quantitatively of the same order of magnitude as that of fertility. This result is robust to the inclusion of additional controls, such as income per capita, government spending, and male and female unemployment rates. To assess causality, we test for exogeneity and use the lagged relative price of appliances and the food price index as instrumental variables, confirming that lower appliance prices lead to increased female participation.

We model merger waves as reallocation waves, and argue that mergers spread new technology in a way that is similar to that of the entry and exit of firms. We focus on two periods: 1890–1930, during which electricity and the internal combustion engine spread through the U.S. economy, and 1970–2000—the Information Age. As the model implies, reallocation did rise during both epochs. The model also implies that exits should lead mergers during a transition, but this seems to have happened more emphatically in the electrification epoch.

Although the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis is the primary framework for understanding household consumption and savings decisions, only a few studies have used clearly identifiable income changes to test the basic predictions of the model. The estimates produced using this empirical strategy have yet to lead to a consensus of beliefs since the results have both favored and rejected the model. This paper contributes to this literature by examining the consumption reaction to predictable increases in discretionary income following the final payment of a vehicle loan. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the results show that a 10% increase in discretionary income due to a loan repayment leads to a 2% to 3% increase in nondurable consumption. Additional analysis suggests that these findings may be explained by the presence of borrowing constraints.