Knowledge that Transforms

This paper examines the impact of manufacturing employment decline on the socioeconomic outcomes within and between black and white americans since 1960. The analysis shows that manufacturing decline had a negative impact on blacks in terms of their wages, employment, marriage rates, house values, poverty rates, death rates, single parenthood, teen motherhood, child poverty, and child mortality. In addition, the decline in manufacturing increased inequality within the black community for wages and other outcomes. Similar patterns are found for whites, but to a lesser degree—leading to larger gaps between whites and blacks in wages, marriage patterns, poverty, single-parenthood, and death rates.

We consider whether hospital acquisitions of physicians lead to improved clinical outcomes for medicare patients aged 65 and older. The analysis combines 2005–2012 Medicare fee-for-service and enrollment data with merger and physician affiliation information from the Levin Reports and SK&A, respectively. We determine the effect of acquisitions on several health outcomes: mortality, acute myocardial infarctions, acute circulatory conditions, ischemic heart disease, glaucoma, symptomatic diabetes complications, and asymptomatic diabetes complications. These outcomes represent the progression of hypertension and diabetes into worse health states. Our results indicate that hospital acquisitions of existing physician practices have little effect on the health outcomes we consider.

We study the impact of targeted price controls on supermarket products in Argentina. Using daily prices for controlled and noncontrolled goods, we examine the effects on inflation, product availability, entry and exit, and price dispersion. First, price controls have only a small and temporary effect on inflation that reverses soon after the controls are lifted. Second, contrary to common belief, controlled goods are consistently available for sale. Third, firms respond by introducing new varieties at higher prices. Overall, our results show that targeted price controls are just as ineffective as more traditional policies of price controls in reducing aggregate inflation.

This study assesses a new mechanism, the deposit channel, in the transmission of interest rate shock to household consumption using an administrative panel data set of financial transactions for Turkey. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in consumers' adherence to the Islamic laws that forbid earning interest and employs a standard difference-in-difference design. Following an unanticipated announcement of interest rate hike, rate-sensitive consumers significantly reduce their overall spending, and the response persists throughout the post-announcement period. The response of debt payment, disparate exposure to inflation, exchange rate, and the demographic difference can hardly fully account for the documented consumption response heterogeneity.

We study how political hierarchy shapes regional development in China, using variations driven by regime changes during the 1000–2000 period. We find that changes in the status of the provincial capital led to the rise and decline of different prefectures as measured by population and urbanization. Two other novel findings stand out: (1) the economic advantages of the provincial capitals did not persist if they lost their political status, and (2) political hierarchy shaped economic development not only through public employment but also through the development of important infrastructure, such as transportation networks. Our findings highlight the importance of politics in determining the locations of economic activities.

This paper proposes a two-step procedure in order to identify belief shocks—shocks to expectations about the current state of the economy. First, we use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to measure nowcast errors about contemporaneous output growth. Second, we extract belief shocks from nowcast errors, once by regressing them on existing measures of structural shocks and once by imposing sign restrictions on a VAR model. Using both approaches, we find that belief shocks trigger similar adjustment dynamics and a high degree of co-movement across macroeconomic variables. Belief shocks account for about onethird of short-run output fluctuations.

Overloaded electrical systems are a major source of unreliable power. Using a randomized saturation design, we estimate the impact of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) on electricity reliability and household electricity consumption in the Kyrgyz Republic. Greater saturation of CFLs within a transformer leads to fewer outages, a technological externality benefiting all households, regardless of individual adoption. Spillovers in CFL adoption further reduce electricity consumption, contributing to increased reliability within a transformer. CFLs' impacts on household electricity consumption vary according to the effects on reliability. Receiving CFLs significantly reduces electricity consumption, but increased reliability permits greater consumption of electricity services.

We use firm-level data on U.S. multinationals to show how offshoring affects domestic employment within and across firms. We introduce a new instrument for offshoring, bilateral tax treaties, which reduce the cost of offshore activities. We find substantial heterogeneity in effects. A 10% increase in affiliate employment drives a 1.3% increase in employment at the U.S. parent firm, with smaller effects at the industry and regional levels. In contrast, offshoring by vertical multinationals drives declining employment among nonmultinationals in the same industry, and firms opening new affiliates exhibit smaller domestic employment growth than those expanding existing affiliates.

I examine the source and welfare implications of differences in household consumption diversity. I document the existence of a positive correlation between household variety and expenditure to motivate a simple framework where households purchase more varieties to counteract diminishing returns to quantity but face location-specific costs of accessing variety. Estimating the model with Indian household data, I find that the increase in dietary diversity between 1983 and 2009 was mostly due to lower costs of accessing variety, which resulted in large welfare gains. Urban households also benefit from a lower cost of accessing varieties than rural households.

A substantial proportion of individuals who complete the widely used multiple price list (MPL) instrument switch back and forth between the safe and the risky choice columns, behavior that is believed to indicate low-quality decision making. We develop a conceptual framework to formally define decision-making quality, test explanations for the nature of low-quality decision making, and introduce a novel “nudge” treatment that reduced multiple switching behavior and increased decision-making quality. We find evidence in support of task-specific miscomprehension of the MPL and that non-multiple switchers and relatively high-cognitive-ability individuals are not immune to low-quality decision making.