Knowledge that Transforms

We investigate determinants of driving speed in large U.S. cities. We first estimate city-level supply functions for travel in an econometric framework where the supply and demand for travel are explicit. These estimations allow us to calculate an index of driving speed and to rank cities by driving speed. Our data suggest that a congestion tax of about 3.5 cents per kilometer yields welfare gains of about $30 billion per year, that centralized cities are slower, that cities with ring roads are faster, and that the provision of automobile travel in cities is subject to decreasing returns to scale.

This paper examines whether high-speed Internet affects students' college applications. Our analysis links the diffusion of residential broadband to the testing and application outcomes of millions of PSAT and SAT takers and reveals that students with broadband in their postal code perform better on the SAT and apply to a higher number and more expansive set of colleges. While the availability of broadband generally improved applications to college, the effects appear to be concentrated among high-SES students, suggesting that the new technology may have increased preexisting inequities.

In this paper, we empirically measure the impact of natural disasters on firm-level operating performance and examine if such impact can be mitigated by technology diversification. Using major natural disasters specified by Barrot and Sauvagnat (2015) and factory location data from the toxic release inventory (TRI) database, we first find that firms with factories located in states affected by natural disasters are much less profitable. Second, we find that firms with diversified technologies are significantly less subject to the impact of natural disasters, suggesting that technology diversity enhances firms’ sustainability.

This paper tests how a major cap-and-trade program, known as the NOx budget trading program (NBP), affected labor markets in the manufacturing sector. The cap-and-trade program dramatically decreased levels of NOx emissions and added substantial costs to regulated firms. Using a triple-differences approach, I examine how labor markets adjusted in manufacturing industries that were exposed to the program. I find that overall employment in the manufacturing sector dropped by 1.3%, with energy-intensive industries losing up to 4.8%. Employment declines are shown to have occurred primarily through decreased hiring rates rather than increased separation rates, thus mitigating the impact on incumbent workers. Young workers experienced the largest employment declines, and earnings of newly hired workers fell after the regulation began.

This paper employs a unique data set on articles, authors, and editors of the top general interest journals in economics to investigate the role of social connections in the publication process. Ties between editors and authors are identified based on their academic histories. About 43% of the articles published in these journals are authored by scholars connected to one editor at the time of the publication. Ph.D. students and faculty colleagues of an editor also improve their publication outcomes when this editor is in charge of a journal.

We investigate whether an increase in the potential earnings of men leads to an increase in marriage and a reduction in nonmarital births by exploiting the positive economic shock associated with fracking in the 2000s. A reduced-form analysis reveals that in response to local-area fracking production, which increased wages and jobs for non-college-educated men, both marital and nonmarital birth rates increase, but marriage rates do not. The pattern of results is consistent with positive income effects on births but no associated increase in marriage. We contrast our findings to the Appalachian coal boom experience of the 1970s and 1980s.

How big is the elasticity of substitution between goods from different countries—the Armington elasticity? Estimates of the macroelasticity between home and imported goods are often smaller than the microelasticity between foreign sources of imports. Using new, highly disaggregate U.S. production data matched to imports and simulated data from a Melitz-style model with nested CES preferences, we explore estimation techniques for the two elasticities. For between two-thirds and three-quarters of sample goods, there is no significant difference between the macro- and microelasticities, but for the rest, the microelasticity is significantly higher, even at the same level of disaggregation.

Here’s why. (a) The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter introduces spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process. (b) Filtered values at the end of the sample are very different from those in the middle and are also characterized by spurious dynamics. (c) A statistical formalization of the problem typically produces values for the smoothing parameter vastly at odds with common practice. (d) There is a better alternative. A regression of the variable at date t on the four most recent values as of date t - h achieves all the objectives sought by users of the HP filter with none of its drawbacks.

Next article FreeRecent RefereesPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJournal of Political Economy acknowledges the assistance of:Ran AbramitzkyDaron AcemogluRodrigo AdaoNaoki AizawaAlberto AlesinaMichelle AlexopoulosDouglas AlmondSimon AndersonAshish AroraEnghin AtalayAndrew AtkesonDavid Austen-SmithEduardo AzevedoMartha BaileySarah BairdNathaniel Baum-SnowPatrick BayerDaniel BenjaminSaurabh BhargavaSourav BhattacharyaDan BlackArthur BlouinAaron Bodoh-CreedAlessandro BonattiLeah BoustanNina BoyarchenkoEric BudishMarshall BurkeLorenzo CasaburiPierre-Andre ChiapporiDavin ChorGiancarlo CorsettiBruno CreponJanet CurrieFrancesco DecarolisMelissa DellJan De LoeckerDavid DemingJonathan DingelTaryn DinkelmanJeremiah DittmarWill DobbieDave DonaldsonUlrich DoraszelskiBenjamin EdelmanTim EisertMatt ElliottWedad ElmaghrabyYing FanErica FieldFrederico FinanAmy FinkelsteinRaymond FismanTeresa FortThomas FujiwaraPatrick GagliardiniAlberto GalassoJonah GelbachBenjamin GillenDavid GreenRaymond GuiterasNaijia GuoYingni GuoAdam GurenFatih GuvenenMarina HalacYoram HalevyRobert HallJessie HandburyRick HarbaughNikolaj HarmonGlenn HarrisonPaul HeidhuesNathaniel HendrenRichard HoldenThomas HolmesCornelia HolthausenRichard HornbeckJean-Francois HoudePatrick HummelGregor JaroschNavin KartikKei KawaiWilliam KerrOnur KestenJonathan KetchamKyungmin KimPatrick KlineRalph KoijenGeorgia KosmopoulouChris KuzawaNicola LaceteraMathias LePatrick LegrosJacob LeshnoIlse LindenlaubElliot LipnowskiGeorge LoewensteinAlexander MackayNeale MahoneyDavid Marques-IbanezAlexandre MasBhashkar MazumderMaurizio MazzoccoIgnacia MercadalStelios MichalopoulosDouglas MillerRobert MoffittEduardo MoralesStephen MorrisIsmael MourifieKathleen MullenBarry NalebuffPaulo NatenzonJ. NearyYusuf NeggersMatthew NeidellPhilip OreopoulosHarry PaarschDaniel ParavisiniParag PathakAndrew PattonGert PeersmanDiego PerezRicardo Perez-TrugliaNicola PersicoEric PlugMaria PolyakovaDevin PopeDaniel QuintNatalia RamondoGautam RaoMar ReguantDavid ReileySteven RivkinJames RobinsonAnne-Katrin RoeslerEsteban Rossi-HansbergAldo RustichiniSally SadoffRaffaella SadunMaher SaidBernard SalaniePhilipp Schmidt-DenglerBradley SetzlerJ. George ShanthikumarAllison ShertzerKelly ShueRalph SiebertSebastian SoteloGonca SoysalGiancarlo SpagnoloJörg SpenkuchFrancesco SquintaniKonrad StahlBryce SteinbergMelvin StephensAdam StoreygardJoerg StoyeBruno StruloviciRichard SweeneyCaroline ThomasMelissa ThomassonFrancesco TrebbiFrederic VermeulenJonathan VogelNico VoigtlaenderJoel WaldfogelChristopher WaltersMarianne WanamakerEbonya WashingtonBirger WernerfeltAlexander WhiteFrank WindmeijerRonald WolthoffJulian WrightDaniel Yi XuDanny YaganNoam YuchtmanJunsen ZhangEkaterina ZhuravskayaJonathan Zinman Next article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 126, Number 1February 2018 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/697266 © 2018 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.