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The Moderating Role of Competition in the Relationship between Nonfinancial Measures and Future Financial Performance*
Testing the optimality of a performance evaluation measure for a gainsharing contract*
Recent attention on labor productivity has resulted in many manufacturing concerns negotiating incentive contracts with the labor force. Such incentive contracts provide for management and the work force to share monetary benefits generated by productivity gains. These gain‐sharing contracts require a benchmark level of labor productivity from which to assess productivity gains. This paper examines gain‐sharing contracts in an agency setting, deriving conditions under which contracts using a performance evaluation measure of a ratio of total labor hours to standard direct labor hours might be optimal. These optimality conditions are characterized in terms of the fixed and variable cost components of the total labor requirement and the standard direct labor requirements. An observed gain‐sharing contract based on such a measure is then evaluated using actual production data. The generalized method of moments is employed to estimate the key production parameters, indicating that the optimality conditions are violated. The characterization of optimal gain‐sharing contracts thus clarifies the manner in which productivity must be measured if these programs are to provide the proper incentives to the work force. Résumé. L'attention récemment accordée à la productivité de la main‐d'oeuvre a donné lieu à la négociation de contrats de rémunération au rendement dans de nombreuses entreprises de fabrication. Ces contrats de rémunération au rendement prévoient un partage des bénéfices monétaires résultant des gains de productivité, entre la direction et la main‐d'oeuvre. Les contrats de participation aux bénéfices nécessitent la détermination d'un point de repère en ce qui a trait à la productivité de la main‐d'oeuvre à partir duquel on puisse évaluer les gains de productivité. Les auteurs analysent les contrats de participation aux bénéfices dans le contexte d'une relation de mandataire, en dérivant les conditions dans lesquelles le contrat prévoyant une mesure du rendement fondée sur le rapport des heures de main‐d'oeuvre totales aux heures de main‐d'oeuvre directe standard peut être optimal. Ces conditions d'optimalité sont définies sous forme d'éléments de coûts fixes et de coûts variables des besoins en heures de main‐d'oeuvre totales et en heures de main‐d'oeuvre directe standard. Les auteurs analysent un contrat de participation aux bénéfices basé sur ce genre de mesure et l'évaluent ensuite à partir des données réelles de production. Ils recourent à la méthode généralisée des moments pour estimer les principaux paramètres de production indiquant que les conditions d'optimalité sont transgressées. La définition du contrat optimal de participation aux bénéfices éclaire ainsi la manière dont la productivité doit être mesurée pour que de tels contrats offrent à la main‐d'oeuvre les stimulants appropriés.
An Empirical Investigation of an Incentive Plan that Includes Nonfinancial Performance Measures
Recent studies report an increasing use of nonfinancial measures such as product quality, customer satisfaction, and market share in performance measurement and compensation systems. A growing literature suggests that because current nonfinancial measures are better predictors of long-term financial performance than current financial measures, they help refocus managers on the long-term aspects of their actions. However, little empirical evidence is available on the relation between nonfinancial measures and financial performance, and even less is known about performance impacts of incorporating nonfinancial measures in incentive contracts. Using time-series data for 72 months from 18 hotels managed by a hospitality firm, this study provides empirical evidence on the behavior of nonfinancial measures and their impact on firm performance. The results indicate that nonfinancial measures of customer satisfaction are significantly associated with future financial performance and contain additional information not reflected in the past financial measures. Furthermore, both nonfinancial and financial performance improve following the implementation of an incentive plan that includes nonfinancial performance measures.
The public accounting industry production function
A translog function is specified to represent the relation between revenue and human resource inputs in public accounting firms. Estimation of the model using a balanced panel of annual data for 64 large CPA firms for the period 1995–1999 indicates that increasing returns to scale prevail in the public accounting industry, justifying recent merger and acquisition activities among accounting firms. Average marginal revenue product of partners increased monotonically from 1995 to 1998, decreased slightly in 1999, and was about nine times that of other professionals during 1995–1999. The public accounting industry exhibited continuing improvement in productivity over the 5 years.
A Perspective on Research in Governmental Accounting.
According to the December 1991 issue of the Survey of Current Business, expenditures of state and local governments account for more than 11 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product. Moody's 1991 Municipal Manual indicates that these govern- mental entities have an outstanding debt now approaching $800 billion, and a report by the Public Securities Association (1987) indicates that this debt grew at a compound annual rate of 12 percent from 1966 to 1986. State and local governmental activities continue to increase in magnitude, and evidently form an important part of the political and economic environment in which accounting operates. Important accountability issues distinctive to these organizations need accounting research attention. The articles by Feroz and Wilson and Deis and Giroux in this issue, which we have been invited to review, address some of these topics. The study by Feroz and Wilson can be regarded as an extension to the public sector of capital-market-based research that examines the effects of financial-accounting disclosures on security prices and returns. They hypothesize segmentation of the market for municipal obligations along national and regional lines and study the effects of differential information disclosure on borrowing costs. In the other study, Deis and Giroux utilize quality reviews that were conducted by the Texas Education Agency to evaluate and rate the audits (by public accountants) of public schools' financial reports. They test hypotheses about audit quality that were originally developed in the context of commercial firms. Both studies thus represent extensions of theories and methods used in research of private- sector accounting and auditing issues. The contributions of the two articles are discussed, and modifications that consider the unique aspects of governmental accounting are presented in sections I and II. Other possible avenues for research are discussed in section III.
Economic Sufficiency and Statistical Sufficiency in the Aggregation of Accounting Signals.
Management accountants are often required to construct measures of performance of individual managers by aggregating several accounting numbers (signals). We show that the same method of aggregation will rarely be used for evaluating the performance of different managers. Instead, the method of aggregation will vary with the specific preference functions of individual managers and the corresponding action choices induced by the owner. Such an optimal aggregate always exists but is not, in general, a sufficient statistic for the individual signals with respect to the agent's effort. We further show that, in most cases, using all the information in the sufficient statistic makes the principal strictly worse off. The analysis provides insights into a different statistical approach for evaluating nonsufficient aggregates based on the signal to noise ratio of the individual signals that are aggregated.
Predicting Earnings Using a Model Based on Cost Variability and Cost Stickiness
We evaluate the descriptive validity of the cost behavior model for profit analysis using Compustat data. For this purpose, we propose an earnings forecast model decomposing earnings into components that reflect (1) variability of costs with sales revenue and (2) stickiness in costs with sales declines. We evaluate the predictive ability of our model by benchmarking its performance in forecasting one-year-ahead returns on equity against that of two other time-series models based on line item information reported in the income statement and in the statement of cash flows. Specifically, we consider a model that disaggregates earnings into operating income and non-operating income components and another that disaggregates earnings into cash flows and accruals components. While all three models are less accurate than analysts' consensus forecasts that rely on a larger information set, we find that our model provides substantial improvement in forecast accuracy over the other two models that use only the line items in the financial statements. Finally, invoking the market efficiency assumption, we find that earnings forecast errors based on our model have greater relative information content than forecast errors based on the two alternative models based on financial statement information in explaining abnormal stock returns.