Knowledge that Transforms

Regulators of new products confront a trade-off between speeding a product to market and collecting additional product quality information. The FDA's Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) provides an opportunity to understand if regulators can use new policy to innovate around this trade-off. We find that the BTD program shortened clinical development times by 23% and did not affect the ex post safety profile of drugs with the designation. The BTD program had the greatest impact on less experienced firms and reduced clinical trial design complexity. The results suggest that targeted regulatory innovation can shorten R&D periods without compromising product quality.

Women are underrepresented in patenting. In this study, we consider differential responsiveness to rejection as a contributor to the gender gap in invention. Leveraging the prosecution histories of almost one million U.S. patent applications and the quasirandom assignment of applications to examiners, we show that women are 3.6–6.9 percentage points less likely to continue in the application process following an early-stage rejection. Conditional on applying for a patent, male-female disparities in the propensity to abandon applications account for more than half of the overall gender gap in issued patents. We provide suggestive evidence that institutional support can help reduce the attrition gap.

After growing steadily for decades, average U.S. household energy consumption began declining in the mid-2000s. Using household-level data from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey and Current Population Survey between 1990 and 2020, we decompose overall changes in per household consumption into three components: average income, cross-household income distribution, and consumption habits, which include energy efficiency. Growth of average income caused consumption to increase by 11%, and rising income inequality reduced consumption by 8%, nearly entirely offsetting the effect of income growth. Changes in habits also reduced consumption. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate an unexpected effect of rising income inequality: climate and air quality improvements valued at $9 billion in 2020 due to lower electricity consumption. The results indicate the importance of coordinating policies that address inequality and pollution.

This paper asks whether increasing public school funding can be an effective long-run crime-prevention strategy in the United States. Specifically, we examine the effect of increases in funding early in children’s lives on the likelihood that they are arrested as adults. We exploit quasi-experimental variation in public school funding, leveraging two natural experiments in Michigan and a novel administrative data set linking the universe of Michigan public school students to adult criminal justice records. The first research design exploits variation in operating expenditures due to Michigan’s 1994 school finance reform, Proposal A. The second design exploits variation in capital spending by leveraging close school district capital bond elections in a regression discontinuity framework. In both cases, we find that students exposed to additional funding during elementary school were substantially less likely to be arrested in adulthood. We show that the social benefits of increasing school funding are greater than the costs, even when considering only the crime-reducing benefits.

Previous studies of the effect of ridesharing on traffic fatalities have yielded inconsistent conclusions. We revisit this question using proprietary data from Uber measuring monthly rideshare activity at the Census tract level. We find a consistent negative effect of ridesharing on traffic fatalities, with impacts concentrated during nights and weekends. Our results imply that ridesharing has decreased U.S. traffic fatalities by 5.2% in areas where it operates. The annual life-saving benefits are $6.8 billion. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that these benefits are of similar magnitude to producer surplus captured by Uber shareholders or consumer surplus captured by Uber riders.

We propose a quantitative spatial model featuring heterogeneous worker groups and their travel to consume nontradable goods and services. We consider the opening of the Downtown Line in Singapore, which connected regions where high-income households have residential amenities to where nontraded sectors are productive. Leveraging transit farecard data, we show that high-income workers saw large welfare gains but low-income workers gained little. Everyone enjoyed improved access to consumption opportunities, but low-income jobs in nontradables moved to less attractive workplaces. Abstracting from consumption travel understates the disparate impact across worker groups threefold.

We show that the demand shocks associated with the U.S. Civil War and World War I led to substantial increases in prosthetic device patenting (relative to patenting in other medical and mechanical technology classes). Through analyses of patent texts, we find that the Civil War led inventors to focus on production process improvements, while World War I did not. Further, we find that inventors emphasized dimensions of product quality that aligned with differences in buyers’ preferences across wars. Alongside evidence from the historical record, these findings imply that procurement environments can significantly shape the scientific problems with which inventors engage.

This paper examines the effect of expanding transportation networks on spatial industrial growth across the United States from 1953 to 2016. I use a new methodological approach that applies network theory combined with a historic military map to address the two forms of endogeneity present in expanding transportation networks: route placement and construction timing. I find that Interstate counties experienced significant growth in employment and the number of establishments relative to non-Interstate counties. Growth rates are highest within two decades of receiving an Interstate. Results also reveal positive spillovers occurred in later decades among adjacent counties along the metropolitan periphery.

Does police oversight increase crime? Studies examining this relationship often rely on major scandals as shocks, but the simultaneous effect of public outrage on officer behavior and crime contaminates the results. Using a framework distinguishing oversight and outrage, we identify two events that increased oversight but elicited no public reaction. We find that despite a subsequent decline in reported misconduct, these oversight increases likely did not significantly impact crime or officer activity, suggesting oversight can reduce misconduct without increasing crime. However, a major policing scandal likely increased crime but did not increase arrests and decreased stops and uses of force.

This article investigates the determinants of international technology licensing using data for 50 countries during 1996–2012. A multicountry model of innovation yields a dynamic structural gravity equation for royalty payments as a function of fundamentals, including imperfect intellectual property protection and differences in corporate taxation. The gravity equation is estimated with nonlinear methods. My model’s fundamentals account for about 60% of the variation in royalty payments. A quantitative analysis sheds light on the impact of global taxation reforms on international technology licensing and innovation. The findings highlight the role of taxation in shaping cross-border technology flows and the consequences of profit-shifting.