Knowledge that Transforms

This paper examines the effect of financial literacy on mortgage stress. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we find that borrowers with high levels of financial literacy are 60.3 percent less likely to suffer from mortgage stress than borrowers with low levels of financial literacy after controlling for observables. Our estimated results are robust to potential sample selection bias and functional mis-specification. In addition, we also find that the effect of financial literacy varies across borrowers of different ages. Further analysis reveals strong cross effects of financial literacy and quantitative reasoning on mortgage stress.

The number of short campaigns by hedge funds has dramatically increased over the last two decades. Nearly 80% of campaigns are undertaken by activist hedge funds, particularly those that employ hostile tactics in their long campaigns. Short campaigns are associated with negative abnormal returns of –7%, with aggregate valuation effects similar in magnitude to the gains from long activism campaigns. In contrast to long campaigns, public communication is a critical component of short campaigns. We do not find evidence that such communication is manipulative. Overall, our analysis highlights the importance of short campaigns for understanding the economic impact of activist hedge funds.

Pay-as-you-go contracts reduce minimum purchase requirements, which may increase market participation. This paper randomizes the introduction and price(s) of a novel pay-as-you-go contract to the California auto insurance market, where 17% of drivers are uninsured. The pay-as-you-go contract increases take-up by 10.8 p.p. (89%) and days with coverage by 4.6 days over the 3-month experiment (27%). Demand is relatively inelastic, and pay-as-you-go increases insurance coverage in part by relaxing liquidity requirements: most drivers’ purchasing behavior is consistent with a cost of credit in excess of payday lending rates, and 19% of drivers have a purchase rejected for insufficient funds.

We study consensus in a protocol capturing in a simplified manner the major features of the majority of Proof of Stake blockchains. A committee is formed; one member proposes a block; and the others can check its validity and vote for it. Blocks with a majority of votes are produced. When an invalid block is produced, the stakes of the members who voted for it are “slashed.” Profit-maximizing members interact with adversaries seeking to disrupt consensus. When slashing is limited, free-riding and moral-hazard lead to invalid blocks in equilibrium. We propose a protocol modification producing only valid blocks in equilibrium.

Does mental accounting matter for total consumption expenditures? We exploit a unique setting in which individuals exogenously receive a new payment card, without requesting one. Using random variation in the time of receipt, we show that individuals temporarily increase total consumption expenditure by making purchases with the new card without reducing spending on the others. We do not observe a corresponding increase in indebtedness. Total consumption expenditure rises even for the least liquidity-constrained individuals. The evidence is consistent with consumers treating methods of payment as nonfungible budget categories, as suggested by models of mental accounting and narrow bracketing.

We analyze how interdependencies in financial networks can lead to self-fulfilling insolvencies and multiple possible equilibrium outcomes. Multiplicity arises if a certain type of dependency cycle exists in the network. We show that finding the cheapest bailout policy that prevents self-fulfilling insolvencies is computationally hard, but that the optimal policy has intuitive features in some typical network structures. Leveraging indirect benefits ensures systemic solvency at a cost that never exceeds half of the overall shortfall. In core-periphery networks, it is optimal to bail out peripheral banks first as opposed to core banks.

This paper investigates the psychological effects from stock market returns. Using an FBI database of over 55 million daily reported crime incidents across the United States, crime is proposed as a measure of psychological well-being. The evidence suggests that stock returns affect the well-being of not only investors but also noninvestors. Specifically, a contemporaneous negative (positive) relationship between daily stock market returns and violent crime rates is found for investors (noninvestors). A similar relationship is also found between local earnings surprises and violent crime. The contrasting relationships for investors and noninvestors suggests that relative wealth may influence well-being.