Knowledge that Transforms

Do progressive marginal income tax rates discourage self-employment? We assume risk neutrality to construct an implicit surtax on stochastic income relative to steady income, arising from a convex tax schedule. It is computed as part of a structural probit model with earnings equations and a tax simulator. The tax convexity variable and the net-of-tax income difference between self- and paid employment have the predicted signs and high levels of statistical significance for the probability of self-employment. A simulated flat tax reform suggests the tax effects are small.

This paper explores the effects of consumption-tax and fuel-tax adjustments in the Chinese automobile industry. Applying the model and simulation method of Berry, Levinson, and Pakes (1995), we conduct a comparative static analysis of equilibrium prices and sales, fuel consumption, and social welfare before and after tax adjustments. For the first time, we compare the progressivity of both taxes. Our empirical findings suggest that the fuel tax is effective in decreasing fuel consumption at the expense of social welfare, while the consumption tax does not significantly affect either fuel consumption or social welfare.

Though common stocks are one of the most important assets in an economy, little is known about their demand curves. I estimate demand curves for 144 NYSE stocks using a unique data set of all orders, including off-equilibrium orders, during three months in 1990 and 1991. Connecting asset pricing with industrial organization, I find that stocks of firms in less competitive industries are more elastic because they have closer substitutes than stocks in more competitive industries. Tests that exploit the 1991 Gulf War shock and S&P 500 Index additions confirm these results.

This note proposes a new decomposition of average treatment effects on nonnegative outcomes. It represents the total effect as a population-weighted sum of the effects for two groups: those induced to participate by the treatment and those participating regardless of it. The usual decomposition into extensive and intensive margins used in the literature is generally incompatible with such a causal interpretation. The difference between decompositions can be substantial and yield diametrically opposed results.

Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) showed the importance of multilateral resistance general equilibrium effects in estimating the response of trade flows to trade costs. We integrate this into Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein's (2008) extension of Anderson and van Wincoop's framework, which allows for firm heterogeneity, in order to quantify the different margins of adjustment. For bilateral trade cost changes, the general equilibrium effects are small. Surprisingly, most country pairs reduce their trade after a multilateral fall in trade costs. The global trade response to lower costs is positive, amplified by firm entry, but significantly dampened by multilateral resistance.

This paper presents a novel stylized fact and analyzes its contribution to the skill bias of technical change in U.S. manufacturing. The share of skilled labor embedded in intermediate inputs correlates strongly with the skill share employed in final production. This finding points towards an intersectoral technology-skill complementarity (ITSC). Together with input-output linkages, the observed complementarity delivers a multiplier that reinforces skill demand along the production chain. Reduced-form estimates suggest that the effect is quantitatively important, explaining about as much skill upgrading as outsourcing. Empirical evidence suggests that one channel through which this complementarity works is product innovation. I also analyze the importance of different drivers of skill upgrading over time. While foreign outsourcing and IT capital is associated with skill demand particularly strongly from the 1980s onwards (a period of rapidly increasing skill premia), R&D contributed stably throughout the period 1958-2005. The same is true for ITSC, which augmented within-sector skill bias in a stable fashion throughout the last 5 decades.

Understanding when and how individuals think about real-life problems is a central question in economics. This paper studies the role of inertia (inattention), state dependence, and learning. The empirical setting is a tariff experiment, when optional measured tariffs for local telephone calls were introduced unanticipatedly. We find that consumers tend to align their choices of tariff and telephone use levels correctly. Despite low potential savings, mistakes are not permanent, as individuals actively engage in tariff switching in order to reduce the monthly cost of telephone service. Ignoring unobservable heterogeneity and the endogeneity of past choices would have reversed these results.

There is much interest in ambiguity-averse behavior under uncertainty, and many theories have been advanced to explain this. Empirical analyses of choices involving ambiguous options have typically used a representative agent model. We address the question of whether representative agent models are accurate approximations of reality or whether there is substantial heterogeneity in ambiguity preferences. In contrast to the representative agent model, we find that the vast majority of participants are not significantly ambiguity averse and that a significant proportion of participants are consistent with expected utility theory. This finding has important implications for the application of behavioral economics.

This paper provides a method to infer the presence of treatment spillovers within markets where a fraction of agents is treated. We model individual outcomes as functions of the assigned treatment status and the distribution of assigned treatments in a market. We develop a two-step identification and estimation method, focusing first on the treatment distribution among individuals within markets and then on the treatment distribution across markets. We apply our approach to training programs for unemployed individuals in France using rich administrative data. Our results provide evidence of interactions within local labor markets as potential individual outcomes vary with the proportion of treated individuals.

This paper examines the effect of waterborne lead exposure on infant mortality in American cities over the period 1900 to 1920. Variation across cities in water acidity and the types of service pipes, which together determined the extent of lead exposure, identifies the effects of lead on infant mortality. In 1900, a decline in exposure equivalent to an increase in pH from 6.675 (25th percentile) to 7.3 (50th percentile) in cities with lead-only pipes would have been associated with a decrease in infant mortality of 7% to 33%, or at least twelve fewer infant deaths per 1,000 live births.