To make high-quality research more accessible and easier to explore.

Fields:

Peak-Bust rental spreads

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 143(1), 504-526
Landlords appear to use stale information when setting rents. Among over 43,000 California rental houses in 2018–2019, those last purchased during 2005–2007 (the peak) rent for 2–3% more than those purchased during 2008–2010 (bust). Neither house nor landlord characteristics explain this “peak-bust rental spread.” To clarify the mechanism, we test cross-sectional predictions from a simple theory of rent-setting. We find empirical support for both reference dependence and distorted beliefs. In the first, monthly payments establish (recurring) reference points, against which gains or losses are measured. In the second, past sales prices distort landlords’ current estimates of house values/rents.

Reference Points Spillovers: Micro-Level Evidence from Real Estate

Review of Financial Studies 2023 36(11), 4636-4676
Homeowners who originally bought when marketwide price levels were high (low) fetch high (low) sales prices and rents, even decades later. We study the propagation of reference-dependence to neighboring listings. The “spillover” reference point effect is about one-half as large as the “own” reference point effect. Neither house quality nor location appears capable of explaining the result. Using a simple model to provide empirical predictions, we find support for a competition-based mechanism. We quantify the aggregate effect of own and spillover reference point effects on aggregate prices and/or rents at the ZIP code level.

The timing of pay

Journal of Financial Economics 2013 109(2), 373-397
There exists large and persistent variation in not only how, but when employees are paid, a fact unexplained by existing theory. This paper develops a simple model of optimal pay timing for firms. When workers have self-control problems, they under-save and experience volatile consumption between paychecks. Thus, pay whose delivery matches the timing of workers' consumption needs will reduce wage costs. The model also explains why pay timing should be regulated (as it is in practice): although the worker benefits from a timing profile that smoothes her consumption, her lack of self-control induces her to attempt to undo the arrangement, either by renegotiating with her employer or by taking out payday loans. Regulation of pay timing and consumer borrowing is required to counter these efforts, helping the worker help herself.

Is a Higher Calling Enough? Incentive Compensation in the Church

Journal of Labor Economics 2010 28(3), 509-539
We study the compensation and productivity of more than 2,000 Methodist ministers in a 43‐year panel data set. The church appears to use pay‐for‐performance incentives for its clergy, as their compensation follows a sharing rule by which pastors receive approximately 3% of the incremental revenue from membership increases. Ministers receive the strongest rewards for attracting new parishioners who switch from other congregations within their denomination. Monetary incentives are weaker in settings where ministers have less control over their measured performance.

The cost and timing of financial distress

Journal of Financial Economics 2012 105(1), 62-81
Assessments of the trade-off theory have typically compared the present value of tax benefits to the present value of bankruptcy costs. We verify that this comparison overwhelmingly favors tax benefits, suggesting that firms are under-leveraged. However, when we allow firms to experience even modest (e.g., 1–2% annualized) financial distress costs prior to bankruptcy, the cumulative present value of such costs can easily offset the tax benefits.

The Geography of Value Creation

Review of Financial Studies 2022 35(9), 4201-4248
Over the last 20 years, the stock market indicates that value creation has become heavily concentrated in a few headquarter cities. At the same time, firms in value-creating cities have experienced declines in their profitability, because of large increases in wages and rents. Our findings thus highlight the difference between flow-based (e.g., operating profits) and stock-based (e.g., securities prices) indicators of local productivity. Conventional proxies for a city’s appeal to high value-added workers, such as education rates and weather, are positively related to stock market valuations, but negatively related to near-term operating performance.

Geographic Lead-Lag Effects

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(10), 4721-4770
We document lead-lag effects on returns between coheadquartered firms in different sectors. Geographic lead-lags yield risk-adjusted returns of 5%–6% annually, half that observed for industry lead-lag effects. Whereas industry lead-lag effects are strongest among small, thinly traded stocks with low analyst coverage, geographic lead-lags are unrelated to these proxies for investor scrutiny. We propose an explanation linked to the structure of the investment analyst business, which is organized by sector, not by geographic region. Our findings suggest that in lead-lag relationships, analysts common to both leading and lagging firms are important, regardless of the number of analysts covering each individually.

Journalists and the Stock Market

Review of Financial Studies 2012 25(3), 639-679
We use exogenous scheduling of Wall Street Journal columnists to identify a causal relation between financial reporting and stock market performance. To measure the media's unconditional effect, we add columnist fixed effects to a daily regression of excess Dow Jones Industrial Average returns. Relative to standard control variables, these fixed effects increase the R-super-2 by about 35%, indicating each columnist's average persistent "bullishness" or "bearishness." To measure the media's conditional effect, we interact columnist fixed effects with lagged returns. This increases explanatory power by yet another one-third, and identifies amplification or attenuation of prevailing sentiment as a tool used by financial journalists. The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]., Oxford University Press.

The Causal Impact of Media in Financial Markets

Journal of Finance 2011 66(1), 67-97
Disentangling the causal impact of media reporting from the impact of the events being reported is challenging. We solve this problem by comparing the behaviors of investors with access to different media coverage of the same information event. We use zip codes to identify 19 mutually exclusive trading regions corresponding with large U.S. cities. For all earnings announcements of S&P 500 Index firms, we find that local media coverage strongly predicts local trading, after controlling for earnings, investor, and newspaper characteristics. Moreover, local trading is strongly related to the timing of local reporting, a particular challenge to nonmedia explanations.

Networks and productivity: Causal evidence from editor rotations

Journal of Financial Economics 2014 111(1), 251-270
Using detailed publication and citation data for over 50,000 articles from 30 major economics and finance journals, we investigate whether network proximity to an editor influences research productivity. During an editor's tenure, his current university colleagues publish about 100% more papers in the editor's journal, compared to years when he is not editor. In contrast to editorial nepotism, such “inside” articles have significantly higher ex post citation counts, even when same-journal and self-cites are excluded. Our results thus suggest that despite potential conflicts of interest faced by editors, personal associations are used to improve selection decisions.