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Pay-performance sensitivity and firm size: Insights from the mutual fund industry

Journal of Corporate Finance 2010 16(4), 400-412
I examine the ex ante decision to make an agent's pay-performance sensitivity an inverse function of organization size. I focus on mutual funds and their decision to use compensation contracts that reduce the advisor's marginal compensation as the fund grows (a declining-rate contract) over the dominant contract type, where marginal compensation is unrelated to fund size (a single-rate contract). I find evidence consistent with the view that declining-rate contracts are a mechanism to keep marginal compensation in line with the advisor's declining marginal product. Specifically, I find that funds with greater exposure to diseconomies of scale are more likely to use a declining-rate contract and to specify a greater amount of compensation decline in their contracts. Consistent with optimal contracting, I find no evidence of a performance difference between funds with declining-rate contracts and funds with single-rate contracts.

Global Interest Rates, Currency Returns, and the Real Value of the Dollar

American Economic Review 2010 100(2), 562-567
The real value of the US dollar has fluctuated widely during the global financial crisis and its aftermath. Beginning in early 2008 through early 2009, the dollar strengthened against most currencies but weakened considerably in the intervening months. We propose a decomposi tion of the forces driving the real exchange rate into a long run real interest rate component and a residual risk premium component. If real interest rates in the United States rise rela tive to its partners, the value of the dollar should strengthen. Likewise, if the level risk premium on foreign interest-bearing assets rises, the dol lar should also strengthen. We find that little of the recent movements in the dollar are directly attributable to the real interest component, sug gesting that most of the movements are due to the residual risk premium component. There is a large and diverse literature that affords a role to real interest differentials and to risk premiums in determining the real value of a currency. Our approach is almost purely definitional. The only assumptions we rely on are those of stationarity?of the real exchange rate and the US-foreign real interest differen tial. Specifically, let qt denote the log of the real exchange rate, defined as the foreign con sumer price level (converted into dollar terms

The impact of bond rating changes on corporate bond prices: New evidence from the over-the-counter market

Journal of Banking & Finance 2010 34(11), 2822-2836
I study the information content of bond ratings changes using daily corporate bond data from TRACE. Abnormal bond returns over a two-day event window that includes the downgrade (upgrade) are negative (positive) and statistically significant, although the reaction to upgrades is economically small. Monthly abnormal bond returns around downgrades and upgrades are statistically significant but overstate the magnitude of the reaction relative to two-day abnormal returns. Unlike the bond market, the stock market reaction to upgrades is statistically insignificant. Evidence suggests that the differing inferences on the effect of upgrades in the two markets can be attributed to wealth transfer effects rather than relative market inefficiencies. In the cross-section, the bond market response is stronger for rating changes that appear more surprising, rating changes of lower rated firms, and upgrades that move the firm from speculative grade to investment grade.

Antidumping Investigations and the Pass-Through of Antidumping Duties and Exchange Rates: Comment

American Economic Review 2010 100(3), 1280-1282
Blonigen and Haynes (2002) calculated that pass-through of antidumping duty estimates to U.S. pricing of 200% would be required to eliminate potential antidumping duties. However, this calculation was based on an error in interpretation of U.S. antidumping practice, that antidumping duties themselves are subtracted in an antidumping calculation. In fact there is no such subtraction, and a pass-through of 100% theoretically suffices to eliminate potential antidumping duties

Long-term debt and overinvestment agency problem

Journal of Banking & Finance 2010 34(2), 324-335
We investigate the role of long-term debt in influencing overinvestments by analyzing the pattern of abnormal investments around a new debt offering by unlevered firms. Before being levered when the disciplining role of debt is missing, firms retain excessive amounts of cash. The introduction of debt leads to a dramatic decline in cash ratios and the relation is stronger for firms classified as having poor investment opportunities. For the sub-sample of firms that overinvest in real assets, issuing debt leads to a reduction in abnormal capital expenditures. The decline in overinvestments is explained by debt service obligations that reduce discretionary funds under managerial control. Further, the reduction in overinvestments has a positive impact on equity value. These conclusions hold in other settings where there is a dramatic change in firms’ capital structures providing strong support for the hypothesis that debt reduces overinvestments.

Identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets: Lessons from the founding of the fed☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2010 98(1), 40-53
We use the founding of the Federal Reserve to identify the effects of a lender of last resort. We examine stock return and interest rate volatility during September and October, when markets were vulnerable because of financial stringency from the harvest. Stock volatility fell by 40% and interest rate volatility by more than 70% following the monetary regime change. The drop is insignificant if major panic years are omitted from the analysis, however. Because business cycle downturns occurred in the same year as financial crises, our results suggest that the existence of the Federal Reserve reduced liquidity risk.

Auditor Liability and Client Acceptance Decisions

The Accounting Review 2010 85(1), 261-285
The accounting profession has raised concerns that excessive liability exposure renders audit firms unwilling to provide audit services to risky clients, limiting the prospective clients' ability to raise external capital. We address this concern in a model in which the auditor evaluates the riskiness of the client before accepting the client engagement. We consider a setting in which a shift to stricter legal liability regimes not only increases the expected damage payments from the auditor to investors in case of audit failure, but also increases litigation frictions such as attorneys' fees. The main finding is that the relationship between the strictness of the legal regime and the probability of client rejection is U-shaped. Our model suggests that in environments with moderate legal liability regimes, the client rejection rate is lower than in environments with relatively strong or relatively weak legal regimes.

Expected Mispricing: The Joint Influence of Accounting Transparency and Investor Base

Journal of Accounting Research 2010 48(2), 343-381
We examine how accounting transparency and investor base jointly affect financial analysts' expectations of mispricing (i.e., expectations of stock price deviations from fundamental value). Within a range of transparency, these two factors interactively amplify analysts' expectations of mispricing—analysts expect a larger positive deviation when a firm's disclosures more transparently reveal income‐increasing earnings management and the firm's most important investors are described as transient institutional investors with a shorter‐term horizon (low concentration in holdings, high portfolio turnover, and frequent momentum trading) rather than dedicated institutional investors with a longer‐term horizon (high concentration in holdings, low portfolio turnover, and little momentum trading). Results are consistent with analysts anticipating that transient institutional investors are more likely than dedicated institutional investors to adjust their trading strategies for near‐term factors affecting stock mispricings. Our theory and findings extend the accounting disclosure literature by identifying a boundary condition to the common supposition that disclosure transparency necessarily mitigates expected mispricing, and by providing evidence that analysts' pricing judgments are influenced by their anticipation of different investors' reactions to firm disclosures.