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Earnings Quality Based on Corporate Investment Decisions

Journal of Accounting Research 2011 49(3), 721-752
In this paper, I examine a new approach for measuring earnings quality, defined as the closeness of reported earnings to “permanent earnings,” based on firm decisions with regard to capital and labor investments. Specifically, I measure earnings quality as the contemporaneous association between changes in the levels of capital and labor investment and the change in reported earnings. This approach follows the reasoning that (1) firms make investment decisions based on the net present value (NPV) of investment projects and (2) reported earnings with higher quality should more closely associate with real investment decisions. I find that measures of earnings quality based on managerial labor and capital decisions correlate positively with earnings persistence and have incremental explanatory power relative to earnings-quality measures used in the accounting literature. Furthermore, investment-based earnings-quality measures are less informative when managers tend to overinvest.

Annual report readability, current earnings, and earnings persistence

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2008 45(2-3), 221-247
This paper examines the relation between annual report readability and firm performance and earnings persistence. I measure the readability of public company annual reports using the Fog index from the computational linguistics literature and the length of the document. I find that: (1) the annual reports of firms with lower earnings are harder to read (i.e., they have a higher Fog index and are longer); and (2) firms with annual reports that are easier to read have more persistent positive earnings.

The Information Content of Forward‐Looking Statements in Corporate Filings—A Naïve Bayesian Machine Learning Approach

Journal of Accounting Research 2010 48(5), 1049-1102
This paper examines the information content of the forward‐looking statements (FLS) in the Management Discussion and Analysis section (MD&A) of 10‐K and 10‐Q filings using a Naïve Bayesian machine learning algorithm. I find that firms with better current performance, lower accruals, smaller size, lower market‐to‐book ratio, less return volatility, lower MD&A Fog index, and longer history tend to have more positive FLSs. The average tone of the FLS is positively associated with future earnings even after controlling for other determinants of future performance. The results also show that, despite increased regulations aimed at strengthening MD&A disclosures, there is no systematic change in the information content of MD&As over time. In addition, the tone in MD&As seems to mitigate the mispricing of accruals. When managers “warn” about the future performance implications of accruals (i.e., the MD&A tone is positive (negative) when accruals are negative (positive)), accruals are not associated with future returns. The tone measures based on three commonly used dictionaries (Diction, General Inquirer, and the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count) do not positively predict future performance. This result suggests that these dictionaries might not work well for analyzing corporate filings.

Corporate governance when founders are directors

Journal of Financial Economics 2011 102(2), 454-469
We examine chief executive officer (CEO) compensation, CEO retention policies, and mergers and acquisition (M&A) decisions in firms in which founders serve as a director with a nonfounder CEO (founder-director firms). We find that founder-director firms offer a different mix of incentives to their CEOs than other firms. Pay-for-performance sensitivity for nonfounder CEOs in founder-director firms is higher and the level of pay is lower than that of other CEOs. CEO turnover sensitivity to firm performance is also significantly higher in founder-director firms compared with nonfounder firms. Overall, the evidence suggests that boards with founder-directors provide more high-powered incentives in the form of pay and retention policies than the average US board. Stock returns around M&A announcements and board attendance are also higher in founder-director firms compared with nonfounder firms.

Family entrenchment and internal control: evidence from S&P 1500 firms

Review of Accounting Studies 2020 25(1), 246-278
\We examine whether family owners exploit internal control weaknesses for entrenchment purposes and whether the public disclosure requirement under SOX 404 helps alleviate this entrenchment. We find supportive evidence for both questions. In the initial years of SOX 404 implementation (2004 and 2005), ineffective internal control in family CEO firms is more conducive to entrenchment – measured by the occurrence of misstatements, frauds, and related party transactions – than ineffective internal control in nonfamily firms is. With the public disclosure requirement of SOX 404 in place, family CEO firms are more likely to remediate internal control weaknesses, and the resulting improvement in internal control in family CEO firms has significantly reduced family entrenchment. Our findings provide new evidence on the dynamics of family entrenchment in the U.S. and shed light on a key benefit of public disclosure of internal control quality.

Measuring Operating Leverage

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2022 12(1), 112-154
We examine a simple measure of operating leverage: the ratio of fixed costs (measured by depreciation and amortization plus selling, general, and administrative expenses) to the market (or book) value of assets. We find that this measure of operating leverage positively predicts returns. This operating leverage measure is not explained by common factors and performs better than the traditional measures of operating leverage. Furthermore, an exploratory two-factor model with the operating leverage factor works at least as well as, but does not subsume, the Fama and French five-factor model.

Internal control and management guidance

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2009 48(2-3), 190-209
We examine the relation between internal control quality and the accuracy of management guidance. Consistent with managers in firms with ineffective internal controls relying on erroneous internal management reports when forming guidance, we document less accurate guidance among firms reporting ineffective internal controls. This relation extends to a change analysis, and the impact of ineffective internal controls on forecast accuracy is three times larger when the weakness relates to revenues or cost of goods sold—inputs particularly relevant to forecasting earnings. We conclude that internal control quality has an economically significant effect on internal management reports and thus decisions based on these figures.

A Measure of Competition Based on 10‐K Filings

Journal of Accounting Research 2013 51(2), 399-436
In this paper we develop a measure of competition based on management's disclosures in their 10‐K filing and find that firms’ rates of diminishing marginal returns on new and existing investment vary significantly with our measure. We show that these firm‐level disclosures are related to existing industry‐level measures of disclosure (e.g., Herfindahl index), but capture something distinctly new. In particular, we show that the measure has both across‐industry variation and within‐industry variation, and each is related to the firm's future rates of diminishing marginal returns. As such, our measure is a useful complement to existing measures of competition. We present a battery of specification tests designed to explore the boundaries of our measure and how it varies with the definition of industry and the presence of other measures of competition.

Consumer defaults and social capital

Journal of Financial Stability 2021 53, 100821
Using account level data from a credit bureau, we study the role that social capital plays in consumer default decisions. We find that borrowers in communities with greater social capital are significantly less likely to default on loans, even after adjusting for different levels of income and other characteristics such as credit scores. The results are strongest for potentially strategic defaults on mortgages; a one standard deviation increase in social capital reduces such defaults by 12.4 %. These results can be generalized to any mortgage default. Our results also indicate that the effect of social capital is most prominent among more creditworthy borrowers, suggesting that when given a choice, the social cost of defaulting is an important factor affecting default decisions. We find a similar impact of social capital on consumer defaults in other datasets with more detailed information on borrowers as well. Our results are robust to modeling and methodology choices, as well as controlling for other drivers of default such as wealth, income and amenities from homeownership. Our results suggest that increasing social capital via measures to build community cohesion such as promotion of owner-occupied home ownership may be one avenue to deter consumer default.

Knowledge, compensation, and firm value: An empirical analysis of firm communication

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2014 58(1), 96-116
Knowledge is central to managing an organization, but its presence in employees is difficult to measure directly. We hypothesize that external communication patterns reveal the location of knowledge within the management team. Using a large database of firm conference call transcripts, we find that CEOs speak less in settings where they are likely to be relatively less knowledgeable. CEOs who speak more are also paid more, and firms whose CEO pay is not commensurate with CEO speaking have a lower industry-adjusted Tobin׳s Q. Communication thus appears to reveal knowledge.