Most of China's fertility decline predates the famous One Child Policy — and instead occurred under its predecessor, the Wan Xi Shao, or Later, Longer, Fewer (LLF) campaign. Studying LLF's contribution to fertility and sex selection behavior, we find that LLF i) reduced China's total fertility rate by 0.95 births per woman (explaining 30.6% of its fertility decline), ii) doubled the use of male-biased fertility stopping rules, and iii) promoted postnatal selection (implying 180,000 previously unrecognized missing girls, or 19% of the total during our study period). Considering Chinese population policy to be extreme in global experience, our paper demonstrates the limits of population policy — and its potential human costs.

We study how agents respond to performance incentives according to key personality traits (conscientiousness and neuroticism) through a field experiment offering financial incentives for improving maternal and neonatal health outcomes to rural Indian doctors. More conscientious providers performed better--but improved less--under performance incentives. The effect of the performance incentives was also smaller for providers with higher levels of neuroticism. Our results contribute to a growing body of empirical research on heterogeneous responses to incentives and have implications for worker selection.

We analyze data from a survey we administered during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the relationship between people’s subjective beliefs about risks and their private protective behaviors. On average, people substantially overestimate the absolute level of risk associated with economic activity, but have directionally correct signals about their relative risk based on their demographic characteristics. Subjective risk beliefs are predictive of changes in economic activities independent of government policies. Government mandates restricting economic behavior, in turn, attenuate the relationship between subjective risk beliefs and protective behaviors.