We describe the dimensions along which bank technologies differ from fintech competitors and construct a novel measure of a bank’s technology based upon its overlap with fintech firms in terms of granular product installation data. A one standard deviation increase in our financial technology measure is associated with an 8.3 percentage point increase in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans in 2020Q2. We show that smaller banks benefited more from marginal technology gains, that technology facilitated out-of-area lending, and that technology complemented small banks’ branch-based in-area lending. In a difference-in-differences analysis, we show an outsized increase in small business lending growth in 2020 for high tech small banks relative to their peers.

Guidance is an important and long-studied topic in the accounting literature. Call, Hribar, Skinner, and Volant (this issue) survey managers who provide guidance and those that do not to generate insights on the costs and benefits of providing guidance. For managers who do provide guidance, perceptions regarding guidance characteristics are elicited. Firm responses are connected to archival data sources, enabling cross-sectional analysis of survey responses and facilitating comparison of self-reported guidance with common guidance proxies in the archival literature. I discuss key insights from the survey, considering the limitations inherent in the survey method. I also clarify what is meant by the term guidance, how it differs from other forward-looking information and how researchers operationalize the guidance construct. I conclude by offering six research questions for future consideration based on the survey evidence.

This paper finds the first evidence of time variation in the relationship between inflation expectations and the price of cryptocurrency futures. Daily data on the futures markets of Bitcoin – starting in December 2017 – and Ethereum – available since February 2021 – reveal responses to inflation expectations that are consistently positive across both measures in a full sample encompassing 2022. These results hold for a sample that precedes the Luna crash in May 13, 2022. However, the response turns negative in the period between the failures of the Luna and FTX crypto exchanges. We find cryptocurrency futures provide an effective hedge against inflation expectations and may provide a hedge against idiosyncratic market risk if the ensuing uncertainty is embraced by traders leading them to search-for-yield behavior. Risk that is more systemic – and not properly digested by financial markets – may lead futures contract holders to exit their positions ahead of expiration, leading to a bid down of futures prices and an erosion of their hedging ability. This may have contributed to the turbulence in cryptocurrencies experienced during the latter part of 2022.

This paper obtains comparable estimates of the effect of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on labor supply throughout the unemployment spell and over the business cycle using a regression kink design and 20 years of administrative data from California. For a given unemployment duration, the behavioral effect of UI benefit levels on labor supply does not vary with the business cycle from 2002 to 2019. However, due to increased coverage from extensions in benefit durations, the duration elasticity of UI benefits rises during recessions. The behavioral effect during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic is substantially lower at all unemployment durations.

Based on an asset demand system, we develop a framework to quantify the impact of market trends and changes in regulation on asset prices, price informativeness, and the wealth distribution. Our leading applications are the transition from active to passive investment management and climate-induced shifts in asset demand. The transition from active to passive investment management had a large impact on equity prices but a small impact on price informativeness because capital did not flow from more to less informed investors on average. This finding is based on a new measure of investor-level informativeness that identifies which investors are more informed about future profitability. Climate-induced shifts in asset demand have a potentially large impact on equity prices and the wealth distribution, implying capital gains for passive investment advisors, pension funds, insurance companies, and private banking and capital losses for active investment advisors and hedge funds.

This paper investigates the effects of a comprehensive insolvency regulation reform in Colombia, focusing on strengthening secured creditor rights, expanding the collateral menu, and establishing a national collateral registry. Leveraging a difference-in-difference design, the study examines the impact on firms with varying levels of movable assets. The reform significantly increased debt usage for firms with high movable assets, indicating a positive effect on financing. The national collateral registry played a pivotal role, benefiting firms in less financially developed regions. Furthermore, the analysis reveals nuanced interactions between the reform, firm size, and movable assets, suggesting differential effects on large and small enterprises. The study extends the Law and Finance literature, offering firm-level insights into the intricate dynamics between institutional changes and access to debt financing.