In writing this paper I benefited greatly from information provided by visiting scholars (at Berkeley) from the Soviet Union, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Yugoslavia. To them, and to the following friends and colleagues, I am deeply indebted not only for stimulating discussions and research cooperation but also for observations based on personal experience-particularly on issues of fundamental disagreement: Carlo M. Cipolla, Gerard Debreu, Howard S. Ellis, Oldrich Kyn, Abba P. Lerner, Mark Perlman, Richard Roehl, and Benjamin Ward.

Abstract I estimate the welfare benefits of eliminating idiosyncratic consumption shocks in the United States related (unrelated) to the business cycle as 36%–39% (lower than 1%) of household utility. Estimates of the former exceed earlier ones because I distinguish between idiosyncratic shocks related/unrelated to the business cycle, estimate the negative skewness of shocks, target moments of idiosyncratic shocks from household-level CEX data, and target market moments. Benefits of eliminating aggregate shocks are lower than 1% of utility. Policy should facilitate the insurance of idiosyncratic shocks related to the business cycle, such as job layoffs, with proof that individuals diligently seek suitable employment during periods of unemployment. (JEL D31, D52, E32, E44, G01, G12)

We find that the degree of expected idiosyncratic skewness in seasoned equity issuers’ stock returns is an important determinant of flotation costs and subsequent abnormal stock performance. High skewness issuers incur significantly greater offer price discounts, particularly when institutional share allocation is largest, pay higher gross underwriting spreads, and exhibit poorer stock performance in the three years after issuance, all compared to low skewness issuers. These results suggest that skewness-induced overpricing increases the flotation costs of seasoned equity offers and leads to poor subsequent stock performance. Received November 18, 2014; accepted December 17, 2015 by Editor Paolo Fulghieri.

We use bank-firm matched data to study how the capital buffers that large U.S. banks must satisfy to “pass” the Federal Reserve's stress tests impact banks’ lending and firms’ loan volumes, overall debt, investment, and employment. We find that larger stress-test capital buffers lead to reductions in banks’ lending, modest increases in loan rates and spreads, and reductions in new loan originations. However, we do not find an impact of higher capital buffers on firms’ overall debt, investment, and employment, suggesting that firms find other credit sources to substitute for the reduction in loans from banks that participate in the stress tests.

We present a novel methodology for estimating/testing the Bansal and Yaron (2004) and related long-run risks (LRR) models based on the observation that the latent state variables are known functions of observables. The large standard error of the estimated elasticity of intertemporal substitution explains the controversy on its magnitude. The model requires higher persistence of consumption and dividend growth to explain the cross-section of returns than that observed in the data. The model matches the unconditional moments of consumption and dividend growth, but implies a higher risk-free rate and lower volatility of the price/dividend ratio, risk-free rate, and market return than those observed in the data. Contrary to the model implications, the conditional variance of the LRR variable fails to capture the large time variation in the equity premium.

Abstract An extensive literature studies interactions of stock market anomalies using double-sorted portfolios. But given hundreds of known candidate anomalies, examining selected interactions is subject to a data mining critique. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of all possible double-sorted portfolios constructed from 102 underlying anomalies. We find hundreds of statistically significant anomaly interactions, even after accounting for multiple hypothesis testing. An out-of-sample trading strategy that invests in the top backward-looking double-sort strategy generates equal-weighted (value-weighted) monthly average returns of 4% (2.7%) at an annualized Sharpe ratio of 2 (1.38), on par with state-of-the-art anomaly-based machine learning strategies.

Abstract We examine real outcomes for biotech startups going public around the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act. Reduced compliance costs associate with greater innovation capital formation as biotech IPO volume and proceeds increase after the JOBS Act. Biotechs, which conduct over 30% of IPOs since 2012, go public with products earlier in the FDA approval process and more frequently target rare diseases and cancer. Consistent with our survey evidence that managers use compliance savings to invest in R&D, we link the JOBS Act to post-IPO increases in project-level development, such as new patents, clinical trials, and staffing of laboratories. Post-JOBS Act product candidates are more likely to reach key milestones in the FDA approval process and these startups fail at lower rates. Benefits accrue to shareholders without sacrificing financial reporting quality. Our results demonstrate how tailoring regulations for startups can provide economic and societal benefits. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Short sale constraints prior to seasoned equity offers, imposed by Rule 10b-21 in 1988, are believed to compromise pricing efficiency and contribute to the large temporal increase in offer price discounting. This study provides additional insights by examining shelf-registered offers, which were exempt from pre-issue short sale constraints until 2004. The results suggest that pre-issue short sale constraints do not influence the level of discounting in seasoned equity offers. Moreover, this study reports that the recent temporal increase in discounting is due to a greater prevalence of overnight shelf offers, which are associated with relatively large offer price discounts.