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Moving the Goalposts

Journal of Political Economy 2020 128(2), 468-506
We study information as an incentive device in a dynamic moral hazard framework. An agent works on a task of uncertain difficulty, modeled as the duration of required effort. The principal knows the task difficulty and provides information over time. The optimal mechanism features moving goalposts: an initial disclosure makes the agent sufficiently optimistic that the task is easy. If the task is indeed difficult, the agent is told this only after working long enough to put the difficult task within reach. The agent then completes the difficult task even though he never would have chosen to at the outset.

Harnessing the overconfidence of the crowd: A theory of SPACs

Journal of Financial Economics 2024 153, 103787
In a SPAC transaction, a sponsor raises financing from investors using redeemable shares and rights. When investors are sophisticated, these features dilute the sponsor's stake and can lead to underinvestment in profitable targets. However, when investors are overconfident about their ability to respond to interim news, the optionality in such features is overpriced, and SPACs can lead to over-investment in unprofitable targets. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model predicts different returns for short-term and long-term investors and overall underperformance. While some policy interventions (e.g., eliminating redemption rights, limiting investor access, and restricting warrants) improve returns for unsophisticated investors, others (e.g., increased disclosure) can be counterproductive.

The Market for Conflicted Advice

Journal of Finance 2020 75(2), 867-903
We present a model of the market for advice in which advisers have conflicts of interest and compete for heterogeneous customers through information provision. The competitive equilibrium features information dispersion and partial disclosure. Although conflicted fees lead to distorted information, they are irrelevant for customers' welfare: banning conflicted fees improves only the information quality, not customers' welfare. Instead, financial literacy education for the least informed customers can improve all customers' welfare because of a spillover effect. Furthermore, customers who trade through advisers realize lower average returns, which rationalizes empirical findings.