Michael Angus Walker, A Long-Term Econometric Model of the Canadian Economy with Emphasis on the Financial Sector: A Simulation Study of Some Alternative Policy Rules, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 27, No. 4 (Sep., 1972), pp. 956-957

Although several researchers have speculated that stock splits may affect the ownership structure of firms, there is very little empirical evidence available in this regard. We investigate a broad sample of stock splits by firms without confounding events, controlling for industry and size effects. Our results show that stock splits increase the numbers of both individual and institutional shareholders, and they do not affect the proportion of equity held by institutions. Further, changes in the numbers of individual and institutional shareholders are positively related to the split factor. Abnormal announcement returns are positively correlated with changes in the total number of shareholders. These findings support the signaling hypothesis.

We study the effects of intensifying competition for contracts in the context of US Defense procurement. Leveraging a discontinuous regulation that mandates agencies to publicize certain contract opportunities, we document that expanding the set of bidders reduces award prices but deteriorates post-award performance in terms of cost overruns and delays. We develop and estimate an auction model with endogenous entry and stochastic execution performance, in which the buyer endogenously chooses the intensity of competition. Model estimates indicate substantial heterogeneity in performance across contractors and show that simple adjustments to the current regulation could provide significant savings in procurement spending. (JEL D22, D24, D44, D82, D86, H56, H57)

A large literature has examined how best to target antipoverty programs to those most deprived in some sense (e.g., consumption). We examine the potential trade-off between this objective and targeting those most impacted by such programs. We work in the context of an NGO cash transfer program in Kenya, employing recent advances in machine learning methods and dynamic outcome data to learn proxy means tests that jointly target both objectives. Targeting solely on the basis of deprivation is not attractive in this setting under standard social welfare criteria unless the planner’s preferences are extremely redistributive. (JEL C45, D63, I31, I38, L31, O15)