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Using the Retail Distribution of Sellers to Impute Expenditure Shares

American Economic Review 2022 112(7), 2213-2236
Many price indices must be constructed without quantity data at the elementary level. The paper shows that for some consumer goods in the United States and other countries, one can approximate expenditure shares using weights derived from the retail distribution of sellers. These weights are based on the share of outlets selling an item, or the share of outlets adjusted by the total number of items sold in each. Relative to using no weights, the paper finds that using such imputed weights substantially reduces bias in the frequency of price changes, in annual inflation, and in price comparisons across countries.

Trade Liberalization and Chinese Students in U.S. Higher Education

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2025 107(5), 1291-1309
We highlight a lesser-known consequence of China’s integration into the world economy: the rise of services trade. We demonstrate how the United States’ trade deficit in goods cycles back as a surplus in U.S. exports of education services. Focusing on China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, we show that Chinese cities more exposed to trade liberalization sent more students to U.S. universities. Growth in housing income and wealth allowed Chinese families to afford U.S. tuition, and more students financed their studies using personal funds. Our estimates suggest that recent trade wars could cost U.S. universities around $1.1 billion in annual tuition revenue.