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The Long-Term Effects of Universal Preschool in Boston

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2022 138(1), 363-411
Abstract We use admissions lotteries to estimate the effects of large-scale public preschool in Boston on college-going, college preparation, standardized test scores, and behavioral outcomes. Preschool enrollment boosts college attendance as well as SAT test taking and high school graduation. Preschool also decreases high school disciplinary measures including juvenile incarceration, but has no detectable effect on state achievement test scores. An analysis of subgroups shows that effects on college enrollment, SAT-taking, and disciplinary outcomes are larger for boys than for girls. Our findings illustrate possibilities for large-scale modern, public preschool and highlight the importance of measuring long-term and non–test score outcomes in evaluating the effectiveness of education programs.

School Admissions Reform in Chicago and England: Comparing Mechanisms by their Vulnerability to Manipulation

American Economic Review 2013 103(1), 80-106
In Fall 2009, Chicago authorities abandoned a school assignment mechanism midstream, citing concerns about its vulnerability to manipulation. Nonetheless, they asked thousands of applicants to re-rank schools in a new mechanism that is also manipulable. This paper introduces a method to compare mechanisms by their vulnerability to manipulation. Our methodology formalizes how the old mechanism is at least as manipulable as any other plausible mechanism, including the new one. A number of similar transitions took place in England after the widely popular Boston mechanism was ruled illegal in 2007. Our approach provides support for these and other recent policy changes. (JEL C78, D82, H75, I21, I28)

Leveling the Playing Field: Sincere and Sophisticated Players in the Boston Mechanism

American Economic Review 2008 98(4), 1636-1652
Empirical and experimental evidence suggests different levels of sophistication among families in the Boston Public School student assignment plan. We analyze the preference revelation game induced by the Boston mechanism with sincere players who report their true preferences and sophisticated players who play a best response. We characterize the set of Nash equilibrium outcomes as the set of stable matchings of a modified economy, where sincere students lose priority to sophisticated students. Any sophisticated student weakly prefers her assignment under the Pareto-dominant Nash equilibrium of the Boston mechanism to her assignment under the recently adopted student-optimal stable mechanism. (JEL D82, I21)

Short interest, institutional ownership, and stock returns

Journal of Financial Economics 2005 78(2), 243-276
Stocks are short-sale constrained when there is a strong demand to sell short and a limited supply of shares to borrow. Using data on both short interest (a proxy for demand) and institutional ownership (a proxy for supply) we find that constrained stocks underperform during the period 1988–2002 by a significant 215 basis points per month on an equally weighted basis, although by only an insignificant 39 basis points per month on a value-weighted basis. For the overwhelming majority of stocks, short interest and institutional ownership levels make short selling constraints unlikely.

The Dynamics of Open-Source Contributors

American Economic Review 2006 96(2), 114-118
There are substantial differences between open-source projects and traditional innovative efforts in private firms. Private firms usually pay their workers, direct and manage their efforts, and control the output and intellectual property created. In an open-source project, however, a body of original material is made publicly available for others to use, under certain conditions. Contributions to open-source projects are made by a diverse array of individual contributors, and for-profit corporations, who must often agree to make enhancements to the original material widely available for nominal cost. This paper empirically examines the dynamics of contributions to open-source software projects. We show that the share of corporate contributions in a sample of approximately 100 open-source projects between 2001 and 2004 is greater in larger and growing projects.

Do Parents Value School Effectiveness?

American Economic Review 2020 110(5), 1502-1539
School choice may lead to improvements in school productivity if parents’ choices reward effective schools and punish ineffective ones. This mechanism requires parents to choose schools based on causal effectiveness rather than peer characteristics. We study relationships among parent preferences, peer quality, and causal effects on outcomes for applicants to New York City’s centralized high school assignment mechanism. We use applicants’ rank-ordered choice lists to measure preferences and to construct selection-corrected estimates of treatment effects on test scores, high school graduation, college attendance, and college quality. Parents prefer schools that enroll high-achieving peers, and these schools generate larger improvements in short- and long-run student outcomes. Preferences are unrelated to school effectiveness and academic match quality after controlling for peer quality. (JEL D12, H75, I21, I26, I28)

Redesigning the US Army’s Branching Process: A Case Study in Minimalist Market Design

American Economic Review 2024 114(4), 1070-1106
We present a proof-of-concept for minimalist market design (Sönmez 2023) as an effective methodology to enhance an institution based on stakeholders’ desiderata with minimal interference. Four objectives— respecting merit, increasing retention, aligning talent, and enhancing trust—guided reforms to the US Army’s centralized branching process of cadets to military specialties since 2006. USMA’s mechanism for the class of 2020 exacerbated challenges in implementing these objectives. Formulating the Army’s desiderata as rigorous axioms, we analyze their implications. Under our minimalist approach to institution redesign, the Army’s objectives uniquely identify a branching mechanism. Our design is now adopted at USMA and ROTC. (JEL D47, H56, J45)

The New York City High School Match

American Economic Review 2005 95(2), 364-367
mechanism to match over 90,000 entering students to public high schools each year. This paper makes a very preliminary report on the design process and the first year of operation, in academic year 2003-04, for students entering high school in Fall 2004. In the first year, only about 3,000 students had to be assigned to a school for which they had not indicated a preference, which is only 10 % of the number of such assignments the previous year. New York City has the largest public school system in the country, with over a million students. In 1969 the system was decentralized into over thirty community school districts. In the 1990s, the city began to take more centralized control, and in 2002, a newly reorganized NYCDOE began to reform many aspects of the school system. In May 2003, Dr. Jeremy Lack, then the NYCDOE Director of Strategic Planning, contacted one of us for advice on designing a new high school matching process. The NYCDOE was aware of the matching process for American physicians, the National Resident Matching Program (Roth 1984; Roth and Peranson 1999). They wanted to know if it could be appropriately adapted to the city’s schools. The three authors of the present paper (and, at several crucial junctures, also Tayfun Sönmez) advised (and often convinced) Dr.

Regression Discontinuity in Serial Dictatorship: Achievement Effects at Chicago's Exam Schools

American Economic Review 2017 107(5), 240-245
Many school and college admission systems use centralized mechanisms to allocate seats based on applicant preferences and school priorities. When tie-breaking uses non-randomly assigned criteria like distance or a test score, applicants with the same preferences and priorities are not directly comparable. The non-lottery setting does generate a kind of local random assignment that opens the door to regression discontinuity designs. This paper introduces a hybrid RD/propensity score empirical strategy that exploits quasi-experiments embedded in serial dictatorship, a mechanism widely used for college and selective K-12 school admissions. We use our approach to estimate achievement effects of Chicago's exam schools.