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Search-based peer firms: Aggregating investor perceptions through internet co-searches

Journal of Financial Economics 2015 116(2), 410-431
Applying a “co-search” algorithm to Internet traffic at the SEC׳s EDGAR website, we develop a novel method for identifying economically related peer firms and for measuring their relative importance. Our results show that firms appearing in chronologically adjacent searches by the same individual (Search-Based Peers or SBPs) are fundamentally similar on multiple dimensions. In direct tests, SBPs dominate GICS6 industry peers in explaining cross-sectional variations in base firms׳ out-of-sample: (a) stock returns, (b) valuation multiples, (c) growth rates, (d) R&D expenditures, (e) leverage, and (f) profitability ratios. We show that SBPs are not constrained by standard industry classification, and are more dynamic, pliable, and concentrated. We also show that co-search intensity captures the degree of similarity between firms. Our results highlight the potential of the collective wisdom of investors — extracted from co-search patterns — in addressing long-standing benchmarking problems in finance.

How Often Do Managers Withhold Information?

The Accounting Review 2020 95(4), 73-102
We estimate a dynamic model of voluntary disclosure, using annual management forecasts of earnings, that features a manager with price motives and an uncertain, but persistent, information endowment. Our estimates imply that: (1) managers face disclosure frictions 35 percent of the time; (2) conditional on being informed, managers withhold information 17 percent of the time; and (3) conditional on being silent, managers possess information 24 percent of the time. Managers' strategic withholding motives increase investors' uncertainty about earnings by 3 percent. We find that managers' price motives reduce strategic withholding by one-third in response to investors' increased skepticism in the event of non-disclosure.

The Limits and Consequences of Population Policy: Evidence from China's Wan Xi Shao Campaign

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2026
Most of China's fertility decline predates the famous One Child Policy — and instead occurred under its predecessor, the Wan Xi Shao, or Later, Longer, Fewer (LLF) campaign. Studying LLF's contribution to fertility and sex selection behavior, we find that LLF i) reduced China's total fertility rate by 0.95 births per woman (explaining 30.6% of its fertility decline), ii) doubled the use of male-biased fertility stopping rules, and iii) promoted postnatal selection (implying 180,000 previously unrecognized missing girls, or 19% of the total during our study period). Considering Chinese population policy to be extreme in global experience, our paper demonstrates the limits of population policy — and its potential human costs.