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Peers’ Income and Financial Distress: Evidence from Lottery Winners and Neighboring Bankruptcies

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(1), 433-472
We examine whether relative income differences among peers can generate financial distress. Using lottery winnings as plausibly exogenous variations in the relative income of peers, we find that the dollar magnitude of a lottery win of one neighbor increases subsequent borrowing and bankruptcies among other neighbors. We also examine which factors may mitigate lenders’ bankruptcy risk in these neighborhoods. We show that bankruptcy filers obtain more secured, but not unsecured, debt, and lenders provide additional credit to low-risk, but not high-risk, debtors. In addition, we find evidence consistent with local lenders taking advantage of soft information to mitigate credit risk. Received October 12, 2016; editorial decision January 15, 2019 by Editor Philip Strahan.

Can regulation de-bias appraisers?

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2020 44, 100827
This paper examines the effect of a regulatory action (the Home Valuation Code of Conduct) that was designed to reduce the incidence of inflated collateral valuations. We identify the impact of the regulation using a difference-in-difference identification strategy. Our baseline results confirm that the regulation reduced inflated valuations in refinance transactions by 16% in the large lender sample, compared to small lenders and a placebo sample. The effect is most significant in low-liquidity and low-distress markets, but not in other markets. We find that the regulation had a significant impact on loan to value ratio and interest rate, and it also led to a significant increase in defaults but a decrease in prepayments.

Disguised corruption: Evidence from consumer credit in China

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 137(2), 430-450
Using a comprehensive sample of credit card data from a leading Chinese bank, we show that government bureaucrats receive 16% higher credit lines than non-bureaucrats with similar income and demographics, but their accounts experience a significantly higher likelihood of delinquency and debt forgiveness. Regions associated with greater credit provision to bureaucrats open more branches and receive more deposits from the local government. After staggered corruption crackdowns of provincial-level political officials, the new credit cards originated to bureaucrats in exposed regions do not enjoy a credit line premium, and bureaucrats’ delinquency and reinstatement rates are similar to those of non-bureaucrats.

In the mood to consume: Effect of sunshine on credit card spending

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 121, 105960
Using a large, representative sample of high-frequency credit card transactions in the United States, this paper examines the causal effect of sunshine-induced mood on contemporaneous household credit card spending. We document a 0.3 percent increase in credit card spending in response to a one-unit increase in the same-day local abnormal sunshine. The spending response is stronger for consumers with higher credit card debt, lower FICO score, and shorter tenure with the bank. The effect manifests in long-term, durable goods spending, and is not driven by other weather conditions, complementarity between sunshine and consumption, or intentional choice of consumption time. We document similar responses of spending on seasonal and non-seasonal goods and during times with high and low sunshine levels. Finally, the sunshine effect occurs among consumers with various characteristics.