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The Value of Client Access to Analyst Recommendations

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2006 41(1), 1-24
Early access to stock recommendations provides brokerage firm clients with incremental investment value. After controlling for transaction costs, purchasing (selling) quickly following upgrades (downgrades) results in average two-day returns of 1.02% (1.50%). Short-term profit opportunities persist for two hours following the pre-market release of new recommendations. The results are robust within sub-periods and a calendar-based strategy produces positive abnormal daily returns of over 10 basis points, or roughly 30% annualized. Recommending firms' market makers shift their quotes accordingly, providing indirect evidence that clients make use of the informational advantage that arises from analysts' opinion changes.

Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices

Journal of Finance 2004 59(3), 1201-1233
This paper studies the impact of trading on government bond prices surrounding the release of macroeconomic news. The results show a significant increase in the informational role of trading following economic announcements, which suggests the release of public information increases the level of information asymmetry in the government bond market. The informational role of trading is greater after announcements with a larger initial price impact, and the relation is associated with the surprise component of the announcement and the precision of the public information. The results provide evidence that government bond order flow reveals fundamental information about riskless rates.

Market efficiency in real time

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 65(3), 415-437
The Morning Call and Midday Call segments on CNBC TV provide a unique opportunity to study the efficient market hypothesis. The segments report analysts’ views about individual stocks and are broadcast when the market is open. We find that prices respond to reports within seconds of initial mention, with positive reports fully incorporated within one minute. Trading intensity doubles in the first minute, with a significant increase in buyer- (seller-) initiated trades after positive (negative) reports. Traders who execute within 15 seconds of the initial mention make small but significant profits by trading on positive reports during the Midday Call.

Crowdsourced employer reviews and stock returns

Journal of Financial Economics 2019 134(1), 236-251
We find that firms experiencing improvements in crowdsourced employer ratings significantly outperform firms with declines. The return effect is concentrated among reviews from current employees, stronger among early firm reviews, and also stronger when the employee works in the headquarters state. Decomposing employer ratings, we find the return effect is related to changing employee assessments of Career Opportunities and views of senior management. It is unrelated to work-life balance. Employer rating changes are associated with growth in sales and profitability and help forecast one-quarter-ahead earnings announcement surprises. The evidence is consistent with employee reviews revealing fundamental information about the firm.

Company name fluency, investor recognition, and firm value

Journal of Financial Economics 2013 109(3), 813-834
Research from psychology suggests that people evaluate fluent stimuli more favorably than similar information that is harder to process. Consistent with fluency affecting investment decisions, we find that companies with short, easy to pronounce names have higher breadth of ownership, greater share turnover, lower transaction price impacts, and higher valuation ratios. Corporate name changes increase fluency on average, and fluency-improving name changes are associated with increases in breadth of ownership, liquidity, and firm value. Name fluency also affects other investment decisions, with fluently named closed-end funds trading at smaller discounts and fluent mutual funds attracting greater fund flows.

Price-based return comovement

Journal of Financial Economics 2009 93(1), 37-50
Similarly priced stocks move together. Stocks that undergo splits experience an increase in comovement with low-priced stocks and a decrease in their comovement with high-priced stocks. Price-based comovement is not explained by economic fundamentals, firm size, or changes in liquidity or information diffusion. The shift in comovement following splits is greater for large stocks, high-priced stocks, and when investor sentiment is high. In the full cross-section, price-based portfolios explain variation in stock-level returns after controlling for movements in the market and industry portfolios as well as portfolios based on size, book-to-market, transaction costs, and return momentum. The results suggest that investors categorize stocks based on price.

Market Risk and Model Risk for a Financial Institution Writing Options

Journal of Finance 1999 54(4), 1465-1499
Derivatives valuation and risk management involve heavy use of quantitative models. To develop a quantitative assessment of model risk as it affects the basic option writing strategy that might be followed by a financial institution, we conduct an empirical simulation, with and without hedging, using data from 1976 to 1996. Results indicate that imperfect models and inaccurate volatility forecasts create sizable risk exposure for option writers. We consider to what extent the damage due to model risk can be limited by pricing options using a higher volatility than the best estimate from historical data.

Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2001 36(4), 523
This paper uses intraday data from the interdealer government bond market to investigate the effects of scheduled macroeconomic announcements on prices, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads. We find that 17 public news releases, as measured by the surprise in the announced quantity, have a significant impact on the price of at least one of the following instruments: a three-month bill, a two-year note, a 10-year note, and a 30-year bond. These effects vary significantly according to maturity. Public news can explain a substantial fraction of price volatility in the aftermath of announcements, and the adjustment to news generally occurs within one minute after the announcement. We document significant and persistent increases in volatility and trading volume after the announcements. Bid-ask spreads, on the other hand, widen at the time of the announcements, but then revert to normal values after five to 15 minutes. The effects that we document have relevant implications for yield curve modeling and for the microstructure of bond markets. I.