Because firms’ takeover motives are unobservable to investors, mergers are only partially anticipated and often appear as mixed blessings for acquirers. I construct and estimate a model to study the causes and consequences of bid anticipation and information revelation in mergers. Controlling for the market’s reassessment of the acquirer’s stand-alone value, I estimate that acquirers gain 4% from a typical merger. The total value of an active merger market averages 13% for acquirers, part of which is capitalized in their pre-merger market values. My model also explains the correlation between announcement returns and firm characteristics, as well as the low predictability of mergers.

We examine how labor power affects a firm’s takeover exposure and merger gains. Using a regression discontinuity design that relies on “locally” exogenous variation in labor power generated by close-call union elections, we find that increased labor power significantly reduces a firm’s takeover exposure, reduces target offer premium and announcement returns, and prolongs deal completion duration. The results are stronger for more powerful and conflict-provoking unions. Bidders of unionized targets are experienced, are tough negotiators, and face fewer union threats by themselves. Our paper provides new insights into the real effects of shareholder-employee conflict regarding the market for corporate control. (JEL G34, G30, J51) Received: February 9, 2019; editorial decision January 15, 2020 by Editor Isil Erel.

If opportunistic acquirers can buy targets using overvalued shares, then there is an inefficiency in the merger and acquisition (M&A) market: the most overvalued rather than the highest-synergy bidder may buy the target. We quantify this inefficiency using a structural estimation approach. We find that the M&A market allocates resources efficiently on average. Opportunistic bidders crowd out high-synergy bidders in only 7% of transactions, resulting in an average synergy loss equal to 9% of the target’s value in these inefficient deals. The implied average loss across all deals is 0.63%. Although the inefficiency is small on average, it is large for certain deals, and it is larger when misvaluation is more likely. Even when opportunistic bidders lose the contest, they drive up prices, imposing a large negative externality on the winning synergistic bidders.

How does firm-specific human capital shape careers in the finance industry? We build a dynamic model where workers accumulate portable and nonportable (firm-specific) human capital and learn about their match quality with employers. Estimating the model using granular data on M&A advisory bankers, we show that a large fraction of bankers’ human capital is nonportable, ranging from 12% to 46% across different firm types. Bankers make a dynamic trade-off between portability and returns on human capital, leading to time-varying job preferences over their life cycle. Our results have broad implications for careers in finance and the provision of financial services.

High expected inflation is known to predict low future real growth. We show that, relative to nondurable goods sectors of the economy, such predictability is significantly more pronounced in durable sectors. Consistent with this macroeconomic evidence, the equity returns of durable goods-producing firms have a larger negative exposure to expected inflation risks. We estimate a two-good recursive utility model that features persistent growth fluctuations and inflation nonneutrality for durable and nondurable consumption. Our model can quantitatively account for the levels and volatilities of bond and equity prices, and correlations of equity returns with bond returns and with expected inflation.

Acquiring innovation through M&A is subject to information frictions, as assessing the value of innovative targets is a challenging task. We find an inverted U-shaped relation between firm innovation and takeover exposure; equity usage increases with target innovation; and the deal completion rate drops with innovation. We develop and estimate a model of acquiring innovation under information frictions, featuring endogenous merger, innovation, and offer composition decisions. Our estimates suggest that acquirers’ due diligence reveals only 30% of private information possessed by targets. Eliminating information frictions increases capitalized merger gains by 59%, stimulates innovation, and boosts productivity, business dynamism, and social welfare.

How efficient is corporate bankruptcy in the United States? Two frictions, asymmetric information and conflicts of interest among creditors, can cause several inefficiencies: excess liquidation, excess continuation, and excess delay. We find large bankruptcy inefficiencies, mainly due to excess delay. Eliminating information asymmetries would increase average total payouts by 4%, and eliminating conflicts of interest would increase them by 18% more. Without these frictions, 14% more cases would be resolved pre-court, and court cases would be 73% shorter. With less delay, bankruptcy’s indirect costs would be much lower. In contrast, inefficiencies from excess liquidation and excess continuation are quite small.

This paper studies the value of a firm’s internal information when the firm faces an adverse selection problem arising from unobservable managerial abilities. Although more precise information allows the firm to make ex post more efficient investment decisions, noisier information has an ex ante screening effect that allows the firm to attract on-average better managers. The tradeoff between more effective screening of managers and more informed investment implies a nonmonotonic relationship between firm value and information quality. A marginal improvement in information quality does not necessarily lead to an overall improvement in firm value.