Knowledge that Transforms

This paper proposes a forward-looking model for time-varying capital requirements, which finds application within Basel II. The model rests on the relationship between default rates and the business cycle: by positing two regimes, expansion and recession, and by forecasting the associated probabilities, the default probability for each rating class is defined as the expected value of a default rate whose distribution is a mixture of an expansion and a recession distribution. The application to US data over the forecasting period 1971–2002 provides evidence that the model makes it possible to preserve the risk sensitivity of the capital requirement and at the same time to dampen procyclicality.

Recent research connects lending booms with increased risks of banking and currency crisis. Another strand of literature connects financial deepening with long-term growth. Together, these findings pose dilemmas for policymakers. In the case of Croatia, we find that rapid loan growth increased the probability of credit quality deterioration and stimulated current account and foreign debt problems. Conventional monetary tightening was not very effective, due to capital inflows. Unconventional measures such as capital controls also had limited effectiveness. We propose limiting negative impacts by pro-active monetary policy, more restrictive fiscal policy and increased capital requirements for fast-growing banks, rather than measures to prevent lending booms ex-ante.

This study documents a significant positive announcement effect for a unique capital raising tool, stand alone warrants, in the Australian market. The result is consistent with the models of Schultz [J. Financ. Econom. 34 (1993) 109] and Mayers [J. Financ. Econom. 47 (1998) 83] where a warrant is viewed positively by the market. The results of the model developed to analyse the determinants of the announcement effect, support variants of the information asymmetry hypothesis (proxied by major shareholder pre-commitment and issue size).

Using an international database containing 103 German, UK and US ethical mutual funds we review and extend previous research on ethical mutual fund performance. By applying a Carhart multi-factor model [Carhart, Journal of Finance 57 (1997) 57] we overcome the benchmark problem most prior ethical studies suffered from. After controlling for investment style, we find no evidence of significant differences in risk-adjusted returns between ethical and conventional funds for the 1990–2001 period. Our results also suggest that ethical mutual funds underwent a catching up phase, before delivering financial returns similar to those of conventional mutual funds. Finally, our performance estimates are robust to the inclusion of ethical indexes, which, surprisingly, are not incrementally capable of explaining ethical mutual fund return variation.

This paper examines implied parameters from options on LIBOR futures. Jump-diffusion models are found to offer superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance when compared to their pure diffusion counterpart. The need to incorporate stochastic jump magnitudes into LIBOR dynamics is also documented. In addition, empirical evidence reveals that the jump component in LIBOR rates is important for pricing their derivatives. Furthermore, variation in jump risk often coincides with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and a small subset of macroeconomic announcements.

This paper measures the effects of the risks associated with the war in Iraq on various US financial variables using a heteroskedasticity-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in war risk caused declines in Treasury yields and equity prices, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This “war risk” factor accounted for a considerable portion of the variances of these financial variables over the three months leading up to the arrival of coalition forces in central Baghdad.

We assess the effect of privatization on performance in a panel of Nigerian banks for the period 1990–2001. We find evidence of performance improvement in nine banks that were privatized, which is remarkable given the inhospitable environment for true financial intermediation. Our results also suggest negative effects of the continuing minority government ownership on the performance of many Nigerian banks. Finally, our results complement aggregate indications of decreasing financial intermediation over the 1990s; banks that focused on investment in government bonds and non-lending activities enjoyed a relatively better performance.

We examine how political, institutional, and economic factors are related to a country’s decision to privatize state-owned banks. Using a panel of 101 countries from 1982 to 2000, we find that political factors significantly affect the likelihood of bank privatization only in developing countries. Specifically, in non-OECD countries, bank privatization is more likely the more accountable the government is to its people. In contrast, none of our political variables affects the bank privatization decision in developed countries. Economic factors (such as the quality of the nation’s banking sector) are significant determinants of bank privatization in both OECD and non-OECD nations.

We examine the influence of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on the dynamic process of stock market integration over the period 2 January 1989–29 May 2003 using a bivariate EGARCH framework with time-varying conditional correlations. We find that there has been a clear regime shift in European stock market integration with the introduction of the EMU. The EMU has been necessary for stock market integration as unidirectional causality was found. Linear systems regression analysis shows that the increase in both regional and global stock market integration over this period was significantly driven in part, by macroeconomic convergence associated with the introduction of the EMU and financial development levels.

This paper examines the wealth effects of financial-institution strategic alliances on the shareholders of the newly allied firms. Our paper is different from most previous studies, in that we focus on financial institutions, we employ Japanese data for the late 1990s, and we study whether different types of alliances result in differing magnitudes of stock market responses. We find that a strategic alliance, on average, increases the value of the partner firms. Second, the gains from the alliance are spread more widely among the partners than would be suggested by a random alternative. Third, smaller partners tend to experience larger percentage gains. Fourth, the market values inter-group alliance announcements more than intra-group alliance announcements. Fifth, we do not find a significant difference in the abnormal returns shown by domestic–foreign alliances and domestic–domestic alliances.