Knowledge that Transforms

In 1955, Herbert Simon introduced the notion of satisficing: an agent satisfices by searching for an alternative that meets an aspiration level but does not optimize. We survey more than 60 years of advances in understanding satisficing in economics, psychology, and management, identifying two research traditions that address two classes of situations: under risk, satisficing is typically inferior to optimization strategies and modeled according to the neoclassical framework; under uncertainty, satisficing strategies are often derived empirically and can be highly effective. We integrate the two research traditions and show the conditions under which satisficing can be rational. (JEL D11, D80, D90)

We study the mental health of graduate students at eight top-ranked economics PhD programs in the United States using clinically validated surveys. We find that 24.8 percent experience moderate or severe symptoms of depression or anxiety—more than two times the population average. Though our response rate was 45.1 percent and sample selection concerns exist, conservative lower bounds nonetheless suggest higher prevalence rates of such symptoms than in the general population. Mental health issues are especially prevalent at the end of the PhD program: 36.7 percent of students in years 6+ of their program experience moderate or severe symptoms of depression or anxiety, versus 21.2 percent of first-year students. Of economics students with these symptoms, 25.2 percent are in treatment, compared to 41.4 percent of graduate students in other programs. A similar percentage of economics students (40–50 percent) say they cannot honestly discuss mental health with advisers as say they cannot easily discuss nonacademic career options with them. Only 26 percent find their work to be useful always or most of the time, compared to 70 percent of economics faculty and 63 percent of the working age population. We provide recommendations for students, faculty, and administrators on ways to improve graduate student mental health. (JEL A23, I12, I18, I23)

This paper evaluates the literature on international unconventional monetary policies (UMPs). Introducing market segmentation, limits-to-arbitrage, and time-consistent policy in standard models permits a theoretical role for UMP. Empirical studies provide compelling evidence that UMPs influenced international asset prices and tail risk in the desired manner. Calibrated modeling and vector autoregressive (VAR) exercises imply that these policies also improved macroeconomic outcomes. We assess the recent debate on the empirical evidence and discuss central bank assessments of UMP. Despite qualified successes, we recommend that UMP be reserved for crises and/or when the zero bound constrains conventional monetary policy. (JEL E31, E43, E44, E52, E58, G12, G21)

Tobacco regulation has been a major component of health policy in the developed world since the UK Royal College of Physicians' and the US Surgeon General's reports in the 1960s. Such regulation, which has intensified in the past two decades, includes cigarette taxation, place-based smoking bans in areas ranging from bars and restaurants to workplaces, and regulations designed to make tobacco products less desirable. More recently, the availability of alternative products, most notably e-cigarettes, has increased dramatically, and these products are just starting to be regulated. Despite an extensive body of research on tobacco regulations, there remains substantial debate regarding their effectiveness, and ultimately, their impact on economic welfare. We provide the first comprehensive review of the state of research in the economics of tobacco regulation in two decades.

The mathematical framework of psychological game theory is useful for describing many forms of motivation where preferences depend directly on one’s own or others’ beliefs. It allows for incorporating, for example, emotions, reciprocity, image concerns, and self-esteem in economic analysis. We explain how and why, discussing basic theory, experiments, applied work, and methodology. (JEL C70, D83, D91)

Since its launch in 2009 much has been written about Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and blockchains. While the discussions initially took place mostly on blogs and other popular media, we now are witnessing the emergence of a growing body of rigorous academic research on these topics. By the nature of the phenomenon analyzed, this research spans many academic disciplines including macroeconomics, law and economics, and computer science. This survey focuses on the microeconomics of crypto-currencies themselves. What drives their supply, demand, trading price, and competition amongst them? This literature has been emerging over the past decade and the purpose of this paper is to summarize its main findings so as to establish a base upon which future research can be conducted. (JEL D82, E42, G12)

Current Editorial Board:Pierre Azoulay, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyOlivier Coibion, University of Texas, AustinWill Dobbie (Co-Chair), Harvard UniversityRaymond Fisman (Co-Chair), Boston UniversityBenjamin R. Handel, University of California, BerkeleyBrian A. Jacob, University of MichiganKareen Rozen, Brown UniversityXiaoxia Shi, University of Wisconsin–MadisonTavneet Suri, MITDaniel Xu, Duke UniversityRecently Retired from the Editorial Board:Rema N. Hanna (Co-Chair), Harvard UniversityShachar Kariv, University of California, BerkeleyTable 1—Manuscripts Submitted and Published, 2017–2021This table shows the trends in papers submitted and published over the past five years. The journal has seen increased growth in paper submissions: 14% in 2018, 11% in 2019, and 25% in 2020. Submission numbers remained steady in 2021. The number of published papers has remained steady, ranging from 65 to 70 papers per year.Table 2—Status of Manuscripts by Year of Submission, 2017–2021This table shows the status of manuscripts submitted over the past five years. The papers summarily rejected remained steady, ranging from 54% to 62% of papers submitted. The percent of papers sent out for review but ultimately rejected has remained steady, ranging from 29% to 35% of papers. Acceptance rates range from 7% to 8% of papers submitted. Papers submitted in 2021 have not had enough time to accurately reflect the acceptance rate.Table 3—Decision Time for Manuscripts Sent to Referees for ReviewThis table reports the decision time for manuscripts sent to referees for review over the past five years. In 2018, the average decision time for papers that were sent to referees was 95 days. The average decision time in 2021 improved to 86 days. In addition, the decision time at the right tail improved substantially.Table 4—Distribution of First Decision Times by Submission YearThis table includes all first-round paper submissions and shows the distribution of decision times in monthly increments for the past five years. This table also reflects the improvement in the journal's decision turnaround times. In 2021, 86% of manuscripts received a decision within three months and 99% within five months.Table 5—Subject Matter of Published Manuscripts, 2021This table shows the distribution of the subject matter of papers published in 2021. Published papers covered a variety of subjects, but the most common were microeconomics and macro- and monetary economics. Table 1.Manuscripts Submitted and Published, 2017–2021YearSubmittedPublished20171,0496820181,2007020191,3306620201,6666520211,67465

Many development programs that attempt to disseminate improved technologies are limited in duration because of external funding constraints or an assumption of impact sustainability, but there is limited evidence on whether and when terminating such programs is efficient. We provide novel experimental evidence on the impacts of a randomized phaseout of an agricultural extension and subsidy program that promotes improved inputs and cultivation practices among smallholder women farmers in Uganda. We find that phaseout does not diminish the use of either practices or inputs as farmers shift purchases from NGO-sponsored village-based supply networks to market sources. These results indicate that short-term interventions can suffice to trigger persistent effects, consistent with models of technology adoption that emphasize learning from experience.

The existence of collective reputation implies an important externality. Among firms trading internationally, quality shocks about one firm's products could affect the demand of other firms from the same origin country. We study such a reputation spillover in the context of a large-scale scandal that affected the Chinese dairy industry in 2008. Leveraging detailed firm-product level administrative data and official quality inspection reports, we document sizable reputation spillovers on uncontaminated firms. We further investigate potential mechanisms that could mediate the strength of collective reputation, including information accuracy, observability of the supply chain, and prior export experience.

Since the Great Recession in 2007–2009, U.S. real GDP has failed to return to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due to hysteresis effects from the Great Recession, a persistent negative output gap following the recession, or slower trend growth for other reasons. To do so, we develop a new Markov-switching time series model of output growth that accommodates two different types of recessions: those that permanently alter the level of real GDP and those with only temporary effects. We also account for structural change in trend growth. Estimates from our model suggest that the Great Recession generated a large, persistent negative output gap rather than any substantial hysteresis effects, with the economy eventually recovering to a lower trend path that appears to be due to a reduction in productivity growth that began prior to the onset of the Great Recession.