Knowledge that Transforms

Empirical analyses of parimutuel betting markets have documented that market probabilities of favorites (longshots) tend to underestimate (overestimate) the corresponding empirical probabilities. We argue that this favorite-longshot bias is consistent with bettors taking simultaneous positions on the basis of private information about the likelihood of different outcomes. The ex post realization of a high market probability indicates favorable information about the occurrence of an outcome—and the opposite is true for longshots. This explanation for the bias relies on the bettors' inability to incorporate the surprise revealed by the final odds. (JEL D81, D82, L83)

This paper assesses the role of heating entitlements in generating stark air quality differences across China. During the 1950-1980 central planning period, the Chinese government established free winter heating of homes and offices as a basic right via the provision of free coal fuel for boilers. The combustion of coal in boilers is associated with the release of air pollutants, especially total suspended particulates (TSP). Due to budgetary limitations, however, this heating entitlement was only extended to areas to the north of the line formed by the Huai River and Qinling Mountains in central China. We find this procrustean policy led to dramatically higher TSP levels in the north; the difference is roughly 5-8 times current TSP concentrations in the US. This result holds both in a cross-sectional regression discontinuity-style estimation approach and in a panel data setting that compares the marginal effect of winter temperature on TSP in northern and southern China. In contrast, we fail to find evidence that the heating policy has a meaningful impact on sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) concentrations.

We investigate the size of the consumption drop at retirement in Italy by exploiting pension eligibility information to correct for endogenous retirement. We take a regression discontinuity approach and assume that spending would be smooth around pension eligibility if individuals did not retire. We estimate a 9.8 percent drop associated to retirement. This fall is not driven by liquidity problems for the less well off and can be accounted for by drops in work-related expenses. Retirement also induces a significant drop in the number of grown children living with their parents and this explains most of the retirement consumption drop. (JEL D91, E21, J26, J31)

This paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to, subject to a constraint on information flow. When idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions, firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions. When we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data, prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks, but only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks. Nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects. (JEL D21, D83, E31, E52)

Approaches to Estimating the Health State Dependence of the Utility Function by Amy Finkelstein, Erzo F. P. Luttmer and Matthew J. Notowidigdo. Published in volume 99, issue 2, pages 116-21 of American Economic Review, May 2009

The textbook version of the life-cycle permanent income hypothesis with no liquidity constraints predicts that consumption should react very little to transitory shocks to income and very strongly to permanent shocks. This prediction has important policy implications, i.e., to understand the response of consumers to tax rebates or increases that are made for stabilization purposes. In recent years there has been a resurgence of interest in estimating these important parameters, either using quasi-experimental data (such as randomization of the timing when tax rebate checks are received by households, see Christian Broda and

The design of the New York City (NYC) high school match involved trade-offs among efficiency, stability, and strategy-proofness that raise new theoretical questions. We analyze a model with indifferences—ties—in school preferences. Simulations with field data and the theory favor breaking indifferences the same way at every school—single tiebreaking—in a student-proposing deferred acceptance mechanism. Any inefficiency associated with a realized tiebreaking cannot be removed without harming student incentives. Finally, we empirically document the extent of potential efficiency loss associated with strategy-proofness and stability, and direct attention to some open questions. (JEL C78, D82, I21)

South Africa's Post-apartheid Two-Step: Social Demands versus Macro Stability by Brahima Coulibaly and Trevon D. Logan. Published in volume 99, issue 2, pages 275-81 of American Economic Review, May 2009

In a market-based financial system, banking and capital market developments are inseparable, and funding conditions are closely tied to fluctuations in the leverage of market-based financial intermediaries. Offering a window on liquidity, the balance sheet growth of broker-dealers provides a sense of the availability of credit. Contractions of broker-dealer balance sheets have tended to precede declines in real economic growth, even before the current turmoil. For this reason, balance sheet quantities of market-based financial intermediaries are important macroeconomic state variables for the conduct of monetary policy.

Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates by Melissa Dell, Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken. Published in volume 99, issue 2, pages 198-204 of American Economic Review, May 2009