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Intraday Lead-Lag Relationships Between the Futures-, Options and Stock Market

Review of Finance 1998 1(3), 337-359 open access
In rational, efficiently functioning and complete markets, returns on derivative and underlying securities should be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Due to market imperfections, one of these markets may reflect information faster. The use of high-frequency data and the choice for a small unit time interval to measure these lead-lag relations comes at the cost of some or many missing observations, causing traditional estimators to either under- or overestimate covariances and correlations. We use a new estimator to estimate lead-lag relationships between the cash AEX index, options and futures. We find that futures returns lead both options and cash index returns by approximately 10 minutes. The relationship between options and the cash market is not completely unidirectional.

Classification shifting using income-decreasing special items: measurement and valuation issues

Review of Accounting Studies 2024 29(3), 2871-2926 open access
Research suggests that the standard model used to detect opportunistic shifting of core expenses to special items is potentially biased. Such bias has been attributed to the use of accruals, including special item related accruals, as a control for the impact of performance on core earnings in this model. This paper provides an improved classification shifting model which both tests for such accruals-related bias and controls for other sources of error in the measurement of shifting. The paper also modifies conventional market rationality tests in accounting research to examine new dimensions of rationality in relation to measurement and valuation of shifting. The main empirical findings are as follows. First, the improved classification shifting model provides strong evidence of shifting and rejects the hypothesis that inclusion of accruals in the model causes bias. Second, estimates of shifted core expenses generated by the improved model exhibit forecasting properties of shifted earnings. Third, rationality test results are broadly consistent with rationality in relation to shifted core expenses but indicate possible partial (ir)rationality in relation to adjusted special items (i.e., special items excluding shifted core expenses). Further analysis of the latter findings, however, suggests they are more likely related to risk than irrationality. Overall, the paper contributes to improved measurement of shifting and highlights the importance of considering rational expectations when examining stock returns associated with shifting.

Job Referral Networks and the Determination of Earnings in Local Labor Markets

Journal of Labor Economics 2015 33(1), 1-32 open access
Despite their documented importance in the labor market, little is known about how workers use social networks to find jobs and their resulting effect on earnings. I use geographically detailed US employer-employee data to infer the role of social networks in connecting workers to jobs in high-paying firms. To identify social interactions in job search, I exploit variation in social network quality within small neighborhoods. Workers are more likely to change jobs, and more likely to move to a higher-paying firm, when their neighbors are employed in high-paying firms. Furthermore, local referral networks help match high-ability workers to high-paying firms.

The Economic Implications of Public Disability Insurance in the United States

Journal of Labor Economics 1993 11(1, Part 2), S170-S200 open access
A review of previous analyses of labor supply effects of Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) concludes that estimates of labor supply effects and net social costs are upward biased because they ignore interactions between DI and other insurances. A model of optimal insurance, postinjury accommodations, and labor supply shows that reduction in labor supply and increase in consumption when disabled do not necessarily imply moral hazard. Optimal postinjury accommodations vary inversely with firm size. The Americans with Disabilities Act will reduce wages and labor supply of healthy workers, particularly in small firms. Effects on labor supply of the disabled are ambiguous.

Educational Financing and Lifetime Earnings

Review of Economic Studies 2004 71(4), 1189-1216 open access
This paper formulates and estimates a dynamic programming model of optimal educational financing decisions. The main purpose of the paper is to measure the effect of short-term parental cash transfers, received during school, on educational borrowing and in-school work decisions, and on post-graduation lifetime earnings. The estimated parameters of the model imply that parental cash transfers do not significantly influence post-graduation lifetime earnings. Long-term factors such as family background and prior human capital investments are more important. Parental cash transfers do, however, significantly determine the decision to borrow or work during school and the level of lifetime consumption.

On the Simultaneous Existence of Full and Partial Capital Aggregates

Review of Economic Studies 1983 50(1), 197 open access
Earlier work on aggregate production functions with capital-embodied technology showed that, when firms employ more than one capital type, conditions for partial capital ("equipment") aggregation and for total capital aggregation differ. This paper studies simultaneously existing partial and total aggregates. Existence of a total and one partial aggregate implies existence of the complementary partial aggregate. However, simultaneous existence requires each firm's production function to be strongly separable in its capital subaggregates. The use of subaggregates like "equipment" and "plant" together with an aggregate "capital" thus implies that "plant" and "equipment" are perfect substitutes and is highly questionable.

Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources

Review of Economic Studies 1974 41, 29 open access
Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources Get access R. M. Solow R. M. Solow Massachusetts Institute of Technology Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 41, Issue 5, December 1974, Pages 29–45, https://doi.org/10.2307/2296370 Published: 01 December 1974

A Four-Flagged Lemma

Review of Economic Studies 1972 39(4), 487-490 open access
RES (Review of Economic Studies) , January, 1971, concerning whether or not Gorman's Lemma 1 (RES, 1968) can be strengthened by re-laxing Gorman's assumption of arc-connectivity for the space of prospects to connectivity alone. A lemma is proved showing the mentioned relaxation feasible and furnishing proof for Gorman's Lemma 1. This supplies a missing foundation stone of Gorman's "Structure of Utility Functions " and generalizes the results therein.