Knowledge that Transforms

We study a dynamic model of duopoly in which firms choose both prices and quantities. If quantity (capacity) choices are relatively inflexible, firms generally carry excess (idle) capacity in equilibrium. Because of this enforcement cost, firms are unable to achieve monopoly levels. This contrasts with models in which which firms compete in either prices or quantities alone. On the other hand, if capacities are flexible firms may be able to sustain monopoly behaviour.

In a dynamic economy land and capital serve not only as factors of production but as assets which individuals use to transfer income from workinq periods to retirement. Static models of international trade based on the specific-factors model incorporate only the first of these. Once the second is recognized the supply of capital and evaluation of land can be derived from underlying intertemporal optimization behavior.

Imagine that one player, the “incumbent” competes with several “entrants”. Each entrant competes only with the incumbent, but observes play in all contests. Previous work shows that, as more and more entrants are added, the incumbent's reputation may dominate play of the game, if the entrants are faced in sequence. We identify conditions under which similar results obtain when the entrants are faced simultaneously, and we find specifications in which adding more simultaneous entrants has a dramatically different effect. We also show that, with either sequential or simultaneous play, incumbents need not prefer the situation in which their reputations can and do dominate play to the “informationally isolated” case in which each entrant observes only play in its own contest.

Research on strategic planning has been handicapped by lack of an appropriate operationalizing scheme for measuring the success of planning systems. In this paper, an operational model for measuring planning system success is developed in terms of two interrelated dimensions—improvements in the capabilities of the planning system and extent of fulfillment of key planning objectives. Multiple items reflecting these dimensions are proposed. Construct validity of the two dimensions are evaluated by applying Jöreskog's analysis of covariance structures approach on data on the planning practices of 202 strategic planning units. Validated measurement schemes for the two model dimensions are offered for use in future research efforts on strategic planning effectiveness.

The mean return for stocks is positive only for days immediately before and during the first half of calendar months, and indistinguishable from zero for days during the last half of the month. This ‘monthly effect’ is independent of other known calendar anomalies such as the January effect documented by others and appears to be caused by a shift in the mean of the distribution of returns from days in the first half of the month relative to days in the last half.

The essence of corporate control includes the hiring and firing of key managers. We examine changes in equity values when the Board of Directors appoints and dismisses top-level managers. The evidence suggests that management changes signal shifts in company policy and raise shareholder wealth, internal promotions confirm the soundness of investment by large companies in firm-specific human capital while external appointments do not, promotions occur more often than external appointments but decline in importance as firm size decreases, and dismissal is not a favored means to handle managerial underperformance but is associated with stock price increases when used.

This paper hypothesizes that the relation between stock returns and inflation is caused by the equilibrium process in the monetary sector. More importantly, these relations vary over time in a systematic manner depending on the influence of money demand and supply factors. Post-war evidence from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany indicates that the negative stock return-inflation relations are caused by money demand and counter-cyclical money supply effects. On the other hand, pro-cyclical movements in money, inflation, and stock prices during the 1930's lead to relations which are either positive or insignificant.

In monthly U.S. data for 1959–1979 and 1979–1983, the state of the term structure of interest rates predicts excess stock returns, as well as excess returns on bills and bonds. This paper documents this fact and uses it to examine some simple asset pricing models. In 1959–1979, the data strongly reject a single-latent-variable specification of predictable excess returns. There is considerable evidence that conditional variances of excess returns change through time, but the relationship between conditional mean and conditional variance is reliably positive only at the short end of the term structure.

This paper examines possible motives for and consequences of voluntary corporate liquidations. Specifically, the procedural and tax differences between voluntary liquidations and other control-changing transaction devices are analyzed. An empirical investigation of successful liquidations shows that the announcement of liquidation reduces the risk of liquidating shares, that the shareholders receive substantial gains from successful liquidations, and that the average gains to the acquiring shareholders are not significantly different from zero. These findings suggest that the liquidating firms' assets have been underutilized before liquidation and that voluntary liquidations lead to higher-valued reallocations of corporate resources.

This paper examines the relation between stock returns and stock market volatility. We find evidence that the expected market risk premium (the expected return on a stock portfolio minus the Treasury bill yield) is positively related to the predictable volatility of stock returns. There is also evidence that unexpected stock market returns are negatively related to the unexpected change in the volatility of stock returns. This negative relation provides indirect evidence of a positive relation between expected risk premiums and volatility.